Bucky's Breakdown: Bills, Bengals could threaten Chiefs in AFC
By Bucky Brooks
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
There is nothing like watching football during the holiday season. Some of my best memories with family and friends have taken place while sharing a festive meal in front of a TV watching a competitive game.
This year was no different, with a smorgasbord of games with playoff implications taking place over the holiday weekend. With players and teams turning up the intensity to make a final push for the postseason tournament, the do-or-die nature of these games made for must-see TV.
After taking some time to gather my thoughts and review my notes, here are my observations from Week 16.
FIVE THINGS THAT LOOKED GOOD
1. Joe Burrow is big time
Quarterbacks selected with the No. 1 overall pick are expected to play like big-time players. Joe Burrow’s sensational game in Cincinnati's 41-21 victory over the Ravens confirmed his status as a five-star player in this league.
Sure, the second-year pro has put up big numbers routinely, but carving up the Ravens for the second time this season should earn him a helmet sticker from the Bengals' coaches.
Burrow threw for 525 yards, the fourth-most ever in an NFL game, on 37-for-46 passing with four touchdowns and no interceptions. The flawless performance showcased the young quarterback’s ability to dissect a defense with a series of accurate throws at every range.
With a talented cast of pass-catchers and playmakers dominating their one-on-one matchups on the perimeter — as evidenced by Tee Higgins (12 catches, 194 yards and two scores), Ja'Marr Chase (seven catches, 125 yards) and Tyler Boyd (three catches, 85 yards and a score) combining for 22 catches, 404 yards and three scores — the former high school basketball standout played the game like a point guard running the break in the open court.
Against an undermanned Ravens defense led by a coordinator (Wink Martindale) who made a snide remark about Burrow’s talent and gold jacket potential, the young quarterback let his play do the talking with a performance that will push him into consideration as a top-five QB.
2. The Cowboys bring their A-game
The football world has been slow to embrace "America’s Team" as a Super Bowl contender, but a 56-14 dismantling of the Washington Football Team showcased the Cowboys' potential when they play their best football.
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The Cowboys dominated the game in each phase, with the offense, defense and kicking units earning high marks. The offense was expected to crush opponents with Dak Prescott throwing darts to arguably the best receiving corps in the game, but it's the emergence of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott as an explosive tandem out of the backfield that has given the unit much-needed balance.
Defensively, Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs, Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory headline an opportunistic unit that specializes in taking the ball away and producing negative plays (sacks, tackles for loss and QB hits). The quartet made their presence known against Washington with a series of splash plays, including a pick-six by Lawrence and another interception by Diggs that set the tone in the first half.
The special teams got in on the action with a Corey Clement blocked punt that also resulted in a score. With the Cowboys dominating every phase of their game after clinching the division earlier in the day, the rest of the NFC should pay close attention to the Super Bowl contenders emerging in Dallas.
3. Josh Allen plays like an MVP
The Bills’ QB1 is not a viable contender for the MVP award this season, but he certainly played like the best player in the league in Buffalo's 33-21 victory over the Patriots.
Allen took over the game with a combination of traditional drop-back throws and improvisational plays that enabled the Bills to seize control of the division. The fourth-year pro delicately toed the line between gunslinger and caretaker while making a series of big plays that extended drives and helped the offense put points on the board.
From connecting with Stefon Diggs (seven catches, 85 receiving yards and a score) and Isaiah McKenzie (11 catches, 125 receiving yards and a score) to his impromptu runs (12 rushes for 64 yards), Allen dominated the game as the Bills’ primary playmaker. Bill Belichick could not find a way to slow him down. Whether the Patriots attacked with pressure or sat back in soft zones, No. 17 found cracks and creases that enabled him to move the chains against a defense that stymied the Bills a few weeks ago.
Given the importance of the game, Allen’s spectacular performance was a reminder of his exceptional talent and potential as a franchise quarterback.
