Fantasy Football Championships: Starts, Sits, and Sleepers
Dec 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks (10) carries the ball after a catch for a touchdown in the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Brandin Cooks led the Saints to a win and fantasy football owners to the Championship Round with his 37.6 points in Week 15. Here your championship week starts, sits, and sleepers.
Cooks hasn’t been the most reliable fantasy football player this season, but if you had him in for last week’s games, you’re surely happy with what he was able to do in a victory against the Arizona Cardinals.
It’s not always the top scorer for the year who brings home the Championship in league’s everywhere. This week, every player needs to produce in order to secure the last and final victory for their owner.
Who are the names you should lean on to get the title? For the final time in 2016, let’s take a look.
Dec 11, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
QUARTERBACKS
START – Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings – Saturday, December 24th @ 1:00 PM EST
Go with who got you here. If you’ve got Aaron Rodgers on your roster then you’ve got the top scoring quarterback in all of fantasy football in 2016.
Sure he’s going up against the Minnesota Vikings defense, but while they’ve only surrendered an average of 13.8 points per game to QBs, Rodgers and company have been tearing up the NFL as they look to secure the NFC North division title.
He’s top-10 in yards passing, touchdowns thrown and bottom ten in interceptions this season.
Don’t get cold feet when it matters most, and trust Rodgers to bring it home.
START – Tom Brady, New England Patriots
New England Patriots vs New York Jets – Saturday, December 24th @ 1:00 PM EST
Who else would you look for when you need to win the big one than Tom Brady?
When this season is said and done Brady will rank outside of the top-12 amongst fantasy quarterbacks, but we all know this is due to the four games he missed at the beginning of the year.
Averaging 21.2 points per week he’s tied with the third highest average in his position.
Going against the New York Jets this holiday weekend is about as perfect as it can get for those of you who stashed Brady for just this situation.
Gang-Green has all but quit and this fan base is dreaming of the draft and hoping there’s a quarterback in their near future.
Brady was limited in practice this week, but I don’t see how he would end up missing this late season game. Still keep an eye out just in case.
SIT – Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos – Saturday, December 24th @ 8:30 PM EST
If you want to talk fantasy inconsistency, let’s talk Alex Smith of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Five times this quarterback has thrown for 250-yards or more. Four times he hasn’t even hit the 200-yard mark.
He’s been held out of the endzone three times this season and was held in check in week 12 against the very Broncos defense he’ll be facing this week.
If you somehow made it to the final week with this man as your quarterback, then I commend you on your other roster pieces because they must be amazing.
If you’re a daily fantasy sports (DFS) enthusiast, invest your salary dollars elsewhere for a big win this Christmas.
SIT – Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens – Saturday, December 24th @ 4:30 PM EST
“Big-Ben” Roethlisberger is fantasy’s 13th ranked quarterback placing him just outside the consistently good when it comes to starting QBs.
The Baltimore Ravens are the NFL’s seventh-best defense when it comes to keeping Roethlisberger and his position-peers off the score board.
When these two foes last saw each other the Steelers gunslinger passed for 264-yards and one touchdown. His fantasy numbers were boosted by a rushing touchdown, which stands as his only one on the ground this season.
Dec 18, 2016; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor (5) during the game against the Cleveland Browns at New Era Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
Even with the rushing score, Roethlisberger barely broke into the top-12 in the last game against the Ravens, don’t expect much more this weekend either.
SLEEPER – Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins – Saturday, December 24th @ 1:00 PM EST
Tyrod Taylor may not be the first quarterback who pops into your head when you think fantasy studs, but his 20 touchdowns (14 passing, 6 rushing) have helped him crack the rankings as a top-10 QB this season.
For the Dolphins, some of the quarterbacks who have been able to find fantasy success against them have been mobile.
Marcus Mariota was able to find the endzone four times in Week 5 against Miami, and Taylor himself had two scores back in Week 7.
DFS players would be smart to consider this game and this player when looking to save some space for other bigger match-ups.
SLEEPER – Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons – Saturday, December 24th @ 1:00 PM EST
You’d be hard-pressed to find anybody associated with the Panthers who doesn’t feel tragically let down by the way this season has gone, both real and fantasy.
Cam Newton has gone from MVP to afterthought unless he’s being ridiculed for many of the things which made him successful in 2015.
