Dak's Cowboys, Vrabel's Titans primed for NFL playoffs
By Bucky Brooks
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
The NFL season is the best soap opera going these days. The topsy-turvy nature of the league makes it must-see TV each week, and the Week 18 drama confirmed that notion.
From the furious comebacks by playoff contenders to the questionable coaching decisions that sealed some playoff fates to a few unlikely upsets, the final week of the regular season gave football junkies everything their hearts desired.
Given some time to reflect on everything that transpired, here are some thoughts and observations on a great football weekend.
FIVE THINGS THAT LOOKED GOOD
1. Dak finds his groove
The Cowboys’ decision to play Dak Prescott against the Eagles’ JV team might pay off in the playoffs. The veteran QB used the in-game practice to regain his rhythm and chemistry with his playmakers, as evidenced by the eight receivers who got touches in Dallas' 51-26 blowout.
Prescott carved up with Eagles with an assortment of short and intermediate throws delivered in the middle of the strike zone. Prescott picked apart the Eagles’ secondary while building his confidence heading into the playoffs.
Skip Bayless on the Cowboys' wild-card game
With momentum at a premium at the end of the season, the Cowboys’ decision to play Prescott in a meaningless game could make a difference in how he performs in the postseason.
2. T.J. Watt raises the bar
The soon-to-be back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year tied Michael Strahan’s sack record (22.5) with a second-quarter sack of Ravens QB Tyler Huntley. The impressive takedown not only showcased Watt's speed rush and dip-and-rip maneuver off the edge but also capped a sensational season in which he tied the sack record in 15 games.
Think about that. Watt tied one of the NFL’s most distinguished records without taking advantage of the extra game in the regular-season schedule. The veteran could have had sole possession of the record if a first-quarter forced fumble had been ruled a sack instead of a tackle.
Although he has to share the record for now, Watt's consistent pressure the past two seasons should earn him more hardware at NFL Honors.
3. Mike Vrabel is the NFL Coach of the Year
Raise your hand if you expected the Titans to claim the No. 1 seed in the AFC after a rash of injuries torpedoed their lineups on both sides of the ball. The AFC South champs overcame the loss of three Pro Bowl-caliber skill players (Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and Julio Jones) to climb atop a conference loaded with offensive firepower.
In addition, Vrabel fixed a defense that was leaking oil at the beginning of the season and made it the strength of the team heading down the stretch.
With other teams losing focus and dropping pivotal games over the final month, the Titans’ solid execution separated them from the rest of the pack. Throw in the key contributions of their backups and practice-squad players, and it's clear that Vrabel and his staff deserve a ton of credit for their work this season.
4. Rashaad Penny’s emergence
It has taken Penny a little longer than anyone expected to emerge as the dominant feature back to steady the Seahawks’ offense, but the former No. 1 pick has shown promise down the stretch as the team’s RB1.
Penny topped the 100-yard mark in four of the Seahawks’ last five games, including a 23-carry, 190-yard effort Sunday against the Cardinals that included a 62-yard score.
Rashaad Penny's TD seals it for Seattle
While some will dismiss Penny’s impressive run as garbage-time production compiled with the Seahawks out of playoff contention, the consistent play from a back who was a multipurpose weapon at San Diego State should make the team pause before moving on from him in the offseason.
Despite declining Penny's fifth-year option last May, the Seahawks would be wise to bring him back as a free agent to anchor their offense. Although Penny’s injury history and middling production prior to this season’s late-season surge will raise some eyebrows, it is difficult to find 5-foot-11, 220-pound backs with his skills as a playmaker on the open market.
5. Jaguars and Lions show their character with the No. 1 pick on the line
Hats off to Darrell Bevell and Dan Campbell for getting their teams ready to play a "meaningless" game with the No. 1 pick on the line. A loss would have guaranteed the top pick to either team, but the cellar-dwellers played their best games of the season in Week 18. The Jags finished at 3-14 and will pick first followed by the Lions, who finished at 3-13-1.
The grit, determination and enthusiasm displayed by the Jaguars and Lions revealed the individual and collective football character of each member of those teams. From the coaches to the players, the joy of winning a game outweighs draft position or what the No. 1 overall pick could bring in return.
Detroit QB proud of Lions' effort
While front-office executives and fans might prefer the No. 1 pick, for the players, the sweet taste of victory makes all of the hard work that goes into preparing for the game well worth the effort.
At a time when tanking has been popularized in other leagues, it is refreshing to see a bunch of NFL players and coaches put it on the line in games without playoff implications.
FIVE THINGS THAT LOOKED BAD
1. Brandon Staley’s coaching decisions
Perhaps Staley will go down as one of the greatest coaches in NFL history after a long, illustrious career, but he should face plenty of heat for his questionable decisions in an elimination game Sunday night. The Chargers' coach is the "King of the Nerds" in the Twitterverse due to his analytical methods, but questions will persist after he played the Chargers’ season finale like a 13-year-old kid playing "Madden NFL 22" in his basement.
