National Football League

Dak Prescott, Aaron Jones, Tyler Lockett top list of stars the NFL Draft missed on

Published Oct. 1, 2021 5:16 p.m. ET

By Rob Rang
Special to FOX Sports

As is proven every season, the NFL Draft is far from an exact science. Scout long enough and you're bound to miss on an evaluation sooner or later.

I pride myself on "knowing the goods when I see the goods," however, and am happy to stack my success rate over the past 20 years with anyone’s – including the true draft experts running the 32 different scouting departments throughout the NFL.

As such, I won’t shy from my mistakes. Instead, I’ve candidly listed them here as a reminder of a few players over the years who have ascended to become leaders of the pack, rather than the underdogs initially expected.

QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (fourth round, 2016)

Of the thousands of player evaluations I’ve completed over the years, no mistake bothers me more than the poor grade I gave Prescott prior to the 2016 draft.

Typically, I evaluate a player based on several games. In the case of a multi-year star such as Prescott at Mississippi State, however, his evaluation was refined over the course of seasons, not just a handful of contests. He showed steady improvement against elite competition, capping a stellar career by completing a personal-best 66.2% of his passes for 3,793 yards and a sparkling 29 touchdowns against just five interceptions as a senior, while also rushing for another 588 yards and 10 more scores. Better yet, he did it with the same class and commitment that he has shown since joining Dallas.

So, what’s not to like, right?

While it seems silly in hindsight now given the way the NFL has gravitated toward dual-threat quarterbacks the past five years, I was among the scouts questioning whether Prescott could duplicate his success outside of then-Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen’s scheme. Those concerns were only exacerbated at the Senior Bowl, where Prescott struggled with accuracy.

I certainly was not the only one critical of Prescott. He was, after all, the eighth quarterback selected in 2016 (No. 135 overall), behind the likes of Paxton Lynch (26th overall, Denver), Christian Hackenberg (51st overall, New York Jets), Cody Kessler (93rd overall, Cleveland) and Connor Cook (100th overall, Oakland), among others. But my giving him a fourth- to fifth-round grade at the time was a regrettable (but educational) case of putting too much stock into a few practices at an all-star game, instead of a player’s full collection of work.

With all due respect to the rest of the NFL’s superstar quarterbacks, no one has been more impressive thus far this season than Prescott.

RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (fifth round 2017)

If it was my eyes that failed me in Mobile with Prescott, it was my ears that should have rescued me with Jones. Sources close to both Jones and his then-agent Leigh Steinberg tried to warn me that the University of Texas El-Paso product was going to smash my seventh-round grade.

The same burst, darting quickness and soft hands – all of which have helped Jones greatly outperform his fifth-round selection (No. 182 overall) back in 2017 – was obvious on his collegiate tape. However, I was skeptical whether the 5-9, 208-pounder would be able to maintain the lofty 6.3 yard-per-carry average in the NFL he’d enjoyed against the likes of New Mexico State, Houston Baptist and North Texas, among others.

Give Jones credit, though. His talent was immediately clear in Green Bay, helping him to play in 12 games as a rookie, including four starts for a Packers team that lost Aaron Rodgers halfway through the year to a broken collarbone.

Since then, Jones has not just duplicated his success at UTEP, he actually has improved upon it, scoring 43 total touchdowns in his first four years in Green Bay – 10 more than he had with the Miners over the same amount of time.

And like Prescott, Jones is playing as good as ever in 2021, with five touchdowns in the Packers’ first three games, including three as a receiver.

WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (third round, 2015)

Though I pride myself on accurately evaluating players from all over the country, there is no doubt that my ascent in the business was sparked by correctly tabbing Russell Wilson, Lofa Tatupu and Richard Sherman, among others, as future stars for my hometown Seahawks.

That doesn’t mean, however, that I’ve nailed all of their picks. In fact, I missed "big" with Lockett, whose diminutive frame had me convinced the former Kansas State product might follow his father (Kevin) and uncle (Aaron) as a capable NFL receiver, but hardly a future Pro Bowler who would go on to set the Seahawks’ all-time single-season record for receptions (100) last season, his second consecutive year eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark.

