National Football League

Cowboys Corner: Who is No. 1 trade target? Is 49ers showdown a must win?

Published Oct. 25, 2024 9:05 a.m. ET

Jerry Jones is angry and clearly tired of all the criticism. But since the Dallas Cowboys are 3-3, including 0-3 at home, including a 47-9 pre-bye loss to the Detroit Lions, the criticism keeps coming. Everything about the Cowboys seems urgent and tense.

Yet here is the reality they are facing as they return from their much-needed week of rest. They are just 1.5 games back in the NFC East and only one game out of what would currently be the last wild-card sport in the conference.

And most importantly, there are still 11 long weeks to go.

So all is not lost and the season is not over — at least not yet. There's plenty of time for the Cowboys to turn their fortunes around. Whether they really can or not is what Fox Sports NFL writers David Helman and Ralph Vacchiano explore in this week's edition of Cowboys Corner:

The Cowboys don't get an easy return from the bye week, with a Sunday night game in San Francisco. It's obviously early, but after being blown out by Detroit heading into their bye, is this game a "must win" if they're still going to be a championship contender?

Vacchiano: I don't love the idea of "must-win" games until they're actually elimination games, because so much changes week-to-week in the NFL. But for their own psyche, and that of their beleaguered fans, yeah. They really need this to get out of their collective funk.

And a big reason for that is this isn't the 49ers team that pounded them 42-10 in San Francisco last year (on their way to the Super Bowl). These 49ers have been battered by injuries — RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Brandon Aiyuk, DT Javon Hargrove, LB Dre Greenlaw are all out, and the statuses of WR Deebo Samuel and TE George Kittle are in up in the air. Their defense isn't what it used to be. They're struggling to win close games.

It's still not an easy game, though. And it sure would feel good for everyone if they went in there and won. And the Cowboys really need something to feel good about right now.

Helman: It's a well-worn joke, but it really would be peak Cowboys behavior to go out to the Bay and beat the 49ers at a time when the vibes in Dallas are at an all-time low.

But no, I can't say this game is a "must" win for the simple reason that they're .500 and still have more than half the season to go. We've seen plenty of teams pull out of bigger nosedives than this. Just last year, the Packers and Rams both rebounded from 3-6 starts to make the playoffs.

Having said that, it does feel like the Cowboys could really use some good news. Jerry Jones is agitated, the fanbase is restless and Mike McCarthy seems to be catching hell from every angle. At some point, it's got to wear on the roster to be weighed down by everything.

I don't think the Cowboys "need" to win, but I'll say this: I think it would be big for them to play a competitive game. There's no shame in losing by a touchdown on the road against one of the NFC's heavyweights, even if the 49ers are banged up right now. If they get wiped off the field again, the way they were by Detroit, it's going to get very loud and very ugly.

The 49ers and Cowboys renew their rivalry on Sunday in San Francisco. (Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images)

What has surprised you the most about the Cowboys in the first six games of the season?

Helman: I suspected the Cowboys' defense might take a step back. They let all their depth along the defensive line walk in free agency, and they came into the season without many proven linebackers. But even if I thought they might decline slightly, I did not see this collapse coming — particularly when it comes to stopping the run.

The numbers are crazy. The Cowboys have the third-worst success rate against the run as well as the most Expected Points added against the run — terrible marks for measuring a unit's efficiency. They have stuffed the ball carrier at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 9.5% of attempts, which is the worst mark in the league. They have allowed 25 explosive runs (gains of 10+ yards), which is 10th-worst in the league. That number gets worse when you realize the nine teams above them have all played more games.

It's been a disaster, to be blunt. It might be asking too much to expect Mike Zimmer to completely turn things around after the bye, but they have to find some degree of improvement if they're going to have a chance at all.

Vacchiano: There are so many things, but I think I'm blown away by how bad their defense has become. And it was really a mess even before they lost DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. I mistakenly believed the transition at defensive coordinator from Dan Quinn to the very accomplished Mike Zimmer would be smooth.

