Who should you start and who should you sit at each position in fantasy football Week 16 in the 2016 NFL season?
It’s been quite the journey but we are finally here. We are in the championship round of the fantasy football season. In a matter of days, half of you will shower yourselves in champagne as you send out braggadocios text messages to the other members of your league. The other half will end up staring at the final score and curse the names of the players who fell short of expectations.
God, isn’t fantasy football great?
If you made it this far, it’s far to say you know what you are doing and that’s why I’m not going to throw a bunch of tips in your direction. You don’t need it. The only recommendation I do have is to go with your gut and live with the results. The last thing you want to see is a player you really wanted to start go off on your bench because the “experts” told you not to start him.
In case you didn’t know, Christmas is this Sunday. For that reason, there are 12 games on Saturday and only two on Sunday. Make sure you know this as you set your lineup for this final week.
This is Fantasy Football: Start/Sit, Week 16 Edition.
Dec 19, 2016; Landover, MD, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) celebrates after throwing a touchdown pass to Panthers wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. (not pictured) against the Washington Redskins in the first quarter at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Quarterbacks
Start
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons – A few months ago if I told you to start Newton people would have told me, “No (expletive) Sherlock.” Not only was he 2015’s highest scoring quarterback, but he was also the highest scoring player in fantasy football. This year, he goes into the championship round outside the top-10 in fantasy quarterbacks. However, this week he gets a great matchup as the Falcons defense ranks bottom-three in passing yards allowed per game. The Falcons offense should once again put up a significant amount of points, which will force Newton to throw late into the game.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints – Owners had to look away last week as Winston had one of his worst games of the season against the Dallas Cowboys. He turned the ball over four times and, as a result, only finished with single-digit fantasy points. This week he plays against the Saints, who he also didn’t do well against (8 points) just two weeks ago. Yet, I think Week 16 will be a different story because I don’t think the Buccaneers defense will shut down Drew Brees like they did two weeks. In all likelihood, Brees and the Saints offense will put up points and it’ll force Winston to throw in order to keep up and catch up. That’s the main reason Carson Palmer was a top-three fantasy quarterback last week when he played the Saints.
Eli Manning, New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles – This call isn’t because I have 100 percent faith in Eli. Instead, it’s because I kind of trust Manning and I kind of don’t trust the Eagles secondary. The Eagles have allowed an opposing quarterback to throw multiple touchdowns against them in four straight games. Manning on the other hand has thrown multiple touchdowns in six out his last seven games. Do I think Eli will throw four touchdown passes this game? No, because he’s only done that one time this season and that was back in Week 9 against…the Eagles? Dun-Dun-DUUUN!
Sit
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks – As I just mentioned when talking about Jameis Winston, Palmer was a top-three quarterback last week. It was also the fifth-straight game he threw multiple touchdown passes. The Seahawks secondary doesn’t look the same without All-Pro Earl Thomas and should have given up multiple touchdown passes to Jared Goff last week if it wasn’t for some heinous drops and throws. Even with all that in his favor, I’m not trusting this guy. On the road this season he’s averaging under 13 fantasy points per game and he’s just been a disaster for majority of the season.
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – For an eight-game stretch this season, Mariota was one of these best quarterbacks in fantasy but that time is over. In the last two games he’s combined for just 329 passing yards, zero touchdowns and two turnovers. Unlike the Jaguars quarterback, their passing defense is solid. In the last 10 games, only two quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdowns against them. Mariota was one of those quarterbacks back in Week 8, but I still don’t like his chances on the road this Saturday.
Dec 17, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets running back Bilal Powell (29) runs the ball against Miami Dolphins corner back Bobby McCain (28) during the second quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Running Backs
Start
Bilal Powell, New York Jets vs. New England Patriots – Last week, I suggested owners to start Powell if Matt Forte was inactive. If Forte was active, there was too much uncertainty for me with how the touches would be divided up. This week I’m telling you to start Powell no matter what. Over the last two weeks Powell has averaged 31 touches, 171 total yards and one touchdown per game. Last week he had 11 receptions, and I wasn’t sure if I was watching Powell out there or Le’Veon Bell. There’s a good chance the Patriots will lead for the majority of this game and Powell could push for double-digit receptions for the second week in a row. If you’re in a PPR league, this is a no brainier. In standard, you’re still starting him because of his immense workload.
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers – I guess it’s kind of ironic I’m telling owners to start Gurley because, chances are if you drafted Gurley in the first round, you didn’t make the finals. With that said, if you have him, you’re playing him. That’s because when it comes to giving away presents, the 49ers defense puts Santa Claus to shame. In each of the last three weeks, a running back playing against the 49ers has finished as a top-two fantasy running back. All three of those running backs finished their games against the 49ers with 100+ total yards and two-plus touchdowns.
Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings – After last week’s game against the Chicago Bears, how are you not starting this kid if you own him? He finished Sunday’s game with 162 rushing yards and two touchdowns on only 16 carries. His stat-line was great, but his actual play on the field was even better. The Vikings defense clearly isn’t the same as it was in the beginning of 2016 and after last week’s debacle at home, I don’t have a ton of faith in them on the road.
Sit
Dion Lewis, New England Patriots vs. New York Jets – It’s not that I don’t have faith in Lewis or his running ability or that I have a lot of faith in the Jets run defense. The fact is, I just can’t trust Lewis’ workload. Last week he surprisingly had 18 carries which nobody saw coming. The week before that, he only had three carries. So how many touches will he have this week? I’m not sure and, for all I know, James Develin will lead the team in carries this week. Unless you’re desperate for a RB2 in a PPR league, I would steer clear of Lewis.
Kenneth Farrow, San Diego Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns – This is one of the rare times I’ll recommend benching a player against the Browns. After Farrow’s performance last week, he’s earned it. In his first start of his career the rookie only averaged 2.6 yards per carry and he fumbled twice. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Ronnie Hillman gets more playing time after he found more success with his seven carries and, you know, didn’t fumble (twice).
Dec 19, 2016; Landover, MD, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Ted Ginn (19) scores a touchdown as Washington Redskins cornerback Josh Norman (24) looks on during the first half at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Wide Receivers
Start
Ted Ginn Jr., Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons – A lot of owners are scratching their heads and wondering what in the world happened to Kelvin Benjamin. The guy is basically nonexistent this season. Instead of doing that, owners should realize how well Ginn has been doing as of late. The former Ohio State Buckeye has averaged 70 receiving yards over his last four games and has four touchdowns over the last five games. He’s the No. 1 wide receiver on the Panthers and is also the team’s punt returner. He’s a touchdown waiting to happen.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals – The speedester was hampered by a knee injury earlier in the season, but now he’s over it. In the last three games he has averaged five-plus receptions and 78 yards on seven targets per game. Arizona’s defense isn’t nearly as good as we thought it would be at stopping the pass and last Drew Brees torched them for 389 yards and four touchdowns last week. As Brandin Cooks showed us last week against the Cardinals, speed kills and that’s what Lockett has plenty of.
Robby Anderson, New York Jets vs. New England Patriots – Say hello the Jets new No. 1 wide receiver. At least that’s what he is as long as Bryce Petty is the quarterback of the Jets. In two full games with Petty, Anderson is averaging five receptions and 90 yards on 8.5 targets per game. He also has caught a touchdown from Petty in two out of the last three games. The Jets should be trailing in this game and that’ll give Petty a great opportunity to give his favorite wide receiver plenty of targets.
Sit
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos – The last time Hill played against the Broncos, he killed them with three total touchdowns. The problem is, I don’t think he’s going to catch the best secondary in the league by surprise again. Not to mention, I don’t think they’ll make the same mistake of kicking the ball to him again.
Terrelle Pryor, Cleveland Browns vs. San Diego Chargers – Over the last two games Pryor has combined for five receptions and 22 yards. He has a finger injury that won’t heal until after the season and there’s a good chance he sees plenty of Casey Hayward. It’s not a good situation. One might even say the situation is garbage?
Tyrell Williams, San Diego Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns – Williams suffered a shoulder injury back in Week 12. In three full games with the injury, Williams has averaged less than three receptions for 45 yards per game. He simply just can’t be trusted.
Dec 18, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cameron Brate (84) celebrates his third quarter touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Tight Ends
Start
Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints – Believe it or not, Brate has been a better fantasy contributor than teammate Mike Evans over the last three games. In that span, he has averaged 10+ fantasy points per week while Evans has averaged fewer than five per week. With tight ends being so unreliable this year, Brate is a relatively safe option who has scored a touchdown in two out his last three games.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants – Normally I wouldn’t recommend such an obvious starter, but considering he’s currently being started in less than 70 percent of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues, I’m going to. Over the last three games, Ertz has averaged eight-plus receptions and 90 receiving yards on 12 targets. With those sort of numbers, he should be in 100 percent of lineups this week.
Sit
Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals – Graham only has one reception in each of his last two games and Arizona has only given up one touchdown to an opposing tight end all season. The last time he faced Arizona he finished with five receptions for 53 yards, and a stat line like that is right around the ceiling for Graham this week.
Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins vs. Chicago Bears – You know how people say, “If he’s active, you got to start him” when it comes to fantasy football? Well that saying is obtuse (you can thank The Shawshank Redemption playing in the background for that adjective). I’m not saying it’s not acceptable at times. But in this case, it’s isn’t. Reed’s shoulder injury is seriously limiting his ability and snaps. As a result he only has two receptions for 16 yards over the last two games combined. Reed might have helped you get to this point but he’s not going to help you win this week.
Dec 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; New England Patriots strong safety Patrick Chung (23) celebrates after a play with cornerback Logan Ryan (26) and defensive back Duron Harmon (30) and defensive back Devin McCourty (32) in the fourth quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Patriots won 16-3. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
D/ST
Start
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets – Last week the Miami Dolphins had the highest scoring D/ST when they played against the Jets. I can’t guarantee the Patriots will finish as the highest scoring D/ST this week, but double-digit points is more than likely.
More from NFL Spin Zone
San Diego Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns – The Chargers have recorded an interception in four-straight games and have forced multiple turnovers in two out of those four games. The Browns are still the Browns.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings – The Packers have forced eight interceptions in their last two games and 10 turnovers overall. The Vikings offense can’t do much of anything behind their terrible offensive line and they have the league’s worst rushing offense.
Sit
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – The last time the Ravens played the Steelers, their D/ST produced double-digit fantasy points. This time around, the Steelers will be playing at home and the Ravens could be without their No. 1 cornerback, Jimmy Smith.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins – Sure, the Dolphins are playing with a backup quarterback, but that doesn’t mean I have much faith in the Bills. They haven’t scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 5 and have finished with negative points in three out of their last eight games.
Dec 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton talks with NFL head linesman Kent Payne (79) during the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Last Week and Season-Long Record of Start/Sit
This week and every week I’ll be keeping track of my recommendations from the week before and total for the entire season. Keep in mind, I’m not going to recommend ridiculously obvious players to sit or start just to pad my stats.
Week 15 QB Starts: Colin Kaepernick, Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson – Both Kaepernick and Wilson finished as top-nine quarterbacks. Cousins crushed the dreams of so many fantasy owners with his ugly performance (including me). Result 2/3
Week 15 QB Sits: Andrew Luck and Dak Prescott – Both of these quarterbacks did well for owners. Result 0/2
Week 15 RB Starts: Tevin Coleman, Bilal Powell and Kenneth Dixon – Devonta Freeman hogged all the touchdowns to himself and didn’t share any with Coleman. Dixon found the end zone. Powell had a monster game, but I said if Forte was active, I was going to call off my recommendation of starting him. So I will not get credit for that. Result 1/2
Week 15 RB Sits: Mark Ingram, Ryan Mathews and Frank Gore – Tim Hightower stole Ingram’s touchdowns, which worked out well for me. I bet against Mathews and Gore despite their expected high-volume workload. Yeah, I shouldn’t have done that. Result 1/3
Week 15 WR Starts: Alshon Jeffery, Tyreek Hill and DeSean Jackson – Jeffery and Hill both scored a touchdown and Jackson went over 100 yards receiving. Result 3/3
Week 15 WR Sits: Malcolm Mitchell, A.J. Green, Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins – Mitchell was shutdown by a great secondary and Robinson was shut down by an awful quarterback. Green was inactive so we won’t count that, but Hopkins benefited from the Texans benching Brock Osweiler. Result 2/3
Week 15 TE Starts: Kyle Rudolph and Ladarius Green – Rudolph’s eight receptions for 97 yards was more than solid. Green finished with 5 receptions for 72 yards. I was on the fence about Green, but he finished outside the top-10, so I won’t give myself this one. Result 1/2
Week 15 TE Sits: Dennis Pitta and Jason Witten – Pitta only finished with one fantasy point so he was a bust. Witten had 10 receptions for 51 yards. Usually I’ll give out half credit for someone who did okay in standard leagues and good in PPR leagues. The fact is, Witten did bad in standard leagues because his lost fumble brought his standard league total down to three points. Result 2/2
Week 15 D/ST Starts: Raiders, Texans and Bills – All three D/ST finished as a top-eight unit for Week 15. Result 3/3
Week 15 D/ST Sits: Panthers and Cardinals – The Panthers did a lot better than I expected, but the difference between at top-eight unit and a top-12 unit in this case was one point. That one point did not work in the Panthers favor. The Cardinals got smoked by the Saints. Result 2/2
Week 14 Results: 17/25 = 68 percent
Season Long Results: 219/378 = 58 percent
