National Football League

Could Titans’ recent struggles actually cost them the AFC South?

Updated Dec. 14, 2022 7:45 p.m. ET

End-of-season NFL playoff odds indicate that the Titans should feel pretty comfortable. With four weeks left in the regular season, they have an 85% chance of winning the AFC South, according to FiveThirtyEight. They control their fate.

But Tennessee (7-6) fell Sunday to division rival Jacksonville (5-8), keeping the latter's hopes in the AFC South race alive. It extended the Titans' losing streak to three games for the first time in four years.

After the Week 13 blowout loss to the Eagles, coach Mike Vrabel said the Titans were at a "crossroads." The Jaguars game showed that they're now just headed in the wrong direction.

The question becomes this: could Tennessee's unraveling actually cost it the division?

After dominating the AFC South over the last couple of years and the early part of this season, it's a reality at least worthy of consideration.

"The challenge is eliminating bad football," coach Mike Vrabel said Monday.

We've known the Titans offense to be flawed since the start of the season — with poor offensive line play and underwhelming talent at receiver — but their recent defensive struggles make this team all the more difficult to buy into down the stretch.

With a sidelined Denico Autry (knee) and Jeffery Simmons (ankle) hobbled for the last several weeks, the Titans don't have the pass rush to stop the exploitation of their shaky secondary, which is short-handed and inexperienced at cornerback. The Titans were tied with a league-high 34.3% pressure rate on dropbacks in Weeks 1-10, according to Next Gen Stats. Over the last four weeks, they're registering just a 20.2% pressure rate on dropbacks, third-worst in the NFL. Their four sacks in that span are tied for the league's fifth-fewest, per NGS.

Each of the Titans' last two opponents, the Jaguars and Eagles, were able to score at least 35 points in blowout victories without an effective run game. Jacksonville had 368 passing yards to just 60 rushing yards in a 14-point win over the Titans, while Philadelphia had 386 passing yards to 67 rushing yards in a 25-point drubbing of Tennessee.

The Titans are 1-5 against teams that currently have winning records, reinforcing their place a rung below the NFL's best teams. And two of their last four games come against teams currently above .500: this week at the Chargers (7-6) and Week 17 at home against the Cowboys (10-3). Both teams have the franchise quarterback and pass-catchers to do to the Titans what the Jaguars and Eagles did before them.

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE — DECEMBER 11: Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Tennessee Titans and Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars hug after playing each other. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

For the Titans to fumble the division, the Jaguars would have to also go on a run (the Colts are further on the outskirts with just a 2% chance of winning the AFC South, per FiveThirtyEight). And Jacksonville has ascended over the last month.

Their blowout loss on the road to the Lions in Week 13 was bad, sure. But consider this: they've won three of their last five games, after posting just two wins in their first eight games. And Trevor Lawrence has become a true franchise quarterback. Since Week 9, he's completed a league-high 71.8% of his passes for 1,362 yards and 10 touchdowns with no interceptions. In that span, he's second among all quarterbacks in passer rating and EPA per dropback, according to TruMedia.

He carried the Jaguars against the Titans with their run game nonexistent, just like he did two weeks prior against the Ravens, when he pulled off a signature game-winning drive. He could continue to carry Jacksonville late in the season.

"The games we've been able to win down the stretch, to be able to put ourselves in a position to play meaningful games in December and January, that's where you want to be," Lawrence said Sunday. "Just proud of this group, in how we've been able to bounce back week-to-week no matter what happens."

The Titans, however, still control their destiny. They can avoid a season finale at the Jaguars that would be for the division crown.

An improbable Colts run or tie complications aside, Tennessee could clinch the AFC South before its Week 18 matchup with Jacksonville with one of the following, per FiveThirtyEight:

1. Winning out through Week 17 (3-0)

2. Going 2-1 over the next three games with Jacksonville failing to win out in that span (3-0)

3. Going 1-2 over the next three games with Jacksonville failing to register at least two wins

Star running back Derrick Henry said the way the Titans respond to their three-game losing streak will be a testament to their leadership.

"Coach always says, ‘culture is not built when everything is good. It's built on when you're at your worst,'" Henry said Sunday. "I think the leaders need to step up. I need to step up. And rally together. Stay together. We've been through adversity before."

They'll need to do so again to stave off a shocking giveaway of the AFC South title, which could mean the difference between a ‘retool' and a rebuild in the upcoming offseason for a Titans franchise in search of a new general manager.

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Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.