National Football League

Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions: Prediction, odds, picks

Published Dec. 27, 2023 1:45 p.m. ET

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The Dallas Cowboys (10-5) are favored by six points versus the Detroit Lions (11-4) on December 30, 2023, starting at 8:15 PM ET, airing on ABC/ESPN. A total of 53.5 points has been set for the matchup, which is the highest opening total this season.

The Cowboys lost 22-20 to the Miami Dolphins in their Week 16 contest, while the Lions defeat the Minnesota Vikings 30-24 in their last tile. 

While both of these teams are already in the postseason, there is still a lot riding on this game. The Lions are in competition for the top seed in the conference, while the Cowboys can still win the NFC East. 

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Lions and Cowboys — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill. 

Cowboys vs. Lions Odds & Betting Lines

Cowboys vs. Lions Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Detroit (+6) 
• Pick OU: Under (53.5) 
• Prediction: Dallas 28 - Detroit 22

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill

The Cowboys elite offense has certainly been humbled the last couple of weeks in road losses vs. the Bills and Dolphins. The good news is they return home where they are an absolute machine on offense, and get a Lions defense that is vulnerable against the pass. 

The Cowboys will get into the 30s at home like they always do, and the Lions will get their fair share of points as well. 

This feels like 34-24 type of game, let’s go Over. 

PICK: Over 53.5 points scored by both teams combined

How to Watch Dallas vs. Detroit

• Game Date: Saturday, December 30, 2023
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Venue: AT&T Stadium
• Location: Arlington, Texas
• TV: Watch on ABC/ESPN

Cowboys vs. Lions Recent Matchups

• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Dallas has defeated Detroit five times.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, Dallas has put up 151 points, while Detroit has compiled 98.

Dallas Betting Info

• In 15 Dallas games this season, it has nine wins against the spread.
• When playing as at least 6-point favorites this season, the Cowboys have an ATS record of 6-2.
• Dallas has combined with its opponent to eclipsed the over/under in 53.3% of its contests this year (eight times in 15 games with a set point total).
• When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Cowboys are 10-1, earning a win 90.9% of the time.
• Dallas has a record of 7-1 in games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -250 or shorter (87.5%).
• The Cowboys have an implied win probability, based on the moneyline, of 71.4%.

Cowboys Stats

Dallas' Key Players

Offense

• Dak Prescott has 3,892 passing yards (fifth in the NFL), 30 touchdowns (first in the NFL) and seven interceptions this year. He has completed 68.4% of his passes, averaging 259.5 yards per game and 7.5 per attempt.
• He has tacked on 237 rushing yards (15.8 per game) and two touchdowns on the ground.
• CeeDee Lamb has caught 109 passes (first in the NFL) on 151 targets for 1,424 total yards (second in the NFL) and nine touchdowns. He is averaging 7.3 catches and 94.9 yards per game in 15 games.
• Tony Pollard's output on the ground this season includes 886 yards (eighth in the NFL) and five TDs. He's averaging 59.1 yards per game and 4 per attempt (21st in the NFL).
• Pollard also has 52 catches, 295 yards and zero TDs through the air.
• Brandin Cooks has put up 558 receiving yards and six touchdowns with 43 catches on 65 targets. He's averaging 3.1 receptions and 39.9 yards per game.

Defense

• On defense for the Cowboys, Micah Parsons has powered the unit with 53 tackles, 15 TFL, and 13 sacks in 2023.
• Daron Bland has 62 tackles, three TFL, and eight interceptions this season.
• Damone Clark has collected 99 tackles and four TFL this year. He leads the Cowboys in tackles.
• So far this season, Markquese Ball has 82 tackles and two TFL. He's second on the Cowboys in tackles.

Detroit Betting Info

• Detroit is 10-5-0 against the spread this year.
• Games involving Detroit have hit the over on 10 occasions this season.
• The Lions have split the two games they've played as underdogs this season.
• Detroit has not been a bigger underdog this season than the +205 moneyline set for this game.
• The implied probability of a win by the Lions based on the moneyline is 32.8%.

Lions Stats

Detroit's Key Players

Offense

• Jared Goff has passed for 3,984 yards this year (to rank third in the NFL), with 27 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and 10 interceptions. He is completing 67.7% of his attempts while averaging 265.6 yards per game and 7.4 per attempt.
• He's added 21 yards on the ground (sixth on the Lions), with two rushing touchdowns. He's averaging 1.4 yards per game and 0.7 per attempt.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has 872 rushing yards (second on the Lions) and nine rushing touchdowns, while averaging 67.1 yards per game and 5.7 per attempt (first in the NFL).
• Gibbs has also collected 316 receiving yards (24.3 per game) on 51 catches (3.9 per game). He's been targeted 67 times and has caught one touchdown pass.
• So far this season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has caught 106 passes (third in the NFL) for 1,281 receiving yards (fifth in the NFL) with eight touchdowns in the passing game (seventh in the NFL). He has been targeted 146 total times and is averaging 7.6 receptions per game in 14 games played.
• David Montgomery has 910 rushing yards (leading the Lions and seventh in the NFL) and 11 rushing touchdowns, while averaging 75.8 yards per game and 4.7 per attempt (10th in the NFL).

Defense

• Alex Anzalone's 2023 showing includes 112 tackles, six TFL, and three sacks in 14 games. He leads the Lions in tackles.
• Aidan Hutchinson's stat sheet includes one interception as well as 42 tackles, seven TFL, 6.5 sacks, and seven passes defended.
• Brian Branch has intercepted three passes on top of 69 tackles, seven TFL, one sack, and 10 passes defended in the 2023 campaign.
• Kerby Joseph's season stats include 70 tackles, one TFL, and four interceptions through 13 games. He is third on the Lions in tackles.

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NFL - Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys - 12/31/2023