National Football League

Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Prediction, odds, picks

Published Oct. 16, 2023 12:18 p.m. ET

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The Dallas Cowboys (3-2) are considered favorites (-2) according to the point spread ahead of their game against the Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) on October 16, starting at 8:15 PM ET, airing on ABC/ESPN. 

The Cowboys were defeated 42-10 in their Week 5 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, the Chargers are coming off a bye. 

Which team will be victorious on Monday night?

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Cowboys and Chargers — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from Sam Panayotovich. 

Cowboys vs. Chargers Odds & Betting Lines

Cowboys vs. Chargers Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Los Angeles (+2) 
• Pick OU: Under (50.5) 
• Prediction: Los Angeles 25 - Dallas 24

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Expert Sam Panayotovich

Tonight's game is a total coin flip.

I could easily make a case for Dallas and Los Angeles, and while I liked the "Over" early last week, the total has ballooned from 47 all the way up to 51. There's not much value in any of the normal markets, so let's dive inside the props.

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will face one of the NFL's best defenses after four games against Miami, Tennessee, Minnesota and Las Vegas. That's not exactly a murderer's row.

Herbert's 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio is impressive, but Dallas' nasty pash rush will undoubtedly create situations where he's rushing throws. Star linebacker Micah Parsons racing towards you at full speed tends to hinder good decisions from time to time.

The Cowboys are one of the better teams in the league at turning you over – 11 takeaways in five games – and I’ll take even money on Herbert hurling at least one pass to a defender.

PICK: Justin Herbert throws interception (+100)

How to Watch Dallas vs. Los Angeles

• Game Date: Monday, October 16, 2023
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Venue: SoFi Stadium
• Location: Inglewood, California
• TV: Watch on ABC/ESPN

Cowboys vs. Chargers Recent Matchups

• In their last five head-to-head contests, Los Angeles has defeated Dallas four times.
• Over their last five head-to-head contests, Los Angeles has put up 134 points, while Dallas has tallied 93.

Dallas Betting Info

• In five Dallas games this year, it has three wins against the spread.
• When playing as at least 2-point favorites this season, the Cowboys have an ATS record of 3-1.
• Dallas games this year have hit the over on three of five set point totals (60%).
• The Cowboys have a 3-1 record in games they played as moneyline favorite (winning 75% of those games).
• Dallas has a record of 3-1 when it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -130 or shorter (75%).
• Looking at this contest's moneyline, the Cowboys' implied win probability is 56.5%.

Cowboys Stats

Dallas' Key Players

Offense

• Dak Prescott has passed for 1,061 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions this year. He averages 212.2 yards per game and 6.6 per attempt, while completing 69.4% of his passes.
• Tony Pollard has totaled 340 rushing yards (10th in the NFL) with two touchdowns (68 yards per game through five games). His 4.2 yards per attempt rank 21st in the league.
• He has caught 19 passes (on 22 targets) for 96 receiving yards with zero touchdowns. He's averaging 19.2 receiving yards and 3.8 catches per game.
• CeeDee Lamb has one touchdown catch this season, and has 27 receptions for 358 yards on 35 targets, while averaging 5.4 catches and 71.6 yards per game.
• KaVontae Turpin has 51 receiving yards and one touchdown with five catches on six targets. He's averaging one receptions and 10.2 yards per game.

Defense

• On defense, Micah Parsons has 18 tackles, six TFL, and four sacks in 2023.
• Daron Bland has one TFL, 18 tackles, and three interceptions.
• Jayron Kearse has recorded one interception and added 21 tackles, two TFL, one sack, and three passes defended.
• This season, Osa Odighizuwa has 14 tackles, four TFL, and three sacks.

Los Angeles Betting Info

• Los Angeles has covered the spread one time over four games with a set spread.
• Games involving Los Angeles have hit the over twice this season.
• This is the first time the Chargers will play as underdogs this season.
• Los Angeles has not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +110.
• The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 47.6% chance of a victory for the Chargers.

Chargers Stats

Los Angeles' Key Players

Offense

• Justin Herbert is averaging 7.6 passing yards per attempt (sixth in the NFL) and 276.5 yards per game this year, completing 71% of his passes on the way to 1,106 total yards, seven touchdowns (10th in the NFL) and one interception through four games.
• Herbert has also rushed for three touchdowns and 55 yards (fourth on the Chargers).
• Keenan Allen has 434 receiving yards (10th in the NFL) and three touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) on 35 receptions (eighth in the NFL), while being targeted 44 times.
• Joshua Kelley has rushed for one touchdown this year, and has totaled 207 rushing yards (51.8 per game and 3.6 per attempt).
• Austin Ekeler puts up 117 rushing yards per game over one game (117 total yards), with one rushing touchdown.
• Ekeler has also caught four passes for 47 yards (fifth on the Chargers). He's been targeted five times and averages 47 yards per game.

Defense

• Khalil Mack has 19 tackles, five TFL, six sacks, and two passes defended in 2023.
• Kenneth Murray's stats include one interception as well as 26 tackles, three TFL, one sack, and two passes defended.
• Tuli Tuipulotu has recorded two sacks (fourth on the Chargers) as well as four TFL and 17 tackles in the 2023 season.
• Michael Davis' season stats include 25 tackles and one TFL through four games. He is second on the Chargers in tackles.

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Sam Panayotovich