National Football League

Cowboys offseason outlook: Big changes coming in Big D?

Updated Feb. 28, 2023 1:33 p.m. ET

There's only one thing that matters to Jerry Jones when it comes to his Dallas Cowboys — or at least only one thing that should matter. It's not that they went 12-5 last season and won a playoff game for the first time in four years. And it's not that they've gone 24-10 over the past two seasons.

It's that the Cowboys still haven't won a Super Bowl in 27 years.

That's it, and that's the backdrop to where they go from here with a franchise that is forever in a win-now mode. Jones, the 80-year-old owner, knows the key pieces of a championship are in place: a franchise quarterback, a strong offensive line, dynamic playmakers, and a defense led by one of the best pass rushes in the game.

He also knows that something is still missing — a piece of the puzzle to finally get his team over the top.

[Dak Prescott's contract situation highlights Cowboys' offseason storylines]

What is it? And how will the Cowboys get it, while holding the core of their 12-win team intact? That's the problem facing Jones and returning head coach Mike McCarthy.

Here's a look at the Cowboys' offseason situation and the key questions and decisions they will face:

Estimated cap space

They are currently $7 million over the $224.8 million salary cap (per OverTheCap.com). They have some work to do, which surely will include restructuring the contracts of QB Dak Prescott, whose 2023 cap number is a hefty $49.1 million, and DE Demarcus Lawrence ($26 million). RB Ezekiel Elliott ($16.7 million) is likely looking at a restructure or a pay cut, too — if the Cowboys don't cut him outright. And they could cut some other big names, including LT Tyron Smith (a savings of $9.6 million).

Key free agents

RB Tony Pollard, TE Dalton Schultz, LB Leighton Vander Esch, S Donovan Wilson, K Brett Maher, CB Anthony Brown, LB Dante Fowler, WR Noah Brown, G Connor McGovern, QB Cooper Rush.

Coaching carousel

Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore took the fall for the Cowboys' failures down the stretch, though he landed on his feet as the Chargers' offensive coordinator. He was replaced in Dallas by Brian Schottenheimer, who was a consultant with the Cowboys last year. But this will be McCarthy's offense in 2023. The head coach is going to call the plays, just like he used to do in Green Bay.

Meanwhile, the best coaching news of the offseason in Dallas is the return of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who once again was one of the hottest names on the head coaching interview circuit. He interviewed with the Broncos, Cardinals and Colts, but he ultimately decided to return to the Cowboys where speculation will continue that he's McCarthy's eventual successor.

Nick's early NFL Tiers

Nick Wright says the Cowboys are "one piece away" in his way-too-early edition of NFL Tiers featuring all 32 teams.

Three biggest needs

1. Wide receiver

CeeDee Lamb had a remarkable season, with 107 catches, 1,359 yards and nine touchdowns. The other seven wide receivers on the Cowboys combined for 97-1,161-7. Imagine how good Lamb and the Cowboys offense could have been if opposing defenses thought there was any other receiver they needed to care about.

The Cowboys never really recovered from last offseason when they traded Amari Cooper to Cleveland without having a replacement in mind. They need to find one now — either a top receiver in the draft (they pick 27th in the first round, so they'd need to move up) or the best free agent cap room can buy. Unfortunately, this is a terrible free-agent WR class, but it doesn't matter. Pick the best one and go get him.

2. Defensive tackle

The Cowboys' biggest defensive issue all season was stopping the run, and they were particularly vulnerable in the middle of their defensive line. They were able to generate plenty of pressure off the edge, but they were so desperate for help in the middle that they traded for 30-year-old Johnathan Hankins in October.

He's a free agent, and they could bring him back on a one-year deal, but they know they need an upgrade here. There has been some speculation they could shop at the top of the market here, though the Commanders placed the offseason's first franchise tag on Pro Bowl DT Daron Payne on Tuesday. But it's a non-exclusive tag, meaning that other teams can still talk with Payne. The Cowboys would have to find the salary cap space for a move like that first.

3. Cornerback

The Cowboys have Trevon Diggs here, but there are questions about the rest of the group, which was a big rotation for most of the season. DaRon Bland had a surprising five interceptions as a rookie, but it's unclear if he's the long-term answer at the second cornerback position. One more good one could really lock down a defense that ranked eighth overall against the pass, though mostly because of the stellar pass rush (54 sacks).

"Let's trade problems"

Skip Bayless urges the Cowboys to trade Dak Prescott for Aaron Rodgers.

Three key questions

1. Is the Ezekiel Elliott Era over in Dallas?

It might be. He'll only be 28 in July, but he was the Cowboys' second-best running back behind Pollard most of this season with a career-low 876 yards. He did have 12 touchdowns, showing he can still be a short-yardage force. But there are a lot of miles on his legs, he didn't have a 100-yard game this season, and he's only topped 80 yards three times in his last 27 games.

That's not good for a guy due to make $10.9 million, with a cap number of $16.7 million. He said he'd be open to a pay cut, but the Cowboys need cap room and they can clear $10.9 million of it by making him a June 1 cut. That would be more than the $10.1 million they'd need if they put the franchise tag on Pollard.

2. Who will be the Cowboys' No. 2 receiver (And will it be Odell Beckham Jr.)?

They really blew it by not replacing Cooper last year, because they are staring at a truly awful free-agent receiver class. Their best bet, honestly, might be to resume their flirtation with Beckham and take a chance on a guy who'll be 31 in November, didn't play last season and has torn his ACL twice in his last two years.

On second thought, the Cowboys might be better off if they can strike a reasonable, short-term deal with a free agent like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jakobi Meyers or Allen Lazard. None of them is a great option, though they're better than going with Noah Brown or T.Y. Hilton again. The problem is, if those are the three best receivers on the market — and they probably are — getting them on a reasonable deal might not be possible.

3. Will they make a big splash in free agency in an effort to go all-in on a Super Bowl run next year?

It's almost hard to believe that the Cowboys, with their flashy owner and all his money, aren't usually big free-agent spenders. Their stated priority is to re-sign their own. And they have plenty of their own to re-sign this offseason with a long list of key players headed to free agency.

But while bringing back Pollard, TE Dalton Schultz, LB Leighton Vander Esch and others would be nice, maybe it's time to make a big splash with a difference-maker? Clearing the cap space for that player won't be easy, meaning the Cowboys might have to forgo bringing back some of their own guys. But would they dive in, wallet-first, for a big DT like Payne or Javon Hargrave, or a corner like James Bradberry? Or how about a running back like Saquon Barkley instead of bringing Pollard and Elliott back?

Probably not, though those are the kinds of offseason moves modern Super Bowl contenders tend to make.

Draft Prescott's replacement?

Emmanuel Acho and David Helman discuss reports that the Cowboys are pondering the possibility of drafting a replacement for Dak Prescott.

Offseason outlook

The window may not exactly be closing on the Cowboys, but each year they make it a little harder to keep it open. They can do pretty much whatever they want this offseason, but the cost would be losing some of their own free agents and/or restructuring contracts to push their cap issues into the future.

Honestly, though, with an 80-year-old owner and a storied franchise that is closing in on the end of its third decade without a Super Bowl, who cares about the future? The Cowboys have to be all about now, making an Eagles-like investment in a 2023 run. It's too late to be cautious. They have the core of a championship team. Now they just have to do whatever it takes to push themselves over the top.

It just doesn't seem like they actually will.

Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

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