Yet, here we are with another week to play and Newton has his team facing the Falcons looking to play spoiler as Atlanta hopes to clinch the division with a win.
Newton’s fall from grace has not been pretty, but his drop in salary could net a beautiful return in DFS as he faces a defense which is the friendliest quarterback unit in all fantasy football.
Dec 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson (31) runs the ball in the second half against the New Orleans Saints at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Saints defeated the Cardinals 48-41. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
RUNNING BACKS
START – David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks – Saturday, December 24th @ 4:25 PM EST
You may notice a trend this week. David Johnson is the top fantasy running back, and he has a tough defensive match-up going against the Seahawks in Week 16.
Go with him anyway. This young man has found yards hard to come by as of late, but he’s still finding the endzone and has four touchdowns in his last three games as a result.
Sure, Seattle has the best rush defense in fantasy football, but can you really bet against Johnson at this point?
START – Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens – Saturday, December 24th @ 4:30 PM EST
More from The Pewter Plank
Relax Steelers fans, nobody is saying your team will lose to the Ravens, although I wouldn’t call a
Pittsburgh win a foregone conclusion though.
In fantasy terms, Le’Veon Bell is going to be an expensive play, but worth it this weekend as Baltimore is just as ineffective against running backs as they are effective against quarterbacks.
Bell is the life-blood of this offense and should find his sixth straight 100-yard game coming here while adding to his seven scores this season.
SIT – Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints – Saturday, December 24th @ 4:25 PM EST
Hate to do it, and anyone who knows me personally knows just how big a supporter I am of Doug Martin, but I have to call it as I see it with this one.
Just two weeks ago the Buccaneers’ starting running back netted just 66-yards on 23 carries. He did find the endzone which saved him from another single digit fantasy week, but it didn’t exactly put him atop the rankings.
After deciding to sit Jacquizz Rodgers in favor of Charles Sims and Peyton Barber during last week’s loss to the Cowboys, I have to think Dirk Koetter will bring “Quizz” back for this weekend’s crucial contest.
Seeing Rodgers come back will eat into Martin’s touches, making him even more of a touchdown dependent play than normal.
SIT – Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Saturday, December 24th @ 4:25 PM EST
Ok, so the Saints running back isn’t exactly a hot start pick this weekend either.
The Buccaneers have given up 100-yards rushing to a single player just twice this season, and two weeks ago Ingram came up 86-yards shy of being player number three.
Expect more Tim Hightower in this match-up as he had significantly better runs against the Bucs defense – although he’s no fantasy gem himself this weekend.
Nov 27, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi (23) is introduced before a game against San Francisco 49ers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
SLEEPER – Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills – Saturday, December 24th @ 1:00 PM EST
Jay Ajayi burst onto the fantasy scene and has since come down to earth by rushing for no more than 79-yards in a single game since his three game streak was ended.
His second performance in the surprise outburst came against the Buffalo Bills in Week 7 when Ajayi racked up 214-yards and a score against Rex Ryan’s defense.
Don’t expect 200+ here, but if the young running back can find his real-life mojo against this defense again, his fantasy production will bring big returns on his DFS salary hit.
SLEEPER – Ronnie Hillman, San Diego Chargers
San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns – Saturday, December 24th @ 1:00 PM EST
Ronnie Hillman was out-touched by Kenneth Farrow, but the veteran running back was the more effective of the duo and should see an uptick in carries following his Week 15 performance.
For fantasy players, this is a deep-deep sleeper just as Farrow was a week ago. Big reward potential with a chance to save big-time on salary dollars.
Making this more attractive is the fact Cleveland is the friendliest defense against running backs this season and has allowed five individual 100-yard rushers while many others have amassed impressive statistical days outside of ground production.
This play is more about the Browns defense than it is Hillman, but it’s an interesting option nevertheless.
Dec 18, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) runs a route against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
WIDE RECEIVERS
START – Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints – Saturday, December 24th @ 4:25 PM EST
Mike Evans has gone three games without scoring a touchdown and fantasy owners have to be biting their nails hoping to see the streak end this weekend.
Last time the Buccaneers and Saints faced off Evans brought in four catches for 42-yards, and came up short in fantasy where his team came out on top in real-life.
Delvin Breaux is going to miss this game, and the New Orleans secondary is already missing Kenny Vaccaro who is serving a four-game suspension.
