National Football League

Chiefs lead Super Bowl-or-bust teams in Nick Wright's unique NFL tiers

Published May. 30, 2024 3:21 p.m. ET

The bulk of the NFL offseason is behind us, and teams are reconvening for organized team activities (OTAs) as they prepare for the 2024 season.

In fact, the first game of the 2024 season is less than 100 days away. The countdown officially began on Tuesday, with minicamps being held in the next couple of weeks and training camps starting in two months.

As the vast majority of the major moves have already been solidified, "First Things First" host Nick Wright took it upon himself to rank all 32 teams. It's not a conventional tier ranking though, with Wright giving certain descriptions of the status of teams ahead of the 2024 season.

Let's take a look at Wright's tiers, along with the latest Super Bowl LIX odds.

"On the clock and on Zillow"

Carolina Panthers (2023 record: 2-15; Super Bowl odds: +30000), Las Vegas Raiders (7-10; +8000) and New York Giants (6-11; +10000)

Wright's thoughts: "We know that they're already scouting next year's draft. For a lot of people in those organizations, they're scouting real estate agents."

"Year 5 of the rebuild"

Washington Commanders (4-13; +15000), New England Patriots (4-13; +18000) and Denver Broncos (7-10; +15000)

Wright's thoughts: "All three of these teams are like, ‘Rebuild starts now. We drafted our quarterback. Judge us from right now.' But you've been rebuilding for the last half-decade for all three of these teams. Maybe you should be further along. … In the Broncos' case, they're three rebuilds in. The Patriots are in their second rebuild."

"Combine the rosters"

Cleveland Browns (11-6; +4000), New Orleans Saints (9-8; +8000) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8; +5500)

Wright's thoughts: "The AFC [has] got too many good teams and the NFC [has] not got enough good ones. So, let's remove the Browns entirely and put them all together in one. [Baker Mayfield] can be the quarterback along with Tristan Wirfs and Mike Evans. Chris Olave, Marshon Lattimore and Alvin Kamara can come together. The Browns send over Myles Garrett and the whole offensive line. … If you combined those three teams … they would be a good team."

Cardinals sleepers on Nick’s Post-OTAs Tiers

"Sleeper potential"

Arizona Cardinals (4-13; +8000), Seattle Seahawks (9-8; +7500), Indianapolis Colts (9-8; +5500) and Tennessee Titans (6-11; +13000)

Wright's thoughts: "Last year, everyone was cowardly [by] saying their sleeper was the Lions. They won eight in a row — that's not a sleeper. A sleeper is a team that has no expectations that no one believes [in]. All four of these teams have no expectations, very little belief, but just enough. … One of those teams is likely a sleeper team."

"Offseason too weird"

New York Jets (7-10; +2400), Minnesota Vikings (7-10; +8000), Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7; +5000) and Atlanta Falcons (7-10; +2400)

Wright's thoughts: "The Steelers' Russell Wilson was announced as the starting quarterback, and then Justin Fields was like, ‘Guys, it's me, actually. I'm going to fight for it.' Falcons, we know how weird it is. Meanwhile, in New York you have an offensive coordinator who's just a darts player and a defensive-minded head coach who's now coaching the offense. You also have a quarterback who wants to hold the next State of the Union Address."

"QB leap year"

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8; +4500) and Los Angeles Chargers (5-12; +5000)

Wright's thoughts: "A lot of pressure on these two guys. It might be a little unfair for at least one of them. But this year, if these quarterbacks don't take a leap — either statistically or from a winning perspective — there's going to be real criticism surrounding either or both of them."

"Pretend Super Bowl-or-bust"

Detroit Lions (12-5;+1300), Philadelphia Eagles (11-6; +1400), Dallas Cowboys (12-5;+1500), Miami Dolphins (11-6; +2400) and Buffalo Bills (11-6;+1300)

Wright's thoughts: "All of these teams would have fans meeting them at the airport celebrating if they got to a Super Bowl and lost. All of those teams — Buffalo is a maybe — would give extensions to the coach if they made the conference championship game. Yet, they all pretend they're Super Bowl or bust. Good season or bust is what you actually are."

"There can only be one"

Chicago Bears (7-10; +4000), Green Bay Packers (9-8; +1900) and Houston Texans (10-7; +1600)

Wright's thoughts: "We're not going to have three great young quarterbacks at once. We can have three good ones. We can only have one that can establish himself as the great one in the post-Patrick Mahomes/Josh Allen era of quarterbacks. Caleb Williams is going to fight for it. Jordan Love, who's a little bit older, is not, and C.J. Stroud is going to fight for it."

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"Actual Super Bowl-or-bust"

San Francisco 49ers (12-5; +550), Cincinnati Bengals (9-8; +1300), Baltimore Ravens (13-4; +950) and Los Angeles Rams (10-7; +3200)

Wright's thoughts: "All four of these teams are truly Super Bowl or bust. The Rams for the simple reason [that] you don't know how much longer Matthew Stafford is going to play. As long as McVay's there and Stafford's there, any year that doesn't end in a Super Bowl — because you won one recently — is a disappointment. The Ravens ... [and] the 49ers have been knocking on the door. … We know what the deal is with the Bengals."

"Above reproach"

Kansas City Chiefs (11-6; +600)

Wright's thoughts: "There's nothing even to say anymore. It's honestly hurt some of sports commentary that every NFL conversation has this on the frontend or the backend of it."