National Football League

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Giants: Prediction, odds, picks

Published Oct. 12, 2023 6:05 p.m. ET

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Having dropped one in a row, the New York Giants (1-4) will take on the Buffalo Bills (3-2). The Bills are heavy favorites, expected to win by two touchdowns or more (currently -14). 

The Giants were defeated by the Miami Dolphins 31-16 in Week 5, while the Bills were taken down by the Jacksonville Jaguars, 25-20.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Giants and Bills — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Geoff Schwartz. 

Bills vs. Giants Odds & Betting Lines

Bills vs. Giants Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Buffalo (-14) 
• Pick OU: Over (44.5) 
• Prediction: Buffalo 36 - New York 9

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Expert Geoff Schwartz

The Giants have played five football games and have failed to score an offensive touchdown in any of those games. They’ve scored 0, 0, 6, 3 and 3 points on offense in the first half in their five matchups this year. Their offensive line is a dumpster fire, with backups not communicating and not able to pick up any line stunts. It’s possible the Giants get left tackle Andrew Thomas back this weekend and that would surely help, but without Daniel Jones, I don’t have much hope this offense will turn into a juggernaut early in Buffalo.

On the flip side are the Bills, who lost in London on Sunday after a lackluster opening to that game. I don't expect the same to happen on Sunday. They are going to come out roaring after that bad loss, and they will take it out on the Giants defense. What is the Giants defense going to do to stop Buffalo? It doesn't have game-wreckers. The Bills are going to steamroll this Giants team in the first half. 

I like the Bills to score Over 30.5 points because they’ve shown themselves to score a ton of points after a loss. Since the start of the 2021 season, they are averaging 31.7 points per game after their 10 regular-season losses. The lowest output was 23 points against a good Ravens team early last season. This New York team is not that, and we’ve seen the Bills already score 38, 37 and 48 points this season. 

I think they rain down the points this weekend.

PICK: Bills -7.5 first half 
PICK: Bills team total Over 30.5 points scored

How to Watch Buffalo vs. New York

• Game Date: Sunday, October 15, 2023
• Time: 8:20 PM ET
• Venue: Highmark Stadium
• Location: Orchard Park, New York
• TV: Watch on NBC

Bills vs. Giants Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, New York has collected three wins versus Buffalo.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, New York has scored 110 points, while Buffalo has tallied 107.

Buffalo Betting Info

• Against the spread, Buffalo is 3-2-0 this year.
• Buffalo games this year have hit the over on two of five set point totals (40%).
• When playing as moneyline favorites, the Bills are 3-2, earning a victory 60% of the time.
• Buffalo has not yet played as a moneyline favorite of -900 or shorter.
• The implied probability in this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Bills a 90.0% chance to win.

Bills Stats

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen ranks fifth in the NFL with 1,407 passing yards through five games this year, averaging 281.4 per game with a 73.1% completion percentage and 11 touchdowns (second in the NFL) against five interceptions.
• To go along with his passing stats, Allen also has 120 rushing yards (second on the Bills), with three rushing touchdowns.
• Stefon Diggs has caught 39 passes (third in the NFL) on 50 targets for 520 total yards (sixth in the NFL) and five touchdowns. He is averaging 7.8 catches and 104 yards per game through five games.
• In the passing game, Gabriel Davis, has totaled 320 receiving yards and four touchdowns (fourth in the NFL) after pulling down 18 balls on 26 targets. Per game, he's averaging 64 yards and 3.6 receptions in five games.
• James Cook has rushed for 292 yards, averaging 58.4 yards per game and scoring one touchdown.
• Cook's 18 receiving targets have led to 14 receptions (2.8 per game) for 140 yards (28 per game) and zero TDs.

Defense

• On the defensive side for the Bills, Terrel Bernard has racked up 45 tackles, two TFL, two sacks, and two interceptions in 2023.
• Ed Oliver has 24 tackles, nine TFL, and four sacks this season. He's third on the Bills in tackles.
• This season, Leonard Floyd has recorded 5.5 sacks (sixth in the NFL) to go along with his three TFL and 12 tackles.
• This season, A.J. Epenesa has six tackles, three TFL, three sacks, and one interception.

New York Betting Info

• New York has not covered the spread in any game this season (0-5-0).
• Games involving New York has hit the over once this year.
• This season, the Giants have been listed as the underdog in four games and failed to win any of those contests.
• New York has not been a bigger underdog this season than the +600 moneyline set for this game.
• The implied probability of a win by the Giants based on the moneyline is 14.3%.

Giants Stats

New York's Key Players

Offense

• Daniel Jones is averaging 5.9 passing yards per attempt (31st in the NFL) and 176.8 yards per game this year, completing 68.9% of his passes on the way to 884 total yards, two touchdowns and six interceptions through five games.
• Jones has also rushed for one touchdown and 197 yards (first on the Giants).
• Saquon Barkley has 114 rushing yards (second on the Giants) and one rushing touchdown, while averaging 57 yards per game and 3.9 per carry.
• Barkley has also picked up 41 receiving yards (20.5 per game) on nine catches (4.5 per game). He's been targeted 11 times and has caught one touchdown pass.
• Darren Waller has recorded 239 receiving yards on 23 receptions, while being targeted 34 times this season.
• Matt Breida has 82 rushing yards (third on the Giants) and one rushing touchdown, while averaging 16.4 yards per game and 2.7 per attempt.

Defense

• Bobby Okereke has put up three TFL, 42 tackles, and one interception over five games in 2023.
• Jason Pinnock has 30 tackles, three TFL, and one interception. He is second on the Giants in tackles.
• In the 2023 season, Micah McFadden has 29 tackles and five TFL in four games.
• Xavier McKinney's stat sheet includes 29 tackles and four passes defended in five games

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Geoff Schwartz