Even with a top draft pick, Giants might not be ready to move on from Daniel Jones
It's all going wrong for the New York Giants — again. They're down to their third-string quarterback. Frustrations are boiling over on the sidelines. It's clear their coach has no answers and there might be no way out of this downward spiral. It seems likely they won't win another game.
The bright side of that is they look like a lock to end up with one of the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, where they can grab one of the nation's top quarterback prospects.
That's if they want to draft one of them. Don't assume that they will.
While taking USC's Caleb Williams or North Carolina's Drake Maye with one of the top two picks might seem like a no-brainer for the 2-8 Giants right now — especially with Daniel Jones' health issues — it's far from guaranteed that the Giants would actually do it. According to multiple sources, including one inside the Giants, some key people in the organization still have faith in Jones and believe their 26-year-old franchise quarterback can still be their long-term answer.
In other words, even if they end up drafting 1 or 2, they might still pass on taking a replacement and choose to continue building around Jones instead.
"There's a long way to go (until the draft)," said the team source. "But I don't think anyone has given up on him yet."
That's not to suggest they won't replace Jones, even though the draft will come less than 14 months after the Giants gave him a four-year, $160 million contract with $81 million guaranteed. They might still do it. In fact, their intention, the team source said, is to prepare as if they will. General manager Joe Schoen has already seen both Maye and Williams in person — though his trip to see Maye came before the Giants' season even started. And the expectation is that Schoen, his top lieutenants and a small army of Giants scouts will stay focused on the top quarterbacks for the rest of the college season, too.
But they are a long way away from any final decision, and the source acknowledged it might be premature for them to completely give up on Jones after watching him in just six starts this season — including three without running back Saquon Barkley, four without left tackle Andrew Thomas, and behind a disastrous offensive line that got him sacked a ridiculous 30 times.
"It's almost an unfair evaluation," said an NFC scout who has watched the Giants this season. "He was getting battered. He had no time to run an offense before the rush was in his face. He didn't look good. I'm not excusing him. But he didn't have much of a chance.
"And I think they know that."
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They do, the team source said. And they also know that thrusting a rookie quarterback into that situation, even if he's given some time to learn behind Jones, likely wouldn't change those results — at least not at first. And it might not change things all if either Williams or Maye — or whatever top quarterback the Giants fall in love with — doesn't turn out to be a legitimate franchise quarterback. That's a big risk, because for every C.J. Stroud — who is having an all-time great rookie season in Houston — there is a Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, or even a Bryce Young, who was drafted No. 1 overall last April, but has the Panthers 1-8 and competing for the first overall pick again (which Chicago owns as a result of trading up for Young).
And that's another reason the Giants might choose to build around Jones, rather than replace him. Turning to a rookie quarterback almost always means a step back for an organization — sometimes a significant and lengthy one. And after this disastrous season, with owners who have fired four coaches and two general managers in the last eight years, many around the NFL believe a step backward is something that Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll might not be able to afford.
If that's their assessment of the situation too, then it might make more sense to trade down from one of the top two spots for a bounty of draft picks that would help them build the team around their current quarterback. They might be able to do that and still end up with Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who would instantly become the best receiver Jones has ever had. Or they could add one of a number of top tackles or guards who could help strengthen their offensive line.
But as tempting as that possibility could be, the team source acknowledged that in the end, the Giants might have no choice. The wild card in this decision is Jones' health. He will soon have surgery to repair a torn ACL and there is no guarantee that he'll be ready for the start of next season — or that he'll ever be the same dangerous, mobile quarterback that he was before. He also has now suffered two neck injuries in the last three seasons that have cost him a total of nine games. If Giants' doctors determine he's at risk of more neck injuries in the future, the Giants might have to move on to someone else.
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Either way, it's a big risk. If the Giants keep building with Jones, they're taking a chance that he stays healthy and can still become the player they thought he was when they re-signed him last March. If they move on, they're taking a chance that Williams or Maye will eventually be better, and that it won't take them very long to prove it.
And complicating all of that is Jones' contract. He's guaranteed $36 million in 2024. The Giants do have a way out of his contract after that — though it's an expensive "out" that would leave them with $22.2 million in "dead money" on their salary cap books. But they're stuck with him for at least one more season, which means that if they draft a quarterback, the rookie will have at least one uncomfortable season of playing with the quarterback he was drafted to replace.
Jones, of course, did that with Eli Manning in 2019. Manning, though, was 38 years old at the time.
But the Giants won't care if Jones is uncomfortable if they decide it's time to move on, and that they can't pass on what they hope is a rare opportunity to draft a potential franchise quarterback at the top of a draft. Assuming they get there — and it sure looks like they will — they'll have a little more than five months to make a choice that will determine the future of Schoen, Daboll and at least the short-term future of the franchise.
And no matter what it looks like from the outside, it's not an easy decision — nor is it one they've already made.
Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
