National Football League

Is Chargers QB Justin Herbert taking enough risks to create explosive plays?

Published Dec. 19, 2024 3:24 p.m. ET

Los Angeles Chargers defensive lineman Morgan Fox understands how much quarterback Justin Herbert means to his team's success. The Bolts currently sit at 8-6 on the season and are in the middle of the AFC playoff conversation.

"He's incredible," Fox told FOX Sports. "He puts the weight of the world on his shoulders, and he plays lights out every time. At the end of the day, we've got to get him the ball more."

Head coach Jim Harbaugh has built one of the best defenses in the league in his first season in Los Angeles, led by defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. But the Chargers still go as Herbert goes.

The 26-year-old signal-caller has dealt with a series of nagging injuries this year, including a plantar fascia foot issue that sidelined him during training camp, along with playing through ankle sprains and a thigh bruise during the regular season. Still, the Oregon product hasn't missed a game, throwing for 2,959 yards, with 16 touchdowns and just two interceptions for a 97.9 passer rating.

Herbert and the Chargers face one of the best defenses in the league when they host the Broncos on Thursday night. The Bolts could earn a season sweep of Denver for the first time since 2010, which would push L.A.'s playoff chances over 95%. If the Broncos win, they would clinch a playoff berth for the first time since 2015.

Denver and the Chargers are tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for the best scoring defense in the NFL this season, each team allowing 17.6 points per game. The Broncos lead the NFL with 49 sacks.

Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have built an offense that takes a conservative approach, leaning on a top-notch defense and a running game to take pressure off Herbert to carry the offense. Throughout the first half of the season, when J.K. Dobbins was healthy, the running game was effective. Dobbins totaled 766 yards and eight touchdowns through 11 games, averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

But since Dobbins went on injured reserve with a knee injury in Week 12, Los Angeles has struggled to run the football. The Chargers had just 32 rush yards on 11 rush attempts in last week's 40-17 humbling loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — the fewest carries and rush yards by any Harbaugh-led team in his professional coaching career.

The Chargers have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in each of their past four games, and they are averaging just 18.0 carries a game since Week 12, the fewest in the NFL.

From Weeks 2-14, Herbert recorded 357 consecutive pass attempts without an interception, the fifth-longest such streak in NFL history. He's doing a great job of taking care of the football, but with Dobbins out, the Bolts have struggled to create balance on offense.

Losers of three of their past four games, the Chargers have averaged 18.5 points per game during that stretch. Herbert has thrown just 16 touchdowns this season, compared to 20 in 2023 and 25 in 2022. His interception rate is No. 3 all time, behind Jacoby Brissett and Aaron Rodgers. But with L.A. struggling to score points, is Herbert taking enough risks to create explosive plays?

Joe Burrow, Herbert's draft classmate, leads the league with 36 touchdown passes. Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is second with 34. MVP front-runner Josh Allen has 25 touchdown passes and is responsible for 36 total touchdowns. These are the quarterbacks that Herbert is being compared to because of his immense talent.

Herbert (20,182) and Hall of Famer Peyton Manning (20,618) are the only players in NFL history with at least 20,000 passing yards in their first five NFL seasons. Herbert needs 437 passing yards in his final three games to pass Manning for most all time.

"You play quarterback without fear," Herbert said, when asked about finding balance in the offense. "I'm going to take my shots; I'm going to throw the ball downfield. I've got to be smart about it and understand that maybe a throwaway is better in that situation. You can't take the aggression out and the aggressive mentality of throwing the ball downfield, especially to one of your playmakers. But I've got to do a better job there."

It's not just Herbert. The entire offense must figure out ways to consistently move the football and find the end zone. That starts up front with better protection. Harbaugh considers offensive linemen a weapon, one of the reasons the Bolts selected right tackle Joe Alt in the first round. However, Herbert has been sacked 38 times this year. Only Sam Darnold (42) and Will Levis (40) have been sacked more. Herbert's 8.7 sack rate this season is a career high.

"We've got to do a better job of protecting our guy," Roman said. "And there's some other things. It's not just the blockers, it's running the routes, getting the ball out on time. It all factors in. And coaching. We're all part of it. It all factors in, and we all take ownership of it."

Another factor is with talented pass-catchers Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler gone, that has affected L.A.'s continuity in the passing game. The Chargers have created 44 passing plays of 20-plus yards, which is tied for No. 10 in the NFL. However, according to Next Gen Stats, the Chargers also have 22 drops, fourth-most in the NFL.

"We always talk about playing that complementary football," Herbert said. "There have been plenty of times this year where we haven't put up the points and our defense has come out and they've caused the turnovers, they've come up with big stops.

"They've played almost perfectly all year. It's tough, but we've got to do a better job of going out there as an offense and limiting the time that we put our defense out there and let those guys rest and relax on the sideline."

Herbert knows that he carries the burden for the offense. Maybe it's time for him to take some more chances.

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.

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