From the surprising fourth-down gamble inside L.A.'s 20-yard line to his decision to opt for a two-point conversion late in the fourth quarter with his team trailing by nine points, Staley played the game as if his team’s playoff life did not hang in the balance. While the Chargers set an NFL record with six successful fourth-down conversions in the game, the ultra-aggressive approach will put Staley under the microscope, particularly when skeptics evaluate his gambles throughout the season (exhibit A: the Chargers’ Week 15 loss to the Chiefs).
Above all else, the rookie head coach will get all the smoke he wants for calling for a timeout with the Raiders seemingly willing to settle for a tie with the clock winding down. Sure, the Chargers need to have the right personnel on the field to stop Josh Jacobs on a run, but the decision to stop the clock appeared to change how Rich Bisaccia & Co. decided to handle the final few plays, as Derek Carr confirmed in a postgame interview. A tie would have put both teams in the playoffs.
Chris Broussard on the Chargers' OT loss
With the ball positioned on the 40-yard line with around 40 seconds left on the clock, the Raiders faced the prospect of kicking a 57-yard field goal to win the game if the third-down play did not gain a yard. To kick a field goal from that range with a playoff berth in the bag is illogical due to the chance of the kick being blocked and returned for a touchdown, which would have knocked the Raiders out. The conservative approach of running the play and punting on fourth down, if the Chargers elected to take their timeout prior to fourth down, would have essentially guaranteed a playoff berth for each team.
It was a win-win scenario that the Raiders were entertaining, especially after watching Justin Herbert make a series of big plays in the fourth quarter to wipe away a 15-point Las Vegas lead. The fear of losing a game that was seemingly in the bag in the fourth quarter certainly impacted the way Bisaccia approached the late-game scenario. If he could avoid putting his defense back on the field with enough time for Herbert to perform another magic trick, he would settle for a tie and a playoff berth that would likely extend his tenure as head coach.
With the Chargers calling the timeout, the Raiders were forced to run the ball to burn up the remaining seconds on the clock or force Staley to use his final timeout prior to an impending punt.
With fewer than 20 seconds on the clock following a punt that would have likely put the Chargers inside their own 20-yard line, the odds of Herbert making enough completions to get into field-goal range were slim to none. And it is another reason the timeout did not make any sense for the Chargers, regardless of their personnel woes.
2. The Rams blow more than a big lead
Sean McVay will need to have a remedy for the hangover that his team could endure after blowing the No. 2 seed in the NFC bracket. The Rams squandered a 17-point lead to the 49ers due to a series of miscues, turnovers and blunders from a star-studded lineup that appeared to have the game under control.
Jimmy Garoppolo on the 49ers' thrilling overtime victory
The stunning loss will force the Rams to reevaluate their tactics while attempting to rebuild the confidence of a squad that let a big win slip through its fingers.
Matthew Stafford, in particular, will need a consultation after the veteran turned the ball over a few more times to add to an up-and-down month that has seen him morph into a turnover machine. The Rams have been able to overcome his TOs in the regular season to chalk up some impressive wins, but a turnover-fest in the playoffs would likely lead to a quick exit.
With the defense blowing assignments in the defensive secondary in key moments, the combination of turnovers and big plays allowed could derail a team with the talent and potential to win it all.
3. The Giants are a lost cause under Joe Judge
I am not one to advocate for a coach to lose his job, but it is difficult to imagine the Giants moving forward with Joe Judge at the helm. Despite receiving a reported vote of confidence a few weeks ago, the Giants were not competitive in the three games since the report hit the airwaves.
Although Judge has attempted to point to progress the team has made behind the scenes, the growth has certainly not shown up on the scoreboard. The poor execution and questionable coaching decisions should concern decision-makers as they contemplate how to make improvements for 2022. Can Judge solve the offensive woes that plagued the team throughout the season?
Giants run QB sneak on third-and-long
Moreover, is he the right coach to eventually make the Giants title contenders in a division that could become increasingly competitive with the Eagles and Cowboys looking like perennial playoff contenders over the next few years? If the Giants’ ownership cannot see the progress that Judge proclaims, it might be time to find a new leader.
4. Carson Wentz cannot get it done
Before the season, the Colts made a major move by trading a conditional first-round pick to the Eagles for Carson Wentz, but Frank Reich & Co. might have a case of buyer’s remorse after watching the veteran melt down in an elimination game on the road.
The Colts’ QB wilted under the pressure from a Jaguars’ pass rush that attacked him from every angle. Wentz took six sacks, and the constant harassment led him to miss the mark on a handful of routine throws. In addition, the veteran made a few boneheaded decisions that continue to raise questions about his ability to thrive as a franchise quarterback for a team with title aspirations.
Although the loss does not fall solely on Wentz’s shoulders, the Colts acquired No. 2 with the expectation that he would come through in big games. His disappointing play with a playoff berth on the line will only ramp up the pressure on this team heading into the 2022 season.
5. Greg Zuerlein’s kicking woes are a problem
It is too late for the Cowboys to replace their kicker, but Mike McCarthy should be concerned about the spate of missed PATs from Greg Zuerlein. The veteran has missed six extra points this season, and his lack of consistency could alter the way the Cowboys approach the game in the playoffs.
With an automatic kicker, the Cowboys are less likely to carry multiple two-point plays on the call sheet. However, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore might have to devote more time to practicing two-pointers in case Zuerlein sprays a few extra points in the postseason tournament.
The Cowboys are legitimate title contenders with a high-octane offense complementing a ball-hawking defense, but the team’s shaky kicking game, particularly on extra points, could be the deciding factor in a one-score game in the playoffs.
MY TOP 10 TEAMS
1. Packers: Aaron Rodgers elevates the Packers from a good team to a great team, as evidenced by the squad's performance against the Lions after his exit. With Green Bay holding the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the road to Super Bowl LVI runs through Lambeau and No. 12.
2. Titans: As the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Titans are in position to make a run with Derrick Henry set to rejoin the squad in the postseason. Mike Vrabel’s scrappy team will be a tough out for opponents who are not prepared to deal with its physicality.
3. Chiefs: It has not been as easy for the Chiefs this season, but the defending AFC champs remain title contenders behind a versatile offense and an opportunistic defense. With Patrick Mahomes capable of getting hot at any moment, the Chiefs are the team to watch in the tournament.
4. Buccaneers: Perhaps the Buccaneers can get it done with Mike Evans shouldering a bigger offensive load. The big-bodied playmaker issued a strong reminder with a dominant performance that should make playoff opponents take notice.
5. Cowboys: Dak Prescott took advantage of the season finale to regain his rhythm and timing as a passer. With the QB streaking into the playoffs, the Cowboys could catch fire in the postseason.
6. Bills: The AFC East champs rely heavily on Josh Allen’s talents, but the fourth-year QB gets it done as a one-man show. If No. 17 is on his game, the Bills can knock off any team in the league, and it does not matter if they are playing at home or on the road.
7. Rams: Matthew Stafford’s turnovers are a real concern for a team with enough star power to win the title. If No. 9 fails to get miscues under control, the Rams could be one-and-done in the tournament.
8. Cardinals: The Cardinals stumbled into the playoffs without a lot of momentum or confidence. The team has lost six of its past 10 games, including four of five — not exactly the way championship teams enter the postseason.
9. Bengals: After taking a week off, Joe Burrow & Co. will need to be at their best to make more than a cameo in the playoffs.
10. Patriots: Mac Jones will need to take his game up a notch to reverse the Patriots’ late-season fortunes. The rookie has not been able to take over games as a playmaker — the team’s three losses in its past four games are the result of opponents putting pressure on Jones to make more plays.
Nick Wright on the Patriots' loss in Miami
WEEK 18 GAME BALLS
MVP of the Week: Tom Brady, Bucs
Brady put up another 300-yard game to top the 5,000-yard mark for just the second time in his career. For the seven-time Super Bowl champ to do it after a chaotic week that included a former receiver taking shots at him and the organization speaks volumes about his poise under pressure. The Bucs' win Sunday secured the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and Brady’s play in the season finale could be a deciding factor in a back-to-back Super Bowl run.
Offensive Player of the Week: Deebo Samuel, 49ers
Samuel is playing like a modern-day Jim Thorpe — a multipurpose weapon capable of scoring as a runner, passer and receiver. Against the Rams, the 49ers’ star amassed 140 scrimmage yards on 12 touches (eight rushes, four catches) and added a 24-yard touchdown pass. The spectacular performance showed off his ability to take over any game with his unique talents.
Defensive Player of the Week: Josh Allen, Jaguars
Allen played a major role in the biggest upset of the season, knocking the Colts out of the playoffs. The Jaguars’ edge rusher came up with a pair of sacks that disrupted the timing and rhythm of Carson Wentz in the pocket. For a defense that could not muster a pass rush for most of the season, Allen's dominant performance was a welcome sight for a team that desperately needed a win.
Unsung Hero of the Week: Daniel Carlson, Raiders
Carlson's ability to put clutch kicks through the uprights has been key to the Raiders’ surprising playoff run. He did it again with a 47-yard game-winner against the Chargers to put the Silver and Black into the tournament. The veteran, who has nailed 40 of 43 field goals this season (93.0%), gives Las Vegas a dangerous weapon heading into the playoffs.
Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports and regularly appears on "Speak For Yourself." He also breaks down the game for NFL Network and is a cohost of the "Moving the Sticks" podcast.
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