National Football League

Five middling teams that should re-emerge as contenders

Updated Oct. 21, 2022 2:45 p.m. ET

By Bucky Brooks
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

In the NFL, it takes about six games before coaches are able to thoroughly evaluate their teams to determine the strengths and weaknesses of their rosters.

The optimism from offseason workouts and training camp is cast aside as the regular season reveals how well a team's personnel suits their tactics and schemes.

Moreover, coaches are able to assess the film and make determinations on how to tweak their team's playing style to maximize the squad's overall potential and enhance their chances of making a playoff run.

During my time with the Carolina Panthers in the early 2000s, I watched John Fox transform a collection of cast-offs and misfits into Super Bowl contenders with subtle lineup changes and schematic adjustments. He not only identified the strengths of the team's roster, but he implemented a strategy that enabled the Panthers to win consistently when they were able to play the game on their terms.

After watching that band of overachievers narrowly lose in Super Bowl XXXVIII, I am convinced that great coaches can turn pretenders into contenders with a