National Football League

Does Kirk Cousins make Falcons the team to beat in NFC South?

Published Mar. 19, 2024 11:39 a.m. ET

Has the signing of quarterback Kirk Cousins made the Falcons the team to beat in the NFC South?

The Bucs have won the division three years in a row and have brought back their best free agents. Oddsmakers, however, have set Atlanta as a clear-cut favorite to win the division and end a six-year playoff drought. The folks coming up with NFL power rankings are more divided on which team is ahead.

Atlanta had arguably the biggest single splash in free agency last week, landing Cousins from the Vikings on a four-year, $180 million contract that addresses their most glaring weakness. Is that enough to cast the Falcons as favorites? Las Vegas seems to think so.

Online odds have the Falcons as even money or better to win the NFC South. Tampa Bay is in an underdog role at about 3-1. The Saints, who tied for the best record in the division with the Bucs last season, are a close third. Carolina, coming off the worst record in the NFL in 2023, is at best at 10-1 shot to win the division.

Some of this could be the recency of Cousins' signing and a natural tendency for fans to lean on quarterback play in selecting winners. After signing Derek Carr a year ago, the Saints were the presumptive favorite, while the Bucs faced the longest odds due to uncertainty over Baker Mayfield at quarterback.

Several major sites have updated their NFL power rankings this week after the initial wave of free agency, showing a mixed bag of opinions on which is the team to beat but with Atlanta generally making the biggest leap of any team in any division.

The Athletic posted its new rankings Tuesday, and while the Falcons made a huge leap from 29th to 17th, the Bucs are still ahead at 12th, implying the status quo atop the division. USA Today, meanwhile, jumped the Falcons from 24th to 11th, ahead of the Bucs, who are 14th. The Sporting News moved the Falcons from 24th to 13th, ahead of the Bucs at 17th.

Two years ago, the NFC South finished close enough that a single game separated first from last, and in 2023, the Bucs and Saints were both 9-8, while the Falcons finished 7-10 and the Panthers a league-worst 2-15. Of those four, only the Bucs exceeded their over/under win totals from before the season. Tampa was projected to win just 6.5 games.

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One thing working against the Bucs — again — is having to play a first-place schedule. Three games out of 17 each season are determined by a team's position in the standings the year before, and the Bucs won in 2023 despite going 0-3 against the Eagles, Bills and 49ers in those three games.

This year, finishing first for Tampa means facing the 49ers, Ravens and Lions (who all reached their Conference Championship Game). The Saints, finishing second, have a tough three in the Rams, Browns and Packers, while the third-place Falcons have it easier with the Seahawks, Steelers and Vikings.

If Atlanta is going to finish atop the NFC South standings, the easiest path to doing so is simply taking care of business against lesser opponents. The Falcons finished 7-10 last year, but that included a 2-6 record against teams with losing records, including the Panthers (2-15), Cardinals (4-13) and Commanders (4-13).

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Eight of the 12 division games last year were decided by 10 points or fewer, including five by a field goal or less, so success in close games will be crucial. The Bucs led the way with a 3-4 record in one-score games in 2023, ahead of the Falcons (4-6), Saints (3-6) and Panthers (2-6).

Mayfield, for one, said last week he expects the division to be even more competitive and better as a whole, while adding that he still expects the Bucs to set the pace for the other three.

"We've set the standard in this division for a while now, and we're trying to keep it that way," he said.

Greg Auman is FOX Sports' NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.