National Football League

Examining what’s next for the Patriots with and without Bill Belichick

Updated Dec. 19, 2023 10:54 p.m. ET

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Henry McKenna

AFC East Reporter

The end of the New England Patriots' 27-17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday felt like a cryptic message about Bill Belichick's future.

Will the Patriots fire (or, euphemistically, part ways with) the greatest coach of all time?

The answer grew more complicated in Week 15.

Even with the game still in reach, Belichick elected to punt in the fourth quarter despite opportunities to go for it on fourth-and-3 (down 17 points with 14 minutes left in the game) and fourth-and-4 (still down 17 with nine minutes left). In the final four minutes, the Patriots were backed up against their own end zone but elected to run the ball on one of their four downs. They didn't call a timeout afterward. 

Every one of these decisions felt like a white flag. Game over.

If Belichick were still the mastermind fresh off his endless list of Super Bowl appearances, I might give him some credit. Maybe Belichick thought his defense had a better chance of scoring than his offense, which was why the Patriots were OK punting. Let the defense try to put up some points against a sloppy Patrick Mahomes. (And it actually worked, with the Patriots intercepting Mahomes in the fourth quarter and getting the offense into good enough field position to score a touchdown.) It's crazy to think Belichick actually saw his defense as more competent at scoring than the offense — but have you seen the offense? It does make a Belichickian sort of sense.

But that may be giving too much credit to Belichick, who has not looked like the mastermind that he once was. No, this team is 3-11, and that brutal record, second-worst in the NFL, is due almost entirely to decisions made by — who else? — Belichick. Poor drafts, poor free-agency decisions, poor personnel management and poor in-game management. It all comes back to Belichick. It adds up (so far) to 11 losses.

The end of the Chiefs game featured such bad game management that I legitimately began to wonder if Belichick was intentionally losing. If he was, it would be the first time in his career he'd allow himself to tank. 

If he's tanking, he would likely be doing so with the knowledge that he'll benefit from the losses. Meaning: If Belichick was going to tank, he would probably need assurances that owner Robert Kraft was not going to fire him. Otherwise, the Patriots coach would want to put his best foot forward in attracting interest from other teams around the NFL. 

Because Belichick likely wants to keep coaching, even if the Patriots don't want him to keep coaching for them.

Dave Helman and Peter Schrager discuss Bill Belichick's future

This offseason feels like a pivot point for New England. If the Patriots want to make a change, they need to do it now. Why? Well, they are likely to have the second overall pick in April's draft, where they can select one of the top quarterbacks, and Kraft would like that QB to be the face of the franchise for years to come. And then there's the free agency money. New England is projected for around $75 in cap space. But remember: Those are Kraft's dollars. He wants to know the money will be spent wisely.

The Patriots could get right back into playoff contention next year. Or, at least, they could accelerate their rebuild with a terrific offseason. They have the ammunition. But missteps this offseason could also cast the Patriots out of the hunt for years to come. Pick the wrong QB? You'll be right back at the bottom of the league and top of the draft for the next few years. Pick the wrong free agents? Well, look at the 2023 Patriots, who are — among other things — the product of bad free agency spending in 2021.

So let's examine the two directions the situation can go from here.

The Patriots retain Belichick

Prior to this week, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport indicated that Kraft has yet to make a decision on whether he will keep Belichick. That's good news for those hoping Belichick will stay in New England. Just a few days earlier, NBC Boston's Tom Curran reported that Kraft made up his mind after the Patriots loss to the Colts in Germany — a game that had special importance to New England's owner because it was his lifelong dream to see his team play (and win) abroad. And while the game seemed winnable, the Patriots lost.

But if Rapoport's report is true or — as I indicated — Kraft has even gone so far as to assure Belichick that he is going to stay, then we might still see movement on the Patriots' staff.

The question at the heart of Belichick staying would be whether Kraft wants to intervene. Belichick has, for quite some time, had full autonomy. And he almost never changes his ways.

For example, if Kraft wanted Belichick to remain coach but give up the GM role, then it's likely Belichick would ask to leave. But what about a smaller move? The Patriots director of player personnel Matt Groh has appeared beyond his depth, with the team's drafts and free agency forays looking quite ugly. The team might replace him. While Belichick never fills big roles from out of house, Kraft might push for a fresh-faced high-ranking executive to help support Belichick's GM work. And then again, if Kraft is intervening, would that flare tensions between him and Belichick?

(Yes, almost certainly.)

Kraft would have to continue — and maybe even double down — on the Belichick experience.

The case for more of the Belichick experience is really simple. We know what Belichick offers. And that's Super Bowl success.

Kraft could look at the other candidates and come back to Belichick. There's Jerod Mayo — who will probably be the successor in a few years anyway — or Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. (There are plenty of other candidates out there, but they represent the two types New England could pursue. And we'll get back to this idea in the next section.) Either option is terrific. But neither option provides any more certainty than Belichick does.

Patriots HC Bill Belichick's time in New England running out?

Yes, most recently, trusting Belichick has been messy. But looking back at the Tom Brady era, you'll see an extremely competent coach. And while the Patriots won't find Brady in the draft, they might find a special quarterback at No. 2 overall. And that could, in some ways, bring the Patriots back to 2001, when Belichick's defense supported a young, competent quarterback. Or, more recently, it could bring New England back to 2020, when New England supported Mac Jones.

