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Do Chiefs consider Patrick Mahomes in NFL Draft?

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 1:37 p.m. ET

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Would the Kansas City Chiefs try to replace Alex Smith with Patrick Mahomes, a signal-caller who might be a project?

After declaring for the NFL Draft on January 3, Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been the subject of much discussion about his fit in the NFL, and for the purposes of this column, the Chiefs. After film review over the past two years, it’s obvious about two things with Mahomes. There’s a lot to work with, and he’s not Alex Smith, both good and bad. Let’s explore.

Measureables

(6-foot-3/ 230 pounds)

Background

After spending his freshman season as the backup to Davis Webb (who is also draft eligible after using a graduate transfer to Cal), Mahomes would win the starting job in 2015, throwing 77 touchdowns and for a staggering 9,705 yards.

Over the previous two seasons, Mahomes, aside from the yards and touchdowns, compiled a combined 64.6 completion percentage while only throwing a combined 25 interceptions over the two seasons. In the Red Raiders game this season against Oklahoma, a game they would lose 66-59, Mahomes would establish new NCAA single game records for passing yards (734) and total offensive yards (819).

Scouting report

Mahomes is a bag of really good and really bad, with limited variance in between. Much like beauty, his talent and potential lies within the eyes of the beholder.

Oct 29, 2016; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Patrick Mahomes II (5) in the pocket in the first quarter against the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Strengths

His arm talent is second-to-none in this draft class. Either sideline, and level of the field, there really is not a throw Mahomes can’t make. For all his arm strength, Mahomes has really good touch and accuracy with the ball, displaying a remarkable ability to drop the ball in to tight windows, over defenders or past an outstretched arm. In Chiefs terms, I’m not sure I’ve seen a quarterback with the combination of arm strength and touch maybe ever. The ball comes out of his hand with ease, delivering a catchable football.

Mahomes also has good athleticism; (spent his freshman year as a relief pitcher with the baseball team) displaying an ability to move both in and out of the pocket. The athleticism and arm strength allow him for him to be able to make any throws on the run that few quarterbacks at any level of football can make.

Also, Mahomes displays a lot of toughness and confidence. Combined with the above mentioned arm strength, Mahomes believes he can make any play, hit any target. With good size and a rather awful offensive line, Mahomes has been hit, and hit a lot. In the past two seasons, he’s been sacked a combined 54 times.

Nov 25, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Patrick Mahomes (5) warms up on the bench during the game against the Baylor Bears at AT&T Stadium. Texas Tech defeated Baylor 54-35. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Weaknesses

While he can make any throw on the field, his arm gets him in trouble because he will try to make any throw on the field. You see Mahomes make some throws and decisions that just leave you dumbfounded as to what he’s doing.

The athleticism, while his legs can help keep plays alive, that aforementioned confidence with the athleticism will lead to plays on film that appear awful reminiscent of family thanksgiving football, with someone running around behind the line of scrimmage waiting for someone to get open. Backyard style quarterbacking rarely works in today’s NFL.

The system the Red Raiders ran, the wide open spread attack, while shares some base similarities to the Chiefs offense, can force defenses into showing blitzes/coverages early or forcing defenses into base level systems. Learning to read defenses, work through progressions and working from under center will all be traits Mahomes will have to develop and work on before any team could rely on him to be an effective quarterback.

Lastly, the biggest issue with Mahomes could come down to how he’s been programmed at Texas Tech. Their offensive line, at least in my opinion, appeared to be awful. The defense left a lot to be desired and often aided the Red Raiders offense stats, as Mahomes and company were forced into a touchdown on every possession mind set, which may explain why Mahomes was willing to take the chances with the football you see him take on film.

He’ll need at least in my opinion, a full season of not being hit when he passes to learn to be comfortable in the pocket, to value ball possession and field position, to understand that he’s not going to throw a touchdown on every snap.

I will note, some people will look at his mechanics as needing work, which to a degree is true of any quarterback in any draft. However, he has learned to be successful with his mechanical quirks and there’s only so much you can do to a players throwing motion before you do more damage then anything else.

NFL comparison

Best Hope: Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

Worst Outcome: Johnny Manizel (On field)

You see a similar mindset to Rivers when he was coming out of North Carolina State, the arm and aggressiveness. Coming out, Rivers had mobility but greatly preferred to throw the ball as opposed to tote it himself. His mechanics were also somewhat criticized though Rivers has had a great deal of success in San Diego with a bad roster.

With his cavalier, gunslinger approach to the position combined with his running around in the pocket, his play at times will look like Manziel coming out. I’m not comparing Mahomes to Manziel off the field, but, in my opinion, there is some concern about his ability to effectively work within a controlled, precise offense the Chiefs run.

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