By Justin Kelly
Without receiving the hype of the league's more popular quarterbacks, Andy Dalton has quietly put up his best start to a season ever. His Cincinnati Bengals have won four of four and sit atop the AFC North by two games. Dalton's individual performance has been as strong as his team's record, and (Bengals fans, rejoice) it looks like his excellence will continue.
Here's what we've seen from Dalton so far:
In Week 1, Dalton faced an admittedly weak Oakland defense. He picked them apart as any potentially elite quarterback should. He completed more than 70 percent of his passes for 269 yards and two TDs. The Raiders couldn't pressure him effectively (zero sacks), so Dalton had an easy day of work. This performance alone was nothing to celebrate, strong as it was.
In Week 2, San Diego came to town with their slightly more formidable defense. Dalton had to deal with pressure throughout the game, as the Chargers totaled four sacks and a forced fumble (returned for a TD). Despite taking hits, Dalton remained composed and completed 16 of 26 for 214 yards, three TDs, and no picks.
In Week 3, the Bengals played the Ravens in Baltimore. Luckily for Dalton, the once-terrifying Ravens defense is a thing of the past. According to Football Outsiders, the Chargers and Ravens have defenses of similarly poor quality, in the bottom 10 of the league. Unsurprisingly, Dalton had another big day: 20 of 32 for 383 yards, three TDs, and one INT. These numbers fail to explain how well Dalton played in the final stretch of the game, however. After taking two sacks and losing another ball on a forced fumble (also returned for a TD), Dalton remained confident enough in the pocket to lead the Bengals on the game-winning drive with less than five minutes left.
In Week 4, the Chiefs came to Cincinnati with a defense that barely sneaked into the league's top half (it's now ranked 16th, per Football Outsiders). This time, the Bengals' backs overpowered Kansas City for the get-go. Under reduced pressure, Dalton had his best day of the season: 17 of 24, 321 yards, and one TD. His 127.1 quarterback rating was his highest yet as well.
All told, Dalton is playing like one of the best five quarterbacks in the league. Through three weeks, Dalton's DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) falls below only Rodgers', Brady's, Palmer's, and Roethlisberger's. Given that Week 4 was his best yet, his DVOA should only go up from there. His QBR tells the same story: only Rodgers, Palmer, and Roethlisberger have higher.
Can Dalton continue to enjoy his unprecedented level of success? Two important points about him and the Bengals as an offense suggest "Yes."
1) Play under pressure
Sports Illustrated noted over the offseason that Dalton collapses under pressure. SI was absolutely right at the time, but 2015 has been a different story. In Weeks 2 and 3, Dalton took hard hits, two of which resulted in defensive touchdowns. His pocket presence remained strong throughout those games, as he led his team to wins. In Week 4, Dalton made one play (1:32 in the video in the link) that captures this sudden change in his performance.
In 2014, this type of roll-out would probably have led to a duck (best case) or an interception (worse case). So far, Dalton has made passes outside of the pocket without sacrificing distance or accuracy. Though Dalton's quick release makes it easier for him to operate in the pocket, pressure was his Achilles' heel, and it seems he's made improvements.
2) Better weapons
In 2014, AJ Green received 30 percent of all passing yards. Mohamed Sanu finished behind him at 23 percent, while TE Jermaine Gresham received about 13 percent. These three weapons were all Dalton could use. In 2015, Dalton can look to five targets in Green, Sanu, Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert, and Giovanni Bernard. He's spread the ball around to these targets more evenly as well. Each has received close to 10 percent or more of all passing yards. Dalton has more weapons and apparently feels comfortable using all of them. Insofar as this diversity makes defending the Bengals harder, Dalton's play will benefit.
Cincinnati's backs also deserve credit for their contributions to the offense and Dalton's success. Giovanni Bernard ranks fourth in RB DVOA (Football Outsiders), while Jeremy Hill has punched in two TDs.
The foundation of the Cincinnati offense--and its most important weapon--is the offensive line. Dalton's numbers, the receivers' success, and the power of the running game all depend on the O-line. As expected, this weapon has actually been the Bengals' best: fourth in adjusted sack rate and seventh in overall run blocking (Football Outsiders).
With such improvements in himself as a quarterback and in the offense as a unit, 2015 could very well be Andy Dalton's best season.
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