National Football League

Do Bill Belichick, Patriots need to step up their free-agent game post-Tom Brady?

Published Aug. 7, 2023 9:41 a.m. ET

It's been more than three years since the New England Patriots waved goodbye to Tom Brady in free agency. And since then, Bill Belichick's squad has logged only one playoff appearance and zero postseason wins.

Basically every Patriots player — from Mac Jones to David Andrews to Matthew Slater — has said that result isn't good enough.

New England needs to start doing things differently. Even Belichick needs to start doing things differently, most notably on the free-agency front.

New England is no longer building around Brady and his sizable (though discounted) contract. The Patriots have Mac Jones and his rent-controlled rookie deal. That opens up options for Belichick to spend more money. It also means that Jones is the pitchman for New England's offense when the team meets with free agents.

Jones sat down with Ezekiel Elliott when he recently visited and helped the team pitch the veteran running back. What did Jones tell Elliott?

"I always say it's a great group of guys already. Coming together as an offense is really important for us," said Jones, speaking generally of free-agent meetings. "Anybody that we would talk to, if they have questions, we answer the questions. That's all you can do as a player — try and explain everything to them. And the rest is not up to us. But like I said, I'm happy with the guys in the room. So it is hard to answer these questions, because I really do think we have enough [talent]."

Yet the Patriots have been abnormally busy in free agency during recent months. They hosted Elliott and receiver DeAndre Hopkins for visits. They have kept tabs on running back Dalvin Cook. Sure, Belichick is often tinkering with the back end of his roster and eyeing a trade or two around the roster cuts to 53. But a big-name signing like Elliott, Hopkins or Cook? That would be a starkly different move for the team.

"You don't typically have players of this caliber available at this time," Patriots director of player personnel Matt Groh said last month. "The contracts that are signed for players right now are nowhere near in the neighborhood of the contracts that these players are generally expected to sign."

Big-name shopping? Well, that's not the way Belichick typically goes, though he has been doing it more often in the post-Tom Brady era.

Bargain-bin shopping? That's Belichick's bread and butter.

Though Elliott, Hopkins and Cook have 12 Pro Bowl seasons between them, they actually represent a bit of both.

Belichick's open pursuit of Hopkins, who ultimately signed with the Titans, and the running backs, who remain unsigned, has mostly felt out of character — even with the asterisk that he can sign them at a discount.

Why DeAndre Hopkins chose Titans over Patriots

So he is changing. But how much? That remains unclear.

Certainly, in 2021, Belichick spent in free agency like we've never seen any team spend before. He likely couldn't have done that with Brady's salary on the books — having a rookie QB made it much easier. Between in-house and out-of-house signings, Belichick spent $193.9 million guaranteed.

The Patriots were quick to strike and set the market with receiver Nelson Agholor (a bit of a bust), edge Matthew Judon (an excellent get) and tight ends Hunter Henry (excellent) and Jonnu Smith (bust). So the signing class was a mixed bag, with other players like cornerback Jalen Mills, receiver Kendrick Bourne and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux still contributing to the team.

That year was an outlier, one that Belichick planned carefully to coincide with a dip in league-wide spending. As usual, he was zigging — by spending big on players he wanted — while the rest of the league zagged — by cutting players because the salary cap went down (due to the pandemic). He set himself up to have unique buying power in a depressed market.

Since then, Belichick has gotten back to his stingy ways. The Patriots rank among the lowest teams in salary cap spending. They are building through the draft, with 17 rookies on the roster, 12 draft picks in 2023 and 50 draft selections over the past five years.

In free agency, Belichick has mostly relied on incentive-laden deals. The Patriots have $8.18 million in likely to be earned incentives for 2023, the most in the NFL. The Jaguars are second with just $4.05, and 19 teams have $1 million or less.

It’s not the typical approach in the NFL these days, even if it’s what Belichick likes to do. And it’s fair to wonder whether that’s why the Patriots didn’t hook Hopkins. They had the same nominal offer on the table as the Titans ($15 million per year) but put more money in incentives, per MMQB’s Albert Breer. Maybe that’s why they haven’t yet landed Elliott. Cook seems to have more interest in the Jets and Dolphins than the Patriots — and that likely traces back to the money.

Players want guaranteed money — or they at least want to know they're entering a system that will ensure they earn the incentives in their contracts. For a guy like Hopkins, the Patriots didn't seem to offer either.

Patriots reportedly took "cautious approach" in pursuit of Hopkins

In the days of Brady, players might have taken the incentive-laden deals because the quarterback would help them get the money. It's not like that anymore. While Jones showed promise in 2021, he struggled in 2022, largely due to the erratic leadership of Matt Patricia, a defensive coach who Belichick inexplicably appointed as the leader of the offense. After the odd events of last season, there must be less optimism surrounding New England's offense. Incentives are only a selling point if there's optimism.

So how have the Patriots been selling themselves?

"I think guys who love football know that this is a place for guys who love football," Groh said.

I'll stop you there, Matt. Every football team is a spot for players who love football. True or not, the Patriots have a reputation for not having fun.

"There are guys out there that like to work, that like to put in the time. I think that they know that the locker room that they're going to be coming into, there's going to be other like-minded guys," Groh said. "If you love football, this is the place to be."

Surely Groh wasn't genuinely delivering his pitch to a handful of media members. But if that's the gist of it, then New England needs to alter it. It's a dated way of thinking, and it centers — tacitly — around the team's perennial contention for the Super Bowl.

Tom Brady is gone, folks. Belichick hasn't been able to get into championship contention on his own. The Patriots can't sell the organization as a militant operation to a group of youngsters to whom the message won't resonate.

That said, two top-tier offensive skill players, free agents who could have signed anywhere, did choose the Patriots this offseason.

Slot receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster picked the Patriots. Tight end Mike Gesicki did the same. New England has had success getting the most out of those two positional types.

Gesicki had plenty of familiarity with new Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien. They both spent time at Penn State, though not at the same time. Gesicki played in similar offenses in Miami with Chad O'Shea, a Belichick disciple, and George Godsey, who came by way of Houston.

"It was a good opportunity," Gesicki said of why he picked New England. "Good quarterback. Great coordinator. Obviously, the history of this franchise with Coach Belichick. And I've played against this organization for five years before that. I know what it's all about, so I was excited to join it."

There was also the matter of Gesicki not being a fit in Miami. Coach Mike McDaniel utilized a scheme that required a lot of blocking by the tight ends and that's not Gesicki's strength. So did the Dolphins use his skills properly?

"Not at all times. But at some points, yeah. Yes and no," Gesicki told FOX Sports on Thursday. "But that's just the league, and you just got to be able to adapt. And when your number is called and when opportunities do present themselves, go make the most of them."

Smith-Schuster said in March that he picked the Patriots because of Belichick. But when asked again last week, Smith-Schuster gave a more expansive answer.

"When they got OB [O'Brien]," Smith-Schuster said. "When they got Bill O'Brien, it was kind of a no-brainer, just because I know how this system is and how it works and how he works the offense. … [For Belichick] to bring OB in and to bring Mike and all these other guys, all these key pieces, it was kind of like, ‘Wow, this is a great fit for me.'"

It's a good thing the Patriots added O'Brien when they did. He was clearly their biggest selling point this offseason. And, again, that's a big shift for the team. Belichick can still bring in players, but not like he used to.

Smith-Schuster has plenty of incentives packed into his three-year, $25.5 million deal, which guarantees him $16 million. In incentives alone, he has the opportunity to earn up to $1.5 million in 2023 and $3 million in 2024 and 2025 (depending upon his yardage totals).

Gesicki has $3.55 million of his deal guaranteed, but $850,000 in likely to be earned incentives (based on game-day roster bonuses) and an additional $4.5 million in production-based and playing time bonuses.

Same old Belichick, right?

Maybe he hasn't changed his approach enough.

Belichick will need an efficient offensive cast to support Jones through these early years of development. And it's not like the Patriots have a lot of time. Including 2023, Jones has two more years on his discounted rookie deal. Then it'll get more complicated, with an extension or a fifth-year option (or a parting of ways). It looked like the Patriots were building in the right direction in 2021, but they derailed themselves in 2022.

It'll be up to Belichick to get them back on track in 2023. Maybe that will include some extra guaranteed money for a running back like Cook or Elliott. Or maybe Belichick will trade for an unhappy (or extension-due) receiver — like Michael Pittman, Brandon Aiyuk or Jerry Jeudy — and pay him big.

Anything to accelerate the Patriots on their path back to relevance.

Bill Belichick under pressure to get Patriots back on track?

In fairness to Belichick, it can't have helped for owner Robert Kraft to suggest that the coach went too hard in free agency in 2021. Then this summer, Kraft pushed back against the narrative that he doesn't want Belichick to spend. There have been mixed messages on whether Belichick has the freedom to spend as he pleases.

So what's next?

It's great that Belichick avoided a full-on rebuild post-Brady, but the 71-year-old coach might be running out of time to get New England back in Super Bowl contention. And you can bet he desperately wants to get back into the championship mix. It must burn him that Brady won a title with the Bucs. Belichick also needs 19 more wins to surpass Don Shula's all-time record of 347 victories.

For 2024, the Patriots lead the NFL in projected cap space with $80 million. If Belichick spends big, then the 2021 season won't just be a blip. It'll be the beginning of his new trend of spending to aid in his pursuit of another Super Bowl. And given that he'll be working with a QB in the final year of his rookie contract, he might just be timing everything perfectly for the team's next title run.

That's when we'll truly see just how much Belichick has changed. For now, he has clearly adjusted his free-agency tactics around Jones. In 2024, we will see if he's working with a completely new strategy.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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