Colin Kaepernick and other NFL QBs with 'cuttable' mega-contracts
This week, the San Francisco 49ers are mired in what has to be a historically unique predicament. Less than three years after the team played in the Super Bowl, the Niners are about to host the Atlanta Falcons, and will voluntarily sit the healthy quarterback who got them one victory short of the Lombardi Trophy -- Colin Kaepernick -- in favor of Blaine Gabbert.
Turning to Gabbert in a time of crisis is certainly an unprecedented move. After being selected 10th overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2011 NFL Draft, one pick before a certain defensive end named J.J. Watt, Gabbert only made it three games into his third season (2013) before he was benched. The bench is where Gabbert has resided -- until now. And for good reason.
Among all quarterbacks (since 1970) who have started at least 27 games -- Gabbert’s start against the Falcons will be the 28th of his career -- nobody has fewer wins than Gabbert, who is 5-22. Actually, nobody from the modern, pass-first game is really close. While there are quarterbacks who have won fewer games in fewer career starts, nobody in NFL history has been given so much playing time while returning so little.
I mention Gabbert’s underwhelming history to point out that the Niners must be really dissatisfied and discouraged with Kaepernick’s play if they feel that Gabbert is the best option available. For a Niners fan, this can very well feel like a sentence to a generation of football doom: Kaepernick was just signed to a six-year, $114 million contract just under a year-and-a-half ago (June 2014).
But, thanks to a weak collective bargaining agreement that gives NFL players an extremely small percentage of guaranteed money -- especially compared to their peers in the NBA and MLB -- the true impact of football contracts comes in the (admittedly complicated) minutiae of the deal. As Michael Ginnitti of the incredible salary database Spotrac wrote about Kaepernick recently, the Niners can actually cut Kaepernick after this season with minimal long-term consequences. If Kaepernick is released between the end of this NFL season and April 1, the date when his 2016 contract becomes fully guaranteed, Kaepernick’s contract delivers a dead cap (or sunk cost) hit of $7.3 million on the Niners’ 2016 cap table.
The NFL is flush with money, but $7.3 million is still a huge sum. NaVorro Bowman, the Niners’ highest-earning player behind Kaepernick, is earning a comparable $7.6 million this season. However, considering that annual team caps are up around $150 million, the Niners wouldn’t be debilitated if they decide to build anew.
In retrospect, general manager Trent Baalke proposed a brilliant contract here. It seems Kaepernick was eager to bet on his own talents, and now the Niners are heavily insured since those once-bright talents have dimmed.
Kaepernick is one of plenty of lavishly compensated quarterbacks under center this season, but he is the quarterback on the most team-friendly contract. For instance, if Joe Flacco had been cut before this season, he would have cost the Ravens a dead cap hit of $36.4 million. If Eli Manning is cut before next season, that would take up $42.3 million of the New York Giants’ cap. These gigantic hits are effectively ultra-guarantees that protect the player: The steep prices are more damaging to the team as a whole than some subpar quarterback play.
Not every quarterback is as vulnerable as Kaepernick, just like not every quarterback is as well-protected as the aforementioned Flacco and Manning. There are three quarterbacks in particular who have underwhelmed in 2015, and who could be cut following the 2016 season at manageable cost, even though their full salaries stretch far beyond next year:
1. Alex Smith / Kansas City Chiefs
While the Chiefs have played much better than their 3-5 record would indicate, Smith remains much closer to a backup than a star when it comes to Air Yards (or, the average distance amount a quarterback throws a ball in the air, as opposed to Yards After the Catch gained by the pass catcher). Now, he usually has invaluable backfield weapon Jamaal Charles to check it down to in Kansas City, but Smith ranked as below average in this category when he was in San Francisco, too.
That the Chiefs agreed to such a long extension with Smith, who is now in his 30s, on the eve of the 2014 season -- well, it’s not encouraging in terms of any sort of innovation that might be happening in Kansas City. Smith remains a perfect example of one of the NFL’s most unsolvable riddles: Is it a blessing or a curse to simply maintain the status quo at quarterback?
2. Jay Cutler / Chicago Bears
It’s hard to remember times when Cutler was a young quarterback who excelled despite his inexperience: In his 20s (2006-12), Cutler put together a respectable career record of 51-42, including his transition from the Denver Broncos to the Bears. Since, Cutler has gone 12-20 while the Bears have gone 15-24, a record that is perilously close to the bottom five teams in the league over that span.
In 2015, the Bears have provided uninterrupted dysfunction even though they changed both their head coach and general manager during the offseason. With Cutler’s minimal trade value, the more pressing question seems to be not if the Bears will cut him after 2016, but if the Bears will cut him after 2015. If the team attempts to wipe the slate clean this offseason -- could you blame them? -- Cutler’s contract will deliver a dead cap hit of $13 million for the 2016 season.
3. Ryan Tannehill / Miami Dolphins
This spring, Zack Moore of the encyclopedic site Over the Cap weighed in on the extension that the Dolphins agreed to with Tannehill. Moore came away with a prediction that is guaranteed to make Miami fans sad now: With Tannehill and free agent Ndamukong Suh’s contracts both due to hike up considerably in 2016, Moore saw 2015 as the Dolphins’ prime window for title contention. Oops.
Even more depressing for Dolphins faithful: Miami has not been able to assemble a plus-.500 team around Tannehill even though he has been, up to this point, the very rare above-average quarterback on a rookie scale deal. It seems that there will be a lot more transition in Miami over the next few seasons -- Suh’s contract inflating to astronomical sums does not help -- and it seems a valid question whether Tannehill and his incredibly team-friendly contract will survive the inevitable shuffle.
More from The Sports Post:
