Nate Orchard is unlikely to make the final roster for the Cleveland Browns in 2017 and little of it is his fault, but rather a case of bad luck and how the NFL works.
Nate Orchard enters his third season with the Cleveland Browns after being selected 51st overall in the 2015 NFL Draft. The reality is that he's likely to finish this season in a different uniform. Orchard was selected in an attempt to bolster the team's pass rush and after having a reasonably productive year, he missed virtually the entire 2016 season with an ankle injury.
This could not have been worse luck for Orchard, who was trying to audition for a new coaching staff and front office that did not choose him. The switch to yet another defensive coordinator, the third in Orchard's short NFL career, doesn't do much to improve the situation.
The other issue that really hurt Orchard's fortunes with the Browns is the fact they finished dead last in the NFL, putting them on a collision course with Myles Garrett. Along with Garrett, the team's top overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, the team drafted Emmanuel Ogbah and Carl Nassib in the second and third round respectively in 2016.
Given that this regime did not pick Orchard, that already puts him at a disadvantage; three players taken with pretty high picks by a different front office than the one that picked him. That would already put Orchard in a situation where he's potentially fighting for the fourth spot in a four-man defensive end rotation.
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Enter Tyrone Holmes. Holmes was a sixth-round pick by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2016 NFL Draft but the team opted to release him on the final cut down day before the season and the Browns claimed him on waivers. Along with Holmes, the Browns also grabbed cornerback Briaen Boddy-Calhoun, who also released by the Jaguars.
Holmes appeared in 11 games in 2016 and recorded one sack. So what does Orchard have to fear from a sixth-round pick turned waiver claim? The short answer is analytics.
Orchard is a poor fit for the way the Browns are operating now with a heavy focus on analytics, focusing on both athletic and production traits. Garrett, Ogbah and Nassib are far more in line with this front office's way of thinking, as is Holmes.
In terms of his production, Orchard did more than enough in college.
Nate Orchard
Career Games: 50 games
Solo Tackles: 111 (5.5 percent)
Sacks: 24 (14.8 percent)
Tackles for Loss: 39 (11.9 percent)
Orchard's production is solid. It's aided significantly by the outstanding senior year he had where he recorded 54 solo tackles, 21 tackles for loss and nation-leading 18.5 sacks, which is eerily similar to Holmes' career at Montana.
Tyrone Holmes
Career Games: 51 games
Solo Tackles: 72 (3 percent)
Sacks: 34.5 (21.8 percent)
Tackles for Loss: 49.5 (14.01 percent)
Holmes was a situational pass rusher his first two seasons at Montana, recording just 14 solo tackles but 9.5 sacks. Like Orchard, in his final year, Holmes turned in a monster season amassing 32 solo tackles, 24 tackles for loss and 18 sacks.
Orchard has the advantage on solo tackles but the high level of production against higher level of competition in the Pac-12 as opposed to the FCS gives Orchard gets the slight nod. It's not great for Orchard that, even if he was slightly more productive, Holmes was also extremely productive on the college level, especially since he has higher upside.
The reason for that becomes pretty clear when it comes to athletic traits.
Nate Orchard
Height: 6-3.25
Weight: 250 pounds
Age: 24 (Born Jan. 5, 1993)
40-Yard Dash: 4.8s
Vertical Jump: 31.5″
Broad Jump: 9'7″
3-Cone: 7.28s
Shuttle: 4.43s
Bench: 23 reps (Pro Day)
Orchard did everything at the combine, except the bench press, citing a shoulder issue. He did not attempt to improve on any of those numbers at Pro Day. And those numbers… aren't good. Orchard tested extremely poorly on speed and the only place he did particularly well is in the broad jump. His shuttle time was solid as well.
Tyrone Holmes
Height: 6-2.25
Weight: 253 pounds
Age: 23 (Born Sept. 10, 1993)
40-Yard Dash: 4.59s
Vertical Jump: 37.5″
Broad Jump: 9'5″
3-Cone: 7s
Shuttle: 4.3s
Bench: 28 reps (Pro Day)
Orchard's numbers look all the more pedestrian when compared to those of Holmes. Orchard bested him on the broad jump, but Holmes is faster, quicker and more explosive. He's also a year younger.
Oct 30, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns outside linebacker Emmanuel Ogbah (90) during the second quarter against the New York Jets at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Jets won 31-28. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
Emmanuel Ogbah
Height: 6-4.25
Weight: 273 pounds
Age: 23 (Born Nov. 6, 1993)
40-Yard Dash: 4.63s
Vertical Jump: 35.5″
Broad Jump: 10'1″
3-Cone: 7.26s
Shuttle: 4.5s
Bench: 20 reps
Ogbah, with with two additional inches of height and 23 extra pounds of weight, was faster and more explosive than Orchard. Orchard is basically no quicker than Ogbah, but did beat him on the bench. It's not difficult to see how average an athlete Orchard is in comparison to the others.
The Browns certainly aren't going to hand the job to Holmes. He's going to have to beat Orchard out for it, but the fact that Holmes does have the physical and productive indicators that project to success in the NFL may have the front office pulling for him. That analytical difference would likely give Holmes the advantage in the event of a tie. It just means that Orchard will probably have to clearly beat Holmes to secure the fourth defensive end spot.
Both players were acquired to do the same thing — get to the quarterback. That's likely going to be the determining factor between the two. Which guy can come in off the bench and provide pressure off the edge?
In situations where Gregg Williams finds a good pass rushing matchup, he will likely move Myles Garrett to the inside and try to exploit the weakness. In that scenario, likely an obvious passing situation, Orchard or Holmes can come in and fill play on the edge, giving the Browns more speed on the field. Some might refer to it as a NASCAR package, but because of the presence of guys like Garrett and Nassib, they could put four defensive ends on the field at once.
It's not ideal that Orchard at least projects to be the slowest pass rusher off the line. Hopefully in the past two seasons, Orchard has worked to get much faster, but Holmes had the same opportunity this past year.
In the event Holmes beats out Orchard for that final spot and the Browns can avoid injuries up front that would necessitate keeping a fifth defensive end, the Browns will likely try to trade Orchard sometime in the preseason.
Ideally, the Browns swap Orchard for a draft pick, be it 2018 or 2019. The Browns still have top waiver priority, so anyone that gets cut, the Browns already have first right of refusal. With that in mind, trading for another player is hardly ideal. Basically, they would need to get a player they otherwise wouldn't get a shot to take and that might require giving up additional assets.
The nature of the NFL and the revolving door with the Browns in terms of coaches and the front office works against previous regime draft choices and free agent signings. While this allows them to get away from mistakes quickly, that lack of continuity is also part of the reason the Browns have been as bad as they have been for the past two decades.
Orchard has the opportunity to make the case that he's too valuable to get rid of, but the deck is stacked against him. The fact he was a second round pick is no longer important, since this regime didn't choose him and it's pretty clear that he did not warrant being selected that high. This regime traded Justin Gilbert away in the same timeline and under similar circumstances, getting a sixth round pick in 2018 for him from the Pittsburgh Steelers. With Holmes being the far superior athlete, it at least appears as though Orchard's days as a member of the Cleveland Brown are numbered.