4. The Chiefs are back
If you thought the Chiefs were going to morph into a workmanlike squad fueled primarily by the play of their improved defense, you underestimated Andy Reid’s ability to tinker with his offense until it runs smoothly again.
The offensive wizard has been in the lab experimenting with various approaches to counter the two-deep shell and umbrella coverage that opponents have utilized to slow down the NFL’s most explosive offense. Reid's work is starting to pay dividends, with the Chiefs finding their groove heading into the postseason.
Patrick Mahomes has rediscovered his rhythm as a passer, as evidenced by his 73.2% completion rate, 308.6 pass yards per game average and 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past three games. The sizzling play from the quarterback has sparked an offense that has helped the team average 39.8 points per game during the span.
In a 36-10 rout of the Steelers, the Chiefs lit up the scoreboard without Travis Kelce (COVID-19 protocol) and with Clyde Edwards-Helaire leaving the game with an injury. Byron Pringle (six catches, 75 yards and two scores) and Mecole Hardman (three catches, 31 yards and a score) picked up the slack for No. 87, and Darrel Williams (11 rushes, 55 yards) and Derrick Gore (12 rushes, 43 yards) combined to fill CEH’s role utilizing a back-by-committee approach.
With Mahomes dropping dimes while displaying a patient and disciplined approach from the pocket, the Chiefs’ offense is starting to look like the machine that gives defensive coordinators sleepless nights.
5. Sony Michel is the Rams’ X-factor
Lost in the Star Wars’ movement that resulted in the Rams acquiring Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller was the addition of Sony Michel via a preseason trade. The deal barely registered on the radar, but it could help the Rams make a run at Super Bowl LVI.
Michel plays with a hard-nosed running style that enables him to break tackles in the hole. With his physicality and toughness adding a blue-collar feel to the Rams’ running game, the offense has the capacity to play smash-mouth football when the aerial attack is out of sync and the quarterback is struggling (Matthew Stafford threw three picks).
After stopping the three-game losing streak that prompted questions about the Rams’ ability to win against physical teams, coach Sean McVay has made Michel the primary ball carrier in a revamped game plan that emphasizes the running game. Michel has responded with steady production: 89 carries for 423 rush yards and two scores over the past four games (all wins).
Considering that Michel has a pair of 100-yard games and topped the 20-carry mark three times in the span, the Rams’ revitalized rushing attack could be problematic for opponents in the playoffs.
FIVE THINGS THAT LOOKED BAD
1. Kevin Stefanski needs to figure it out
The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, but every QB is not built to carry an offense on his back. Despite Baker Mayfield’s status as a No. 1 overall pick, he is a game manager better suited to play as a role player in a run-heavy offense spearheaded by Nick Chubb.
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That’s why I do not understand the Browns’ game plan against the Packers. Chubb tallied 184 scrimmage yards on 20 touches (17 rushes, three receptions), looking like an unstoppable force. With the Browns averaging a whopping 8.8 yards per rush attempt, the crunch-time decision to put the game in the hands of a quarterback with three first-half interceptions did not make a lot of sense.
If the Browns’ pass-centric game plan featured more bootlegs and play-action passes, it would be more understandable. But the flurry of drop-back passes from empty formations did not match the strengths of the team’s top playmakers, particularly Chubb.
Perhaps Stefanski was attempting to mix it up to keep the Packers from keying on his best player, but it appears that he might have outsmarted himself with a cute game plan that lacked a clear focus.
2. The Cardinals are slumping again
Kliff Kingsbury needs to figure out why his teams routinely fade at the end of the season. For the second year in a row, the Cardinals have stumbled to the finish line after a strong start.
Following a 22-16 loss to the Colts on Saturday, Arizona has lost three straight games and five of its past eight to fall to 10-5 and out of first place in the NFC West. The slump is reminiscent of 2020, when the Cardinals lost six of their last nine games and missed the playoffs after a 5-2 start had the team in perfect position.