That hasn't happened. It's a little hard to quantify it now, because losing those two was such a blow. But I can't get over that 44-19 loss at home to New Orleans in Week 2. Allowing touchdowns on every one of the first six possessions, against a team I think we all knew wasn't nearly that good? That was probably the proverbial canary in the coal mine for the season, because we knew the Cowboys' one-dimensional offense wasn't going to be able to drag this team to the playoffs on its own.

Again, some of this is skewed because it's without Parsons and Lawrence, but the Cowboys are giving up more points per game (28.0) than any team but the awful Carolina Panthers. They rank 24th in overall defense (336.5 yards per game) and 27th against the run (143.2). They were the fifth-ranked defense in the NFL last year and they got CB Trevon Diggs back. They didn't do a lot to help themselves in the offseason, but until the injuries hit they hadn't lost much either.

I don't know if this is all on Zimmer. But he sure does have a lot of work to do the rest of the way.

It's pretty clear that Jerry Jones really is "all in" on this roster and isn't interested in adding help from the outside. But if you were the GM, what's the one deal you'd try to make before the Nov. 5 trading deadline.

Vacchiano: Every time I watch this offense for the last two years I've thought, "If only they had a running back who could run with a little bit of power." That's not Ezekiel Elliott anymore, clearly. And it's too late to go back and undo their Derrick Henry mistake.

I know they could use another reliable receiver too, but I think running back is a bigger need. They could probably get the shifty Miles Sanders out of Carolina for virtually nothing if they wanted. But I would aim higher and see what Jacksonville wants for Travis Etienne. I know he's hurt — and the medical evaluation matters — and I also know he's struggling.

But he is 25, powerful and explosive when healthy, and a good receiver, too. He's better than Rico Dowdle and would add a new dimension to the Cowboys' offense. Best of all for Jerry Jones, Etienne is still on his rookie deal and they'd only owe him about $1.5 million for the rest of this season and about $6.1 million in 2025.

Of course, those are all reasons why the Jaguars aren't likely to trade him, even though he's been out-performed by Tank Bigsby this season. And if they were to trade him, the cost would be high. But he sure does look like a player who needs a change of scenery. So if I were GM, that's a deal I'd at least try to make.

Helman: I love Ralph's idea of trying to get more explosive on offense. I certainly wouldn't be opposed to the Cowboys trying to trade for a running back or receiver.

I'm going to look at the other side of the ball, though. I just complained about how miserable the run defense was, and I'd like to see them get aggressive to try to fix it. How about raiding one of the league's best run defenses, the Tennessee Titans? No, the Cowboys won't be willing to pay the price for Jeffery Simmons, but could I interest you in Sebastian Joseph-Day?

He's not a household name but Joseph-Day has been good at his job for quite some time, and his job is exactly what the Cowboys need — a 6-foot-4, 310-pound space-eater. He doesn't have jaw-dropping statistics, but he'd go a long way toward shoring up the run defense. He's also playing on a one-year, $4 million contract, which (I assume) would make him easier to pry out of Nashville.

What would you say is the percent chance right now that Jones is going to fire Mike McCarthy at the end of this season, and do you see any scenario where he'd make an in-season coaching change?

Helman: There's always a scenario for a mid-season firing. Jones probably never dreamed he'd fire Wade Phillips midway through the 2010 season, but then the Cowboys went up to Green Bay and lost, 45-7, to drop to an abysmal 1-7 on the year. Phillips was out the next day. That's why I think it would be smart for the Cowboys to avoid another blowout against the 49ers, because that's the type of thing that makes an owner impatient.

But you still have to consider the big picture. It took a complete collapse for Jones to fire Phillips — and even then, he said as recently as this week that he regrets the decision. He's not going to do the same to McCarthy unless the results truly are so bad that it leaves him no other choice.

Now, as for after the season? I'm starting to believe this could be the end. There's plenty of time for a turnaround, but it doesn't currently look like this season is going anywhere promising. On top of that, you're starting to hear some alarming soundbites coming out of Dallas-Fort Worth, like Jones mentioning this week that the Cowboys have been running some bad plays and bad concepts — an assertion that McCarthy then denied, because of course he was asked about it shortly afterward.

I still think the Cowboys are talented enough to make a playoff push, so I'm going to hold off making a real judgment just yet. But right now, it feels like McCarthy's odds of getting a new contract are about a 50/50 coin flip.