Evans is a big factor in this divisional match-up, and if the Bucs are going to win he’s going to have to score.
START – Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers – Saturday, December 24th @ 1:00 PM EST
Julio Jones should be coming back after missing the last two games with an injury, and he’ll be facing the same Panthers secondary he abused for 300-yards and a score in Week 4 of the 2016 season.
Fantasy owners will be more than happy to see Jones back on the field, and the Carolina secondary should be more than nervous as the Falcons look to lock up the NFC South.
SIT – Rishard Matthews, Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Saturday, December 24th @ 1:00 PM EST
Jacksonville’s struggles have been largely offensive not defensive. In the same thread, the Titans offense has been more effective than perhaps anyone could have predicted while placing themselves in position to win the AFC South.
In order to grab a divisional crown and host a playoff game, Tennessee needs to win-out, so it’s no surprise Rishard Matthews is being looked at by many DFS players as he leads his team in targets with 86.
However, as attractive as it is to take advantage of teams on the decline, it’s important to realize how effective the Jaguars defense has been while holding opposing receivers to just 19.7 points per game on average.
SIT – DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals – Saturday, December 24th @ 8:25 PM EST
Pulling the plug on Brock Osweiler feels like a move by a desperate coach looking to save his job. Problem with those moves is they affect everyone on the field.
DeAndre Hopkins had eight catches for 87-yards in Tom Savage’s 2016 debut as the Texans starter, but no score keeps him at four touchdowns on the year with no additional scores on the horizon.
Defenses know the key to beating Houston is containing Hopkins, and they’ve done so very successfully to this point.
Dec 4, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Washington Redskins wide receiver Jamison Crowder (80) against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals defeated the Redskins 31-23. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The Bengals will be all over this star receiver, which will limit his role in the Texans’ success and your fantasy chances.
SLEEPER – Jamison Crowder, Washington Redskins
Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears – Saturday, December 24th @ 1:00 PM EST
Jamison Crowder has crawled his way into WR2 conversation and should be in the conversation to be drafted way too high next season.
Before we get to future fantasy drafts though, let’s close this year out.
Going up against the Chicago Bears, Crowder and his fellow receivers have a match-up against the sixth-worst defense against fantasy WRs this season.
Allowing more than 25-points per game on average, Chicago is where receivers go to flourish, and Crowder’s special teams potential is just a bonus.
SLEEPER – Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers – Saturday, December 24th @ 1:00 PM EST
While Green Bay has been on a four-game winning streak, it hasn’t always been thanks to their defense.
If Minnesota has any hopes of toping the Packers on their way to an NFC North title they’ll have to get Stefon Diggs involved early and often.
With Adrian Peterson’s return hampered by the news he’ll again be out for the Week 16 match-up, Diggs himself is questionable to play and should be monitored closely before kickoff.
If he’s a go, he could be a big part of this game – win or lose – and could be a big part of your DFS success this weekend.
Dec 18, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans tight end Ryan Griffin (84) reacts after a play during the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
TIGHT ENDS
START – Ryan Griffin, Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans – Saturday, December 24th @ 8:25 PM EST
Ryan Griffin matched his season and career highs with eight catches in Week 15’s debut of the Tom Savage era in Houston, and he’ll look to better it with dome football in December.
While he didn’t find the endzone, there’s no denying the targets a tight end tends to get from young and inexperienced quarterbacks.
Savage will need his tight end this week like he did last week, and with this many chances to find the endzone, one score will give you a nice return in DFS.
SIT – Jeff Heuerman, Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs – Saturday, December 24th @ 8:30 PM EST
Similar to the situation in Houston, a tight end can be a young quarterback’s best friend.
While Trevor Siemian hasn’t had to rely on Broncos tight ends this season as much as some other QBs have, Jeff Heuerman’s 40-yard performance a week ago on just two catches shows the potential he had coming out of Ohio State two years ago.
While Denver will need to spread the ball to beat the Chiefs in Week 16 I wouldn’t quite bet on the low costing tight end just yet, as his chemistry with Siemian is still in question, and there isn’t enough consistency to bet on at this time.
SLEEPER – Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints – Saturday, December 24th @ 4:25 PM EST
Pro Bowl snubs have a way of striking back with a vengeance to show everyone just why they should have been included in the post-season party of all-stars.
Cameron Brate may only have the Buccaneers’ fanbase shouting his snub-status from the rafters, but after seven touchdown catches by the second-year tight end it’s easy to see why.
Brate has had at least four catches in seven of the last eight games, and he should see plenty of attention when the Bucs take on the New Orleans Saints with their playoff hopes on the line.
What makes him a sleeper is his price tag. Carrying one of the ten highest tight end price tags means he’ll need to produce at least a touchdown to justify the cost, but he should get more than a few chances to do just that this weekend on the road.
Dec 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick during the second half against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field. The Patriots won 16-3. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
START – New England Patriots D/ST
New England Patriots vs New York Jets – Saturday, December 24th @ 1:00 PM EST
The New England Patriots boast a top-5 fantasy defense / special teams unit, and this week they face a New York Jets team which is just ready for the off-season to begin.
News that head coach Todd Bowles will not be joining the team this weekend after being hospitalized shortly before the weekend could boost the team to win one for their coach.
Instead, this feels like just one more blow to a franchise already weakened, and it doesn’t look good for the rest of the playing time they have in front of them.
SIT – Denver Broncos D/ST
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs – Saturday, December 24th @ 8:30 PM EST
The last time the Broncos and Chiefs clashed, Denver’s D/ST amassed just nine fantasy points in an overtime loss which significantly hindered their fading playoff chances.
That time they were at home, this time they’re on the road. While every new weekend provides a new chance for a proud defense to come up big, the DFS price tag just isn’t worth the risk on a unit which has already been abused by this offense recently.
SLEEPER – Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs – Saturday, December 24th @ 8:30 PM EST
The Chiefs defense isn’t completely healthy, but they’re certainly a lot healthier than they were the last time this team faced the Broncos.
Trevor Siemian is a young quarterback, and make no mistake about it, Kansas City is playing playoff football.
At least two turnovers should be on the horizon here, and a defensive score isn’t out of the question while Tyreek Hill is always a threat in special teams.
WEEK 16 RECAP
Let’s Recap our selections for this weekends’ match-ups…
START:
QB, Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
QB, Tom Brady, New England Patriots
RB, David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
RB, Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
WR, Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR, Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
TE, Ryan Griffin, Houston Texans
Dec 4, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) runs after a catch against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half at the Georgia Dome. The Chiefs defeated the Falcons 29-28. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
D/ST, New England Patriots
SIT:
QB, Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
QB, Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
RB, Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RB, Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
WR, Rishard Matthews, Tennessee Titans
WR, DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
TE, Jeff Heuerman, Denver Broncos
D/ST, Denver Broncos
SLEEPERS:
QB, Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills
QB, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
RB, Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins
RB, Ronnie Hillman, San Diego Chargers
WR, Jamison Crowder, Washington Redskins
WR, Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings
TE, Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
D/ST, Kansas City Chiefs
DAILY LINEUPS
Playing daily fantasy football games are not as simple as plug and play. It’s a delicate balance of fiscal responsibility and talent management. Here we provide a couple of options which should prove affordable and full of possibilities.
The Pewter Projection
Your weekly lineup provided by the analysis and projections The Pewter Plank brings you every week.
Dec 11, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cameron Brate (84) runs with the ball against the New Orleans Saints during the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
QB – Cam Newton vs Atlanta Falcons
RB – Le’Veon Bell vs Baltimore Ravens
RB – Jay Ajayi @ Buffalo Bills
WR – Mike Evans @ New Orleans Saints
WR – Stefon Diggs @ Green Bay Packers
WR – Jamison Crowder @ Chicago Bears
TE – Cameron Brate @ New Orleans Saints
K – Ryan Succop @ Jacksonville Jaguars
D/ST – Kansas City Chiefs D/ST vs Denver Broncos
So, there we have it. Week 16 NFL action has already begun with the Eagles upsetting the New York Giants to give the Dallas Cowboys the NFC East crown.
Send your questions, comments and individual analysis to our official Twitter feed, to any of our contributors or experts. We can’t get to them all of course, but we’ll get to as many as we can each week.
Which of our starters will hit pay-dirt for your fantasy football team, which of our sits will bust through the doubt and put up top numbers anyway, and which of our sleepers will give a burst to your daily fantasy lineups? It’s been a pleasure talking fantasy football with you all this season. Good luck in the Championship round and see you next season!