Lockett was dominant at Kansas State, leading the nation in kick-return yardage as a true freshman and punt-return yardage as a senior, scoring six combined touchdowns as a returner while shattering all of the career receiving records (most catches, yards and touchdowns) previously set by his father. In doing so, he demonstrated not only elusiveness, breakaway speed and terrific body control, but great savvy as a route-runner. He was officially clocked at 4.40 in the 40-yard dash at the combine, with some of Seattle’s scouts' hand-times in the mid 4.3s.

My good friend and proud Kansas State alum, Herbie Teope, tried telling me the Seahawks got a steal with Lockett with the 69th overall selection in 2015, but I struggled to give him even a third-round grade due to durability concerns. At 5-10 and just 182 pounds, Lockett looks like a stiff breeze could knock him over. I was convinced the weather and run-heavy approach in Seattle would limit his productivity.

Instead, Lockett has proven durable, productive and as respected in the Seattle locker room as any player on the roster, playing in 98 of a possible 99 regular-season games since being drafted.

OT Andrew Whitworth, Los Angeles Rams (second round, 2006)

One of the most dominant blockers in the college and pro game over the past quarter-century, Whitworth is my favorite case study in what I like to call the "symbiotic effect," when one player can be under or overrated because of scouts’ incorrect perception he’s living off the talent of more gifted teammates.

Despite a prototypical frame and never missing a single one of the 52 games (and only one practice) during his career at LSU, Whitworth entered the NFL in 2006 overshadowed by some of his flashier Tigers teammates, including the next year’s No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell (Oakland) and fellow first-rounders Joseph Addai (Indianapolis), Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City) and Craig Davis (San Diego).

Because of all that talent at the "skill positions" I failed to give Whitworth his due, thinking the behemoth 6-7, 330-pounder would have to move to right tackle in the NFL and therefore giving him a late third-round grade.

While Les Miles ran a "pro-style" offense at LSU, it was hard to imagine a blocker of Whitworth’s size being able to adequately handle blindside duties against the ever-shrinking speed rushers of the NFL. Others in the league clearly felt the same way, allowing Whitworth to slide deep into the second round before Cincinnati nabbed him 55th overall, making him the eighth offensive lineman off the board.

Like all of the others on this list, Whitworth has since far outplayed that selection, still more than capably managing the critically important left tackle position in this, his 16th NFL season. Just like at LSU, there is plenty of glitzy skill-position talent overshadowing Whitworth with the Rams, but I certainly have learned my mistake in looking past his stellar play.

CB Xavien Howard, Miami Dolphins (second round, 2016)

Given the speed burners of today’s NFL, it looked like a foregone conclusion that Howard would slip into the middle rounds of the 2016 draft when he clocked in at just 4.58 seconds in the 40-yard dash at the combine – one of several disappointing results in his workout.

I’ve long been skeptical of players who shave a 10th of a second or more from their 40-yard dash results a few weeks later at their pro day, but apparently that was a mistake with Howard. The Baylor star not only improved to a very respectable 4.44 seconds in the prime-time event but also was quicker in his three-cone time (6.91 seconds at his pro day after 7.18 in Indianapolis) and added 5 feet, 5 inches to his vertical jump (38-5) and three more inches to his broad jump (10-5).

Howard’s uneven performances in workouts matched his play at Baylor, where he produced an eye-popping 23 passes defensed and 10 interceptions in just 29 career games but also surrendered plenty of big plays to opponents, as well. Typically, that kind of inconsistency can land a cornerback in an NFL coach’s doghouse pretty quickly. As such, I felt comfortable with my third-round grade on him entering the 2016 draft.

Instead, the Dolphins boldly traded up (with Baltimore) to nab him with the sixth pick of the second round (No. 38 overall) and he has since rewarded their aggression with his own.

Howard has emerged as one of the game’s best ballhawks, tying for the league lead with seven interceptions in 2017 and owning the title, outright, this past year with 10 picks – the most in the NFL since Everson Walls collected 11 for the Dallas Cowboys back in 1981.

One of the most recognized names in the industry, Rob Rang has been covering the NFL Draft for more than 20 years, with work at FOX, Sports Illustrated, CBSSports.com, USA Today, Yahoo, NFL.com and NFLDraftScout.com, among others.