National Football League

Even Tom Brady isn't immune to NFL's unpredictable nature

Updated Dec. 21, 2021 11:48 p.m. ET

By Martin Rogers
FOX Sports Columnist

I was in Las Vegas last weekend, which once upon a time might have been the catalyst for a more interesting personal story than this one’s going to be. But there’s a point here, and I’m getting to it. I promise.

No place reverberates to the sound of a monumental National Football League upset quite like Sin City, and the sound of grumbling floated all over The Strip on Sunday as the Detroit Lions toppled the Arizona Cardinals, delivering a smack in the face to logic, the form guide and anyone who reasonably thought they had a surefire parlay booster in Arizona.

If nothing else, that result served as a reminder that nothing can be taken for granted in this NFL season. The team with the worst record can beat one of the best. Guarantees don’t exist, bold predictions last for about as long as it takes to utter them, and no one is immune to the devilish currents of unpredictability coursing through the league.

Not even Tom Brady.

Nick Wright: It's time to revisit the MVP conversation

One of the bigger upsets of Week 15 came from the New Orleans Saints, who held Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to zero points.

As the campaign winds toward its conclusion, one thing seemed truly locked in: Brady was on course to win the MVP award — at the grand age of 44, no less.

He had the résumé across the season. He had the statistics to back it up. He had the requisite storyline — he’s old, he’s still great, he’s the reigning Super Bowl champion — and he and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers had seemingly few obstacles across a weak closing schedule.

Then Sunday happened and confirmed that nothing is etched in stone. Indeed, Tampa Bay suffered such an overwhelming meltdown against the New Orleans Saints that Vegas has since done a flip on Brady’s prospects of being crowned football’s best player this season.

According to FOX Bet, as of early Tuesday, Brady (+170) is now no better than second-favorite for the award, having been supplanted by Aaron Rodgers (+130). And he has precious little time remaining in which to make up ground.

"We know, quite well, this is in large part a narrative-based award, a momentum-based award," FS1’s Nick Wright said on "First Things First." "Can we all agree Brady picked the worst time for his worst game? All shutouts or near shutouts are not created equal. Brady was the overwhelming favorite going into the game. Rodgers clearly passed him."

Against a Saints team that had only one win (over the New York Jets) in nearly two months, Brady was shut out at home for the first time in his career, as the Bucs crashed to a dispiriting 9-0 loss. It was extraordinarily bad, and the optics were miserable.

Time and again, Brady got his hands on the ball knowing that just one good drive would be enough to put his team firmly in the game. He never got it done.

Frustrated beyond belief, Brady went over to the Saints sideline and appeared to yell an obscenity. He also hurled a tablet to the ground in anger as he sat on the bench.

"We didn’t execute great, obviously," he said afterward. "Just a tough night. We didn’t do much of anything right. We’ve got to get a lot better. We just didn’t play well enough. If you don’t score points, you’re not going to win."

Rodgers also has a stinker of a game on his season résumé, and it was also against the Saints. But that was long enough ago — way back in Week 1 — that it will be easier for MVP voters to overlook.

In any body-of-work-type award, the timing of a certain performance shouldn’t, in theory, make any difference. But human nature dictates otherwise, and "What have you done for me lately?" certainly comes into play.

When Brady was in the pole position, the Bucs' soft closing matchups — two games against the Carolina Panthers and one against the Jets — looked like a potential plus, with fewer opportunities for a slip. Now, the schedule could be a negative, with no apparent chances left for a defining win in a critical game.

If Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, now sitting at 11-3, do not slip and finish as the NFC’s top seed, it might stand to reason that the MVP nod goes in the direction of Lambeau.

Colin Cowherd: 'This is a more real version of Brady'

Colin Cowherd talks Tom Brady's reaction after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were shut out by the New Orleans Saints 9-0.

From Brady’s perspective, winning the MVP would be a nice bonus but not something that’s ultimately going to dictate how his campaign is viewed. He judges himself on championships, and there is some quirky anti-symmetry at play there, too.

No MVP has won the Super Bowl in the same season since Kurt Warner did it in 1999. The previous nine times the MVP has played in the Super Bowl, his team has lost, a list that includes Brady in 2007 and 2017.

That’s an unexpected stat, but there are a lot of unexpected things going on these days, and it’s all a bit puzzling. Vegas doesn’t know what to make of it, and neither do those of us who follow the NFL religiously and thought that meant we knew what was up.

Heck, if even Tom Brady (in his 22nd season) isn’t immune to a shocking setback he never saw coming, what chance do the rest of us have of figuring out what comes next?

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider Newsletter. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.