Although the injury bug has bitten the team in recent weeks, the self-inflicted mistakes are a problem that needs to be addressed. Against the Colts, the Cardinals committed 11 penalties for 85 yards, and veteran kicker Matt Prater missed a pair of field goals and a PAT to leave seven points on the field in a close contest. With Kyler Murray also forced to take a safety after a poor snap, Arizona lost the game by committing a series of blunders that routinely lead to losses.
If Kingsbury wants to reverse the Cardinals’ fortunes, he must teach his team how to win by not losing. By eliminating the turnovers, penalties and big plays allowed, the Cardinals can end the slide that has led to questions about their playoff potential.
3. Jimmy G. is a head-scratcher
Just when the 49ers were rounding into form, Jimmy Garoppolo undercut the team’s efforts with a lackluster performance against the Titans that raises questions about his ability to make critical plays during a playoff run. Despite an impressive stat line — 26-of-35 for 322 yards — the veteran threw a couple of costly interceptions that changed the momentum of the game.
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The end-zone interception to Jackrabbit Jenkins kept the 49ers from taking a two-score lead early in the first half, and his second-half interception to Amani Hooker on a floater set the Titans up for a game-tying touchdown. With Jimmy G. also missing a couple passes to receivers running free in the secondary (see: Kyle Juszczyk), the questions persist as to whether he can make the key throws winning quarterbacks execute in playoff games.
This issue was part of the reason the 49ers drafted Trey Lance, and it remains the No. 1 concern for the team heading down the stretch in an ultra-competitive race for an NFC wild-card berth.
4. Are the Chargers contenders or pretenders?
That is the question running rampant in football circles after the Chargers were knocked off by the Texans on the road. Losing to an eliminated squad dealing with myriad COVID absences not only raises concerns about the Chargers' focus but also leads to concerns about the team’s overall inconsistency.
How can a team that hammered a couple of AFC heavyweights (Chiefs and Bengals) drop a game to a lightweight with nothing to prove? Moreover, how can a team with a superstar quarterback and a talented group of playmakers fail to light up a squad that has struggled for most of the season?
Sure, Lovie Smith’s Tampa-2 coverage has befuddled a number of star quarterbacks through the years, but Justin Herbert has faced enough two-deep coverage to know how to attack with check-downs and underneath throws. The lack of patience exhibited by the second-year pro will lead other teams to play more two-high shell coverages against the Chargers going forward.
Defensively, Brandon Staley must find some answers after the Chargers surrendered 189 rushing yards to Rex Burkhead & Co. while allowing Davis Mills to play an efficient game (21-for-27 for 254 yards with two scores) from the pocket without pressure. The lackluster defensive performance enabled the Texans to play a game of keep-away that resulted in a 9:44 time of possession advantage for Houston.
After dropping a game that was expected to be an easy win, the Chargers face more questions about this team’s potential as a title contender.
5. The Giants’ offense needs a makeover
It is difficult to play great football without the QB1 in the lineup, but the Giants’ offensive performance was hard to watch as a football fan. Although no one expected Jake Fromm or Mike Glennon to remind Giants fans of Jeff Hostetler, QB2s should be able to complete routine passes and pick up a few first downs.
Instead, the Giants’ backups combined for just 108 passing yards on 44 attempts (2.7 yards per pass attempt) with a 52.2% completion rate. They also combined for two interceptions and a pair of sacks.
Part of their struggles could be attributed to flawed play designs that did not create easy throws for the quarterback or a ton of space for the receivers. Considering that the pass protection was also leaky at the point of attack, the Giants’ offensive struggles were the result of a disappointing effort from the players and coaches.
MY TOP 10 TEAMS
1. Packers: It is not always pretty, but the Packers find a way to chalk up wins each week as the most complete team in football. With Aaron Rodgers capable of erasing any mistakes with his sensational play, the Packers will be a hard out in the playoffs.
