Five Bills facing a make-or-break season in 2015
In the NFL, a player’s roster spot is never given. Contracts aren’t fully guaranteed as they are in the MLB and NBA, which means players have to prove they’re worthy of long-term deals.
Every year, each team has a handful of cap casualties, or players that are cut because of their high cap number to go along with poor performance. For the Buffalo Bills, there are several players who are facing make-or-break seasons in 2015 if they hope to hold onto their roster spots in 2016. Here are five of those players:
EJ Manuel, quarterback
The Bills have had endless issues trying to find a franchise quarterback to lead their team. They’ve suffered a playoff drought of 15 long seasons, most of which can be attributed to poor quarterback play. Bills fans thought they may have found their quarterback for the future in 2013 when Buffalo selected EJ Manuel in the first round of the draft.
Unfortunately, Manuel has done everything but perform in the NFL, and has found himself on the roster bubble for 2016. He enters 2015 in a battle with Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor for the starting job, but early indications are that Cassel will win the gig. Manuel has struggled in training camp thus far, and if he doesn’t prove his worth this season, he could be a roster cut next offseason.
Manuel is in the second-to-last year of his contract, which expires after next season. If the Bills were to cut him after this season, they’d only be hit with roughly $2.8 million in dead money for 2016. Of course, this will only be necessary if Manuel can’t outplay Cassel and/or Taylor this season. If he’s able to make an impact this year and prove that he’s the Bills’ quarterback for years to come, he should be on the roster next season. However, that’s far from a certainty, and a relatively unimpressive 2015 is more likely at this point.
Percy Harvin, wide receiver
Like several other teams in the past, the Bills took a chance on wide receiver Percy Harvin this offseason. They signed the struggling offensive weapon to a three-year deal worth $24 million, but it can be voided after one season. In fact, it’s most likely only going to be a one-year deal, because the Bills can cut Harvin without much penalty after this season.
In 2016, Harvin will count $10 million against the cap — fourth-highest on the team. However, if the Bills cut him before June 1 of 2016, he’ll incur zero dollars of dead money. For that reason alone, Harvin could easily see himself on the open market next offseason.
If Harvin defies the odds and has a terrific 2015 season, it’s plausible that the Bills could keep him on the roster. The odds of him having a great season look meek, though, after his recent run of disappointing seasons. Since 2011, when he set a career-high in receptions (87), receiving yards (967), and starts (14), Harvin has started just 20 games in four seasons. If Harvin wants to remain on the Bills in 2016, he’ll need to stay on the field, and stay productive. Next to Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins at wide receiver, Harvin should have plenty of opportunities to make plays for the Bills.
Leodis McKelvin, cornerback
When the Bills selected cornerback Ronald Darby with their first selection (second round) in the 2015 NFL Draft, it all but spelled the end for McKelvin’s tenure with the Bills. Already with Stephon Gilmore, Nickell Robey, and Ron Brooks at corner, the Bills have depth at the position, even without McKelvin in the fold.
Another reason why McKelvin could be playing his last season with the Bills in 2015 is his contract. He’s set to count $4.9 million against the cap in 2016, but would only hit the Bills with $1 million in dead money if cut next offseason. That would save Buffalo $3.9 million next season, money they could certainly use to extend star defensive tackle Marcell Dareus. Darby has stepped in admirably for McKelvin thus far in training camp, and could conceivably be a starter at the start of regular season. If McKelvin can’t stay healthy, as he has yet to do this offseason, Darby’s performance could lead the Bills to release McKelvin next offseason.
Matt Cassel, quarterback
Cassel is a player facing a make-or-break season like his teammate EJ Manuel, but for different reasons. Cassel, unlike Manuel, is only under contract for this season. For that reason alone, there is a great deal of pressure on him. If he fails to perform in 2015 and can’t retain the starting quarterback job over Manuel and Taylor, Cassel probably won’t be with the Bills in 2016.
To continue that thought, if Cassel isn’t the starting quarterback for at least the majority of this season, it likely means the Bills are on their way to another losing season. If Buffalo starts the season poorly with Cassel at the helm, the coaching staff could choose to plug in Manuel to see if he can be their quarterback for the future. A losing season would also mean a relatively high draft pick next season, which could conceivably be spent on a quarterback.
Early on in training camp, Cassel has edged ahead of Manuel and Taylor. That doesn’t mean he’s won the job already, but it’s promising for Cassel, at the very least. Beating out Manuel and Taylor shouldn’t be too challenging for the journeyman quarterback, seeing as he led the Patriots to 11 wins in 2008. He won’t need to win the Bills 11 games in 2015, but he’ll need to hold onto the starting job for most of the season to stay with the team in 2016.
Anthony Dixon, running back
LeSean McCoy is the Bills’ running back for the foreseeable future. That’s a given. Fred Jackson, his backup, is only under contract for this season, leaving Anthony Dixon and rookie Karlos Williams as the only other running backs under contract after this year. McCoy is relatively durable, missing just six games in his career, but like every running back in the NFL, he needs a backup.
Jackson will fill that role this season, but who will do it in 2016? If Dixon doesn’t have a strong season in 2015, it could be Williams. That would leave Dixon on the outside looking in, and it’s because of his Bills-friendly contract. In 2016, Dixon will count about $1.3 million towards the Bills’ salary cap, which is more than double Williams’ cap hit. For that reason alone, along with staying young at the position, Dixon could be cut next offseason.
Dixon has been a perennial backup in the NFL, but he got his biggest opportunity in 2014 when he carried the ball a career-high 105 times for 432 yards. His 4.1 yards per carry last season left something to be desired, and hasn’t proven to be a consistent back, averaging 3.5 yards per carry in his career. It’s a prove-it type year for Dixon in 2015, otherwise he’ll be on the outside looking in next year.
*All salary cap information comes from Overthecap.com
