National Football League

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: Prediction, odds, picks

Published Nov. 22, 2023 1:44 p.m. ET

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The Detroit Lions (8-2) will be trying to continue a three-game winning run against the Green Bay Packers (4-6). The Lions are solid favorites, expected to win by at least a touchdown (currently -7.5). 

Both of these teams are coming off of Week 11 wins. The Packers took down the Los Angeles Chargers 23-20, while the Lions outlasted the Chicago Bears 31-26 in their tilt. 

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Packers and Lions — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from Will Hill. 

Lions vs. Packers Odds & Betting Lines

Lions vs. Packers Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Detroit (-7.5) 
• Pick OU: Under (46) 
• Prediction: Detroit 28 - Green Bay 17

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Expert Will Hill

The Lions were not overly impressive last week as they had to rally to beat the Bears, failing to cover the spread despite the victory. But, winning ugly is the sign of a good team, and the Lions are just that. 

They played the Packers two months ago and led 27-3 at halftime in a game they thoroughly dominated. That one was in Green Bay, and this one is in Detroit behind a raucous and enthusiastic home crowd.

I expect another convincing victory from the surging Lions.

PICK: Lions (-7.5) to win by more than 7.5 points

 

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How to Watch Detroit vs. Green Bay

• Game Date: Thursday, November 23, 2023
• Time: 12:30 PM ET
• Venue: Ford Field
• Location: Detroit, Michigan
• TV: Watch on FOX

Lions vs. Packers Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Detroit has collected three wins against Green Bay.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, Detroit has scored 111 points, while Green Bay has compiled 91.

Detroit Betting Info

• Detroit has played 10 games, posting seven wins against the spread.
• The Lions have covered the spread once when favored by 7.5 points or more this season (in two opportunities).
• Detroit games in 2023 have hit the over six times in 10 opportunities (60%).
• The Lions have put together a 7-1 record in games they played as the moneyline favorite (winning 87.5% of those games).
• Detroit has played as a moneyline favorite of -375 or shorter in just two games this season, and it won both.
• The Lions have an implied win probability, based on the moneyline, of 78.9%.

Lions Stats

Detroit's Key Players

Offense

• Jared Goff has 2,743 passing yards (fifth in the NFL), 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions this year. He has completed 68.1% of his passes, averaging 274.3 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.
• He has added 14 rushing yards (1.4 per game) and two touchdowns on the ground.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown has caught 73 passes (sixth in the NFL) on 98 targets for 898 total yards (fifth in the NFL) and five touchdowns. He is averaging 8.1 catches and 99.8 yards per game through nine games.
• David Montgomery's output on the ground this season includes 577 yards and eight TDs. He is averaging 82.4 yards per game and 4.9 per attempt (seventh in the NFL).
• Montgomery has totaled eight catches on 12 targets for 88 yards, though he has yet to score a receiving touchdown.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has run for 512 yards, averaging 64.0 yards per game and scoring five touchdowns.
• Gibbs has been targeted 44 times to the tune of 37 catches, 259 yards and zero TDs.

Defense

• On defense, Alex Anzalone has 81 tackles, 5.0 TFL, three sacks, and five passes defended in 2023.
• Aidan Hutchinson has 32 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 5.5 sacks, and one interception this season.
• Jerry Jacobs has recorded 40 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and three interceptions this year.
• So far this season, Brian Branch has 43 tackles, 7.0 TFL, and one interception.

Green Bay Betting Info

• Green Bay is 5-5-0 against the spread this season.
• This year, four Green Bay games have gone over the point total.
• The Packers have won three of the eight games they've played as underdogs this season.
• Green Bay has not been a bigger underdog this season than the +295 moneyline set for this game.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 25.3% chance of a victory for the Packers.

Packers Stats

Green Bay's Key Players

Offense

• In 10 games played this year, Jordan Love has racked up 2,331 passing yards, while throwing 16 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and completing 59.7% of his passes.
• He's added 182 yards on the ground (third on the Packers), while scoring two rushing touchdowns. He's averaging 18.2 yards per game and 5.4 per attempt.
• Jayden Reed has put together a 2023 stat sheet that includes 32 catches for 463 yards and four receiving touchdowns through 10 games played. He has been on the receiving end of 51 targets and is averaging 3.2 receptions per game.
• Through 10 games played this season, Romeo Doubs has 38 catches (3.8 receptions per game on 6.5 targets per game) for 396 yards and seven receiving touchdowns (second in the NFL).
• A.J. Dillon has scored one touchdown on the ground, while running for 405 total yards (3.5 per attempt and 40.5 per game).
• Dillon has also caught 16 passes for 146 yards (seventh on the Packers). He's been targeted 21 times and averages 14.6 yards per game.

Defense

• Quay Walker has amassed 5.0 TFL, 73 tackles, and one interception through eight games in 2023.
• Preston Smith has 5.0 sacks in addition to his 3.0 TFL and 34 tackles over 10 games.
• Over the 2023 season, Rudy Ford has 58 tackles and two interceptions in eight games.
• Rashan Gary's stat sheet includes 23 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 5.5 sacks, and one pass defended in 10 games

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