Jones and Bailey Zappe don't look great now, in part because they're not game-changers and in part because they're surrounded by an awful offensive cast. But Belichick does have a knack for identifying quarterback talent. There's Brady, of course. But there have also been competent QBs like Matt Cassel, Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett. And while they are backup-caliber quarterbacks, Belichick did a nice job drafting them in mid-rounds and developing them into usable players. 

Now, when it comes to truly elite QB play, Brady is still Belichick's only example. But it's the best example in the history of the league. So let's give the guy credit. It's possible, with the No. 2 overall pick, that Belichick could do wonders with a player like Drake Maye or Caleb Williams.

So Kraft could keep Belichick around to get the Patriots back in playoff contention for 2024 after a massive investment in the team (and in Belichick's vision) this offseason. If it goes well, the Patriots probably keep Mayo around long enough to take over. If it doesn't go well, the Patriots can turn things over to Mayo whenever the train goes off the rails (again).

But if they're bracing for things to go wrong, then why not get ahead of it. Why not move to Mayo (or an external candidate) in January? Let's explore that.

The Patriots part ways with Belichick

As good as Belichick once was, he is no longer the same guy.

Belichick's way of doing things has come back to bite him. Letting go of players a year too early rather than a year too late? Well, Brady won a Super Bowl without Belichick. And then there's the element of building up players from undrafted status only to let them make big money elsewhere and maybe even find their way back to New England. It worked with Patrick Chung, Jamie Collins, Malcolm Butler and J.C. Jackson. But with Jakobi Meyers? It has been a brutal whiff, particularly when comparing Meyers to his replacement, JuJu Smith-Schuster. 

Belichick has been loyal to his staffers, rewarding them with big roles in which they often thrive. But when looking at the collapse of this team's offense, you can point back to Belichick's decision to replace Josh McDaniels with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge — two coaches with little experience working on the offensive side of the ball. It was a screw-you-I'll-do-what-I-want type of decision that we'd normally tout as brilliant — if it had worked. But it was an abject disaster.

And there have been a lot of those weird decisions that have blown up. Look at the 2022 NFL Draft: New England's picks in the top four rounds (Cole Strange, Tyquan Thornton, Marcus Jones, Jack Jones, Pierre Strong, Bailey Zappe) have been rough. Strange and Marcus Jones are the only ones who are showing any signs of potential (but both are currently on IR). The team's first-round pick, Strange was the player Rams GM Les Snead thought would be available in the fourth round. Thornton, a second-rounder, didn't impress many draft analysts and was ranked outside Daniel Jeremiah's top 150. The Patriots looked like they reached, and unlike in past years (like when they reached for Devin McCourty and Logan Ryan and so many others), it appears that they did indeed get bad value.

And then there's the quarterback.

Belichick seems to have a type at the position (as we alluded to). He gravitates toward players who profile a bit like the modern NFL backup: smart, pocket-based, competent distributor. Jones and Zappe were relatively conservative choices in the draft — low risk, low reward. (Compare taking Jones at No. 15 to trading up for Justin Fields, for example.) It feels outdated in an NFL in which Josh Allen (mobile/creative), Trevor Lawrence (elite arm) and Mahomes (creative/mobile and elite arm) are among the best in the league. A quarterback's brain can't be his only redeeming quality anymore.

Even Belichick's conservative in-game management seems outdated, as exhibited in the Chiefs game. The Patriots don't often go for it when the analytics say they should.

It's not just the team's record that speaks to the NFL passing Belichick by. It's … everything.

That's what makes Kraft firing Belichick most likely. 

It's not just that Belichick is objectively failing for New England. It's that Belichick might like the opportunity to go somewhere else. Brady, after all, got the opportunity to improve his legacy with a title elsewhere. 

Why not Belichick? 

If he landed with the Chargers, for example, then maybe he can get back to the playoffs quickly, which would also likely help him to attain the record for all-time wins. That might tempt Belichick to leave New England quietly.

Of course, the Chargers might go with an offensive-minded coach. That's when the situation gets trickier for Belichick. Pickings might get slim. Perhaps a team like Buffalo, which was expected to make the playoffs but might not, could have a surprising vacancy at head coach. But if not, Belichick might have to settle for a team like the Washington Commanders. 

Nick Wright picks best landing spot for Patriots HC Bill Belichick

If he really doesn't like the options, he could take a year away — perhaps "retiring" like Sean Payton did — before looking at the options in 2025. But for a guy like Belichick, whose life has been the game, that's hard to imagine. Plus, he's 71 years old.

As for the Patriots, I've mentioned the leading internal candidate to replace Belichick, Mayo, and a potential top candidate for a change of scenery, Johnson. But if the Chargers are enticing enough for Belichick, you can bet they're enticing enough for Johnson. New England might have a lot of spending power in free agency and the draft, but it also doesn't have much to offer an offensive coach in on-roster talent. So that would be a factor in attempting to convince a hot offensive coach like Johnson. Maybe he likes the idea of getting to stock the offensive side of the ball. Maybe he doesn't. 

If the Patriots don't hire the guy they know and like (Mayo) because there's too much overlap with Belichick, I'd be willing to bet they go the opposite direction: a hot young offensive coach to pair with their young QB.

But, if Belichick is out, the Patriots don't just have to hire a coach. They'll have to hire a GM, too. Browns assistant GM Glenn Cook, 49ers assistant GM Adam Peters and Colts assistant GM Ed Dodds could all appeal to New England.

It's hard to imagine the Patriots without Belichick. But the same was true of Brady. If the team wants to make a move, now is an excellent moment to set up the next coach for success. And as the losses rack up for Belichick, his credibility continues to fade.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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Henry McKenna