Vacchiano: I actually think the chances are low. I'd probably give a 35 percent chance that Jones fires McCarthy after the season. And it's way lower than that — like 5 percent, maybe — that anything happens in-season.

Jones is a frustratingly patient man, especially when it comes to his coaches. Sometimes that's even a good thing. But he's not prone to wild, emotional swings or decisions, and he generally seems to foster a good working relationship with the coaches he chooses. So for an in-season change to happen things would have to get real, real bad. Think: More blowout losses at home, a long losing streak, a record deep underwater, like 3-10.

It would have to be so hopeless that Jones would see no other choice to stop the constant embarrassment. And remember, then he'd likely have to turn things over to defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, whose defense isn't exactly building his resume up this year.

As for the offseason, I really do think Jones doesn't want to fire McCarthy. He just liked the idea of creating pressure by having him coach in the last year of his contract. I also believe the Cowboys will win enough to stay in contention to the end, maybe even make the playoffs, and then they can all blame their eventual failure on injuries or other issues. He won't view McCarthy as a problem as much as he'll dream about what this whole group can do with just one more season together.

I know that probably feels a little too familiar for Cowboys fans.

How hot is Mike McCarthy's seat? (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)

There's an ESPN story out about the fan tours the Dallas Cowboys offer of The Star, their training facility and team offices in Frisco, Tex., that happen while the players and coaches are there during the season. The story said players consider it "one of the biggest distractions" of being a Cowboy. Some former players said it makes players feel "kind of like you're in a zoo." What was your main takeaway from that story?

Vacchiano: Well, if that's the reason why the Dallas Cowboys are struggling or have fallen short of a championship all these years, then we've discovered the real problem with this organization: They draft the softest players on the planet. Seriously, I get that it's a cash grab by the Joneses (48% goes to the players, by the way). I can even see why players don't like it. But "Oh no! There are strange people here in the hallway. And — gasp — they're looking at us!" can't be the reason for their problems. It just can't be.

All organizations do something that their players don't like. Every single one. Some are big deals. Most are little annoyances. This really falls into the latter category. It's not like the tour groups are allowed in meetings where they get to offer suggestions. Although, come to think of it, maybe that's something the Cowboys should try.

And you know what else? The tour makes kids happy. And if their parents want to shell out $40 per person for it — or $90 for a "Q&A session with an AI Jerry hologram" (and really, who wouldn't want to pay for that?) — then just smile and wave at the kids and walk on by. Or be a nice guy and say "Hello!" Or "Go Cowboys!" That little interaction will make their young lives. And if that little distraction really keeps you from winning on Sunday, maybe it's time to get a new job.

Maybe ask "AI Jerry" if he can set you up as a tour guide.

Helman: My main takeaway is that these are the pitfalls of being America's Team.

The Cowboys are more visible than anyone and more profitable than anyone, and they do everything they can to keep it that way. You can tour their facility, you can tour their stadium. They share their indoor practice facility with local high schools. If you win the right prize from their Texas Lottery games, you can tour their war room during draft weekend. If you're willing to pay the membership fee, you can belong to the social club built into their headquarters and eat lunch or dinner overlooking their practice fields. The Cowboys are going to find a way to keep eyeballs fixated on them and money rolling in.

When things are going well, that's a ton of fun. The Cowboys are one of those teams — like the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Lakers — that have a certain magnetism to them when they're winning. Players definitely benefit from that, for the record. Marketing opportunities and advertising dollars are easy to find when you play for the Cowboys, even if you aren't a star player on the team.

But when things aren't going well, this is the result. The circus that surrounds the Cowboys can be a lot to handle, and it's an easy place to throw criticism when the team isn't winning.

Do I think this is the reason the Cowboys haven't won another Super Bowl in almost 30 years? Of course not. But I do think it takes the right type of players and the right caliber of roster to overcome a spotlight of this magnitude. And as warm as that spotlight can be during the good times, it can feel awfully glaring during the bad.

David Helman covers the NFL for FOX Sports and hosts the NFL on FOX podcast. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team's official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing "Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion" about the quarterback's time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.