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2. Chiefs: Just when the football world was ready to write off the Chiefs, the back-to-back AFC champions reeled off an eight-game winning streak that showcases their talent, depth and versatility on each side of the ball.
3. Cowboys: It's time to put "America’s Team" in the heavyweight division after the Cowboys knocked out another division foe with a star-studded lineup that features an impressive collection of blue-chip players on each side of the ball.
4. Rams: The emergence of Sony Michel and the running game gives the Rams a chance to make a deep postseason run, regardless of whether Matthew Stafford brings his A-game. Michel adds a ball-control element that could enable the team to play keep-away against some of the high-powered offenses on this list.
5. Buccaneers: Injuries have ravaged the Buccaneers’ starting lineup, but Tom Brady finds a way to get it done with the playmakers on the perimeter. It certainly helps when his super-subs (Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski) have Hall of Fame-worthy résumés.
6. Titans: Give Mike Vrabel credit for getting his crew of junkyard dogs into the winner’s circle each week. Despite fielding a shorthanded lineup, the Titans keep winning behind a rough-and-tumble approach that makes opponents play on Tennessee's terms.
7. Bengals: Joe Burrow & Co. have not only learned how to win. They have also gained a swagger that could make them a dangerous team in the postseason. With a rock-solid defense complementing a high-octane offense that can light up scoreboards, the Bengals are a threat to take down a heavyweight in a win-or-go-home situation.
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8. Colts: Keep an eye on Frank Reich’s squad as a dark-horse contender with the capacity to make a deep playoff run as a lower seed. This team has all the ingredients (A-plus running game and defense, with a playmaker at quarterback) to thrive in the playoffs when the games become more physical.
9. Bills: Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level with his squad making a late-season push for a division title. The ultra-athletic Allen is a spectacular one-man show with the potential to take over the game at any point.
10. Patriots: Perhaps Mac Jones’ Cinderella moment is over after a pair of rough outings against AFC contenders. With the rookie unable to put the team on his back at this stage of his career, the Patriots must play better complementary football to keep Jones in his comfort zone as a game manager.
WEEK 16 GAME BALLS
MVP of the Week: Joe Burrow, Bengals
Burrow grabbed the crown as the QB1 of the AFC North with a spectacular showing against the Ravens. The second-year pro put up 525 passing yards against the bullies of the division, throwing the ball around the yard until the two-minute warning, despite a lopsided lead. Burrow’s swagger might rub some opponents the wrong way, but he has clearly energized a downtrodden franchise with his confidence, poise and playmaking ability.
Offensive Player of the Week: Rex Burkhead, Texans
Burkhead posted the second 100-yard game of his career (22 carries, 149 yards and two scores) in the Texans’ upset of the Chargers. The surprising performance helped the Texans win their second straight game, despite missing a number of starters due to COVID-19 issues. Perhaps David Culley and GM Nick Cesario knew what they were doing when they assembled a mix of veterans and newcomers to kick off the rebuilding efforts in Houston.
Defensive Player of the Week: Trevon Diggs, Cowboys
When a cornerback picks up his 11th interception of the season, he deserves to receive his flowers. Diggs is the best ball-hawk in the game. Sure, the second-year pro gives up a handful of plays each week, but there is not a better defender at creating takeaways than the Pro Bowl corner manning the island in Dallas.
Unsung Hero of the Week: Isaiah McKenzie, Bills
McKenzie stepped in for Cole Beasley at slot receiver, and the Bills’ offense did not skip a beat. McKenzie skipped and skated past New England defenders on his way to an 11-catch, 125-yard day that included a score. While the Bills will hand the job back to Beasley when he returns from the COVID-19 list, McKenzie's impressive performance could earn the veteran a bigger role in the offense heading down the stretch.
Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports and regularly appears on "Speak For Yourself." He also breaks down the game for NFL Network and is a cohost of the "Moving the Sticks" podcast.
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