National Football League

Cardinals, Cowboys, Colts and Bills might make the playoffs — but won't go far

Updated Dec. 20, 2021 3:07 p.m. ET

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By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Fourteen NFL teams will make the playoffs. But there are not 14 teams that I trust or would put money on to win their conferences.

Here are four teams people are excited to see in the postseason that I just can’t buy.

Dallas Cowboys

How they got here: The Cowboys are going to win the NFC East and host a playoff game. They returned Dak Prescott and multiple offensive linemen for the 2021 season, and it has paid off. At times their offense looks unstoppable, with their three-headed receiving crew, running back rotation and mauling offensive line, and their defense has been a pleasant surprise this season. 

They needed only an improvement from bottom-third to average to be successful this season, and they got a top-10 defense with a feisty pass rush and a secondary that forces turnovers at a high rate. Prescott and his team are also the most talented in the NFC East, so it’s no surprise that they’ve won their four division games handily. When things are clicking, the Cowboys look tough to beat.

'The defense is playing ridiculous' — Dak Prescott on Cowboys' win vs. Giants

Shannon Spake chats with Dak Prescott after the Dallas Cowboys' win over the New York Giants on Sunday.

Why they can’t be considered dangerous: There are two areas of concern for me. The first is Prescott. Through six weeks, he was fourth in quarterback efficiency and looking like the player he's paid to be. Then came the calf injury. Since his return in Week 9, Prescott is 29th in those same efficiency numbers among QBs with at least 100 snaps. That is not going to cut it for the playoffs. He looks uncomfortable moving in the pocket, and he hasn’t been able to close games because of some poor turnovers. That said, because of the division’s weakness, it’s possible that Prescott could rest in Week 18, and maybe that would allow his calf to heal enough for him to return to his form for the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys' defense has played well this season, but against whom exactly? Here’s a quick list of the starting quarterbacks Dallas has faced and beaten recently: Mike Glennon, Taylor Heinicke, Taysom Hill and Matt Ryan. The defense’s worst game in the past month was against Derek Carr. I’m concerned that when this defense faces playoff-caliber offenses, it won’t pack the same punch.

Arizona Cardinals

How they got here: The Cardinals started this season with eight straight wins and an offense that looked much improved from the first two seasons with head coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray. Murray was making throws he hadn’t in his first two seasons, and the offense appeared to attack teams more vertically up the field. The offensive line was also much improved, with the addition of Rodney Hudson at center. The Cardinals' offense was able to score points and even won two road divisional games with Colt McCoy at QB! 

Peter Schrager praises Colt McCoy for keeping the Cardinals atop the NFC in Kyler Murray's absence I Cheat Sheet for Week 12

Peter Schrager praises Colt McCoy for keeping the Arizona Cardinals atop the NFC in Kyler Murray's absence.

On defense, the Cardinals started fast and have continued their good ways. They entered this weekend fourth overall in defensive DVOA, with a run defense that has suffered lately without JJ Watt. This team is much improved from last season.

Why they can’t be considered dangerous: Kliff Kingsbury. It’s that simple. This is his ninth season as a head coach, after six at Texas Tech and three at Arizona. In every season, his team played poorly in the second half. In 2013, Texas Tech started 7-0 and finished 8-5. In 2014, the Raiders went 4-8. In 2015, Tech opened 5-2 and finished 7-6. The 2016 season brought more of the same, with a 3-1 start and 5-7 finish. The following season, Kingsbury’s squad started 4-1 but finished 6-7. And his final season in Lubbock went like every other: 5-2 start, 5-7 finish. After all of that, he got an NFL job. It's remarkable.

In Kingsbury's first NFL season, the Cardinals started 3-3-1, only to finish 5-10-1. Last season, they started 6-3 and closed at 8-8. So far in 2021, it’s more of the same. They rolled to an 8-0 start but, after 15 weeks, sit at 10-4 following an embarrassing loss to the Lions. Kingsbury’s teams are unable to adjust, deal with injuries or find new ways to win throughout a season. Why should I believe this season will be the one that changes the trend? They’ve shown nothing to make me believe that.

Buffalo Bills

How they got here: The Bills have played three types of games this season. They’ve won by at least 15 points, lost by seven or fewer, or been blown out, with a single blowout loss to the Colts. The reason for this is their defense, which has been ranked first in DVOA the entire season and, surprisingly, has had to help along the offense, which has looked off at times. However, the Bills still have Josh Allen, and though he hasn't been close to the Allen of last season, he’s a dangerous weapon with his arm and legs. Coming up, the Bills have a huge rematch against the Patriots, a must-win if they want the AFC East title and a potential home playoff game.

'Our defense played fantastic' — Josh Allen speaks with Lindsay Czarniak on the Bills' win vs. Panthers in Week 15

Josh Allen speaks with Lindsay Czarniak after the Buffalo Bills' victory over the Carolina Panthers in Week 15. "Our defense played fantastic," he says. "We took care of the ball for the most part, but there's still some things to clean up."

Why they can’t be considered dangerous: Have you seen their offense? It’s a mess at times. Allen's accuracy, yards per attempt and expected points added are higher than they were in 2019 but lower than they were last season. But the team's issue isn’t just at QB. The offensive line is not good. The Bills allow the second-most pressures in the NFL, and if you watched Sunday, the Panthers' defensive line was all over Allen. The Bills aren’t much better at run-blocking, and in fact, it appears that they don’t even bother to run it sometimes. Simply put, this offense is not good enough to win the AFC.

Three ways to fix the Buffalo Bills — Bucky Brooks I NFL on FOX

Bucky Brooks shares three ways to fix the Buffalo Bills this season. Hear why Bucky believes the keys are to unleash Josh Allen, target Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley and play "team" defense.

Indianapolis Colts

How they got here: The 2021 "team no one in the AFC wants to play" is the Colts. They are winners because they are well coached and have a balanced roster. On offense, they beat up defenders at the line of scrimmage with their run game and keep their quarterback out of danger. On defense, they have playmakers at every position, though their secondary could use some improvement heading into next season. But it’s the present now, and this team is winning games after starting 2-4. 

'They get it done in all aspects' — Bucky Brooks credits the Colts' all-around game with making them a top rising team in the NFL

Bucky Brooks names the Indianapolis Colts one of his top rising teams in the NFL. He credits Jonathan Taylor being the leading scorer among running backs, Carson Wentz doing just enough to compliment Taylor and the Colts' defense.

Why they can’t be considered dangerous: Carson Wentz is not good. Sorry. As much as people want him to be, he’s not. He has improved this season to barely average, and that’s not good enough. In fact, the Colts just beat the Patriots with Wentz completing five total passes, and about half of his seven other attempts hit defenders in their hands. Wentz is not to be trusted. And if the Colts are a wild-card team … you’re telling me this QB is leading his team to three straight road playoff wins to make a Super Bowl appearance? That’s a no from me.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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Geoff Schwartz