National Football League

Dolphins-Patriots: Tua Tagovailoa's absence changes the playoff picture

Updated Dec. 29, 2022 5:58 p.m. ET

Just a few weeks ago, the Miami Dolphins seemed like they would waltz into the postseason. They even seemed like contenders to fight with the Buffalo Bills for the division — and the AFC's top seed. Now, Miami is in danger of missing the playoffs. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered his second documented concussion of the season, and he will miss this week's game.

And it comes with terrible timing. The Dolphins need to win both games to keep control of their playoff destiny. If they lose to the Patriots, they can still make the postseason, but they might need some luck in Week 18. As for New England, it must win both games — or it's eliminated. The Patriots are desperate.

Teddy Bridgewater will start Sunday's game, and while this Miami offense has ignited Tua's career, Bridgewater has struggled in it. Bridgewater stepped in after Tua's first documented concussion in Week 4, and the backup completed 60% of his passes for 197 yards with a touchdown and interception in a loss. He later started in Week 6 in a loss to the Vikings, completing 67% of his passes for 329 yards with two touchdowns and interceptions. He also took five sacks. He hasn't been brilliant.

The good news is that Tyreek Hill presents an enormous challenge for New England. Obviously, Hill has been an issue for every defense. But the Patriots defense has major problems at cornerback, with Jalen Mills, Marcus Jones and Jack Jones dealing with injuries. So New England's secondary, which was already lackluster, could be without its top options. And that's against a receiver who has the third-most receiving yards per game (99) against Bill Belichick's defenses through the years, per NFL Network. Hill sits behind only former Colts receiver Marvin Harrison and former Broncos receiver Rod Smith

Miami's offense will need to get going through Hill and running backs Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert. While the Dolphins have two games in the last weeks when they've rushed for 180 or more yards, they have a tendency to stray from the ground game. They might have to remain committed this week.

For New England, they will need to generate turnovers from Bridgewater. The Patriots defense leads the league in touchdowns scored (6), which helps out their putrid offense, a unit that has struggled to generate red-zone trips (2.6 per game (29th in NFL)) and points (21.2 points per game (16th)). Edge Matthew Judon and safety Devin McCourty will be tasked with remaining disciplined to prevent the staggeringly common big plays from the Dolphins. But they'll also have to take some risks to take away the football.

Mac Jones, meanwhile, will need to take advantage of a Dolphins secondary that has struggled all season. Receiver Kendrick Bourne enjoyed a resurgence last week. And given the injury situation at receiver, the Patriots will likely lean on him again against Miami. Jones will need help from Jakobi Meyers and Rhamondre Stevenson to get the offense going. Because, outside those two playmakers, New England has been devoid of consistent production.

Matchup to watch: Bridgewater vs. McCourty

This will be the battle that likely determines the game. New England needs to keep Hill and Jaylen Waddle from scoring long touchdowns. That means McCourty needs to anticipate where Bridgewater wants to put the ball before he does it. And, conversely, Bridgewater needs to stay one step ahead of McCourty, the team's safety net, to access the deep portion of the field.

Key stats: The Dolphins have won four straight games against the Patriots. With a win, it would be their longest win streak against the Pats since winning five in a row from the 1999 season to the 2001 season

The Patriots are 7-1 when allowing 20 points or fewer this season, but 0-7 when allowing 21 or more.

Will Dolphins sit Tua for remainder of season after second stint w/ concussion protocol?

Joy Taylor weighs in Tua Tagovailoa’s second stint in the NFL’s concussion protocol and says the Miami Dolphins should shut him down for the remainder of the season to benefit his health in the long term.

Prediction: With Tua out, the Dolphins won't have the same competence on offense. This is going to be a lower-scoring affair. And given that the Patriots have some experience winning those types of games, I think they'll have the edge. New England can eke out a win with excellent defense and turnover-free offense.

Patriots 17, Dolphins 14

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Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @McKennAnalysis.