National Football League

Bills and Chargers become AFC front-runners, while Browns and Chiefs are left chasing

Updated Oct. 11, 2021 10:07 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

After five weeks of NFL action, the top of the AFC is sorting itself out as expected.

The 3-0 lightweights in Denver and Vegas have lost two straight. The top four teams after Sunday (Ravens play the Colts on Monday Night Football) are the Chiefs, Bills, Chargers and Browns, and they managed to play one another this weekend.

Welp, the Chiefs are broken. After losing twice in a span of 679 days, the two-time defending AFC champions have lost three times in the past 21 days. And the simple breakdown is they are making mistakes at an alarming rate.

We could begin with the defense, but I’m going to start with the offense because I’ve been in their spot. The Chiefs' offense is pressing. It understands that the defense is so bad that if it doesn't make every single play and score a touchdown each drive, the team has no chance to win.

Patrick Mahomes threw some truly odd balls Sunday night. Early in the game, one flew right over Travis Kelce’s head. Mahomes threw some worm finders. He threw ducks.

Mahomes is pressing. He’s trying too hard. There’s no explanation outside of that.

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K.C. receivers also dropped a number of passes. Plus, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, unfortunately, got injured, but he hasn't been what the Chiefs hoped for at running back. He’s just not that good of a runner.

The best part of the Chiefs' offense is the interior offensive line, which might have lost left guard Joe Thuney to injury.

The offense is a mess, but statically, it's still No. 1 in offensive expected points added. Mahomes & Co. can turn things around if they stop making mistakes. I’m not worried about the offense.

What is there to say on defense? How many miscommunications and breakdowns of technique can one defense have in a game? The Bills had open receivers all game. It would be one thing if a pass defense is poor because its players don’t make plays. But the Chiefs don’t even have that issue because their defenders are never close enough to any receiving option to make plays.

Part of the reason receivers got so much separation on the Chiefs' defense is that the K.C. pass rush is nonexistent. And the worst part is there is no easy fix. Playing better would help, and to be fair, the Chiefs' defense allowed only one touchdown in the second half.

Lastly on the Chiefs: The self-inflicted wounds, such as turnovers and penalties, are crushing them. When you’re playing well, those can be masked by Mahomes. When you’re not, they get amplified.

For example, late in the first quarter, the Chiefs forced the Bills to punt. The Chiefs got a long return and a much-needed emotional boost from the potential change in field position. But K.C. had a member of the punt return team line up offsides. The Bills got to punt again and pinned the Chiefs deep.

Little mistakes such as that are crushing Kansas City. One silver lining: The Chiefs have played the toughest schedule in the NFL so far, against four playoff teams in the AFC. Their schedule gets easier. They should win games.

But winning the conference again? That doesn’t seem likely.

The favorite to win the AFC after five weeks has to be the Buffalo Bills, with the league’s best defense and, now, a signature win against the Chiefs. Their defense has taken a huge step forward from last season. They added pass-rushers in the draft who have paid off, and they are generally in better positions to make plays.

The Bills had a wonderful game plan against the Chiefs, sitting in zone coverage and not allowing anyone to get behind the defense. I’m curious to watch the film because as I mentioned above, I think the Chiefs had receivers open, but Mahomes didn’t connect with them.

On offense, the Bills have taken a small step back compared to their huge jump forward last season. But now it’s working because the defense has been one of the NFL's best. If there’s a concern for the team moving forward, it is the offense. However, their formula is difficult to beat at the moment.

The Bills are my clear favorite in the AFC. They have two years of playoff experience now. And if the AFC runs through Ralph Wilson Stadium, good luck to the rest of the conference.

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Meanwhile in Los Angeles, the Chargers overcame a 14-point deficit in the second half to earn a massive 47-42 victory over the visiting Cleveland Browns, pushing their record to 4-1 with wins over two playoff teams in their five games.

The story of the Chargers' success this season begins with new head coach Brandon Staley, who has brought an aggressive analytical approach to roster and game management. Staley hasn’t seen a fourth down he won’t attempt, and his aggressiveness has paid off. The Chargers are 6-for-7 on fourth downs in their current three-game winning streak.

Staley can push the limits of his offense because he has Justin Herbert, the second-year quarterback from Oregon. Herbert has a rocket arm and seems to improve his overall play each weekend. He’s able to make throws that terrorize a defense and make them pay for mistakes.

The Chargers also drafted a future All-Pro at left tackle in Rashawn Slater, who told his running backs he did not need chip help against Myles Garrett. Chip help from running backs can actually make an offensive tackle's job harder because the defender will alter his rush to avoid the running back, thus beating a tackle inside when the tackle did not expect the inside move. It’s even worse when the back isn’t supposed to chip and the offensive tackle gets beaten inside because of it.

(OK, enough offensive line nerding out.)

The Chargers do have issues on the right side of their offensive line, but when it’s just one side, you can scheme for it. On defense, L.A. can rush the passer and play good enough pass defense. Its run defense is alarming, but stopping the run isn’t as important anymore. Stopping explosive plays in the passing game is where it’s at, and Staley understands that.

The Chargers are the clear favorites to win the AFC West, and they deserve the praise they have coming to them.

The Browns are 3-2, with both losses coming after leading by double digits in the second half. Not good. The Browns were up 27-13 against the Chargers, and their offense looked unstoppable. It's the same pattern as in their loss to the Chiefs. The Browns scored three touchdowns to open the game, but in the second half, they went fumble, touchdown, dropped punt snap, punt and interception.

Against the Chargers and Chiefs, the Browns had seven scoring drives in the first half but only three in the second half. The Browns' offense has issues finishing games when the defense isn’t playing well.

That lack of faith in the passing game might have led to a curious decision by coach Kevin Stefanski late in the game. The Browns were up one with just under three minutes left. It was third-and-10. The Browns ran the ball. No surprise, they weren’t close to getting a first down.

I have to wonder if this decision shows a lack of faith in Baker Mayfield. He plays well when the offense is schemed for him. When it’s third-and-10, it’s not schemed, and I do not believe Stefanski trusted him in that moment. Would the three teams above the Browns in this article have run or passed the ball? You know the answer.

This is where I’ve always stood with the Browns: outstanding play in the trenches, offensive weapons, defense can get enough stops. But in these big second-half moments, can the offense do its part? It hasn't lately.

Still, the Browns will win their division and host a playoff game.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.