National Football League

Cowboys draft scenarios: 3 options for how the first 3 rounds could go

Updated Apr. 10, 2023 3:26 p.m. ET

We've got to acknowledge that the Cowboys have gotten better at hiding their cards.

Toward the tail end of the Jason Garrett era, it really felt like we had the short list of draft prospects down to a science at this time of year. In the four cycles that Mike McCarthy has overseen, it's felt much more like a mystery.

Sure, they can't keep every secret. They telegraphed their interest in Ole Miss edge rusher Sam Williams last spring, and no one was surprised to see them draft Trevon Diggs back in 2020. But as far as first-round picks go, it's been a guessing game.

That's not going to deter anyone from trying to figure it out. The Cowboys' list of 30 allotted pre-draft visitors started to leak last week, and the race to read the tea leaves is underway.

They certainly don't seem married to one specific strategy. The reported list has at least one first-round prospect from seven different position groups. That's the fun of not having any glaring needs.

If that's the case, this feels like a fun opportunity to consider the possibilities. Focusing on the first three picks to be made, let's look at different routes the Cowboys might take through this draft.

With an assist from the Pro Football Focus simulator, here are three scenarios that did a lot to shape my understanding of the first two days of the draft.

Scenario 1: Speed, Speed, Speed

Round 1, Pick 26: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Round 2, Pick 58: Tyrique Stevenson, CB, Miami

Round 3, Pick 90: Chandler Zavala, OG, North Carolina State

I'm pretty confident the Cowboys will have a choice between a top receiver and a top tight end at the back end of the first round. Here, I went for home-run ability by opting for Flowers over Notre Dame's Michael Mayer. Flowers is on the small side, but he can play all over and he's got juice. I was incredibly intrigued when I saw his name on the Cowboys' list of visitors. Along with Brandin Cooks, he'd add another big play threat to the offense.

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Cornerback isn't a pressing need in 2023, but it will be next year. Stevenson is 6-0 with arms that measure just shy of 33 inches, and he boasts 4.45 speed. Need I say anything else, given what we know about Dan Quinn's preference for athletic, rangy defensive backs?

Zavala hits a sweet spot of need and talent. He could compete for the left guard job as a rookie, and that just so happens to be one of the biggest holes on this roster. There were some talented running backs available here, but shoring up the offensive line feels more important.

Scenario 2: Where's The Beef?

Round 1, Pick 26: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

Round 2, Pick 58: Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin

Round 3, Pick 90: Anthony Johnson Jr., DB, Iowa State

My theory is that Mayer gets glossed over by draftniks because there's nothing sexy about being a very complete prospect. First-round tight ends don't have a great track record over the last decade, but Mayer seems about as "safe" as they come. Even if he's not a Day 1 starter, I think he'd make the Dallas offense better as both a receiver and a blocker right away. That feels like a worthy tradeoff for the lack of explosiveness.

I'll admit, it would be surprising to see the Cowboys draft Benton so highly, given their preference for pass-rushers. But this defense needs size and physicality against the run, and the Wisconsin native can help in those regards. Again, they wouldn't need him to start immediately, and perhaps that lessens the sting of drafting a non-premium position.

In all honesty, I wasn't in love with what the board brought me to wrap this up. Wide receiver and interior offense line were picked clean, as was linebacker. There were some good defensive tackles available, but I just drafted one. Anthony Johnson Jr. has plus physical traits, as well as experience playing safety and corner.

Scenario 3: Forcing The Issue

Round 1, Pick 26: Steve Avila, OG, TCU

Round 2, Pick 58: Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA

Round 3, Pick 90: Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan

Just like that, we've fixed the offense. Sure, some of these picks seem like reaches — but don't make the mistake of thinking their draft board lines up with what we think. It was just last year they drafted Tyler Smith much higher than any outsiders expected.

If they want a plug-and-play guard, this may well be what they have to do. Not many are talking about Avila as a first-round pick, but he's not likely to last all the way to Pick No. 58. The same could be said for Florida's O'Cyrus Torrence. Much like Smith last year, is anyone going to care that the pick is a slight "reach" if Avila steps in and starts from the get-go? What's the fun in drafting a dominant new guard without a back to run behind him? If the Cowboys don't draft Bijan Robinson in the first round, Charbonnet represents the best of the rest. He's got underrated athleticism to go with the size and physicality to be a true bellcow, and he'd be a hell of a complement to Tony Pollard. Sure, there will be good running backs available on Day 3 — but like I said, we're forcing the issue here.

Zach Charbonnet rushes for third TD of the game as UCLA regains lead against Arizona

Wrapping things up, I'm opting for tight end over a handful of edge rushers and linebackers. The Cowboys' tight end room is already Big Ten-heavy, and Schoonmaker would add to that. As a rookie, I'm mainly hoping he can make an impact as a blocker, and we'll find touches for him as a receiver as need be.

It would be wild to see the Cowboys focus so heavily on offense, but there is precedent for it. Back in 2013, they spent their first three picks on Travis Frederick, Gavin Escobar and Terrance Williams. And just two years ago, they used their first six picks on defense to help Dan Quinn revamp that unit. This might be slightly over-the-top, but you damn sure wouldn't have to think about the run game for a while.

David Helman covers the Dallas Cowboys for FOX Sports. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing "Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion" about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.

Cowboys draft scenarios: 3 options for how the first 3 rounds could go

Scenario 1: Speed, Speed, Speed

What is Cowboys offseason grade after Stephon Gilmore, Brandin Cooks moves?

Scenario 2: Where's The Beef?

Scenario 3: Forcing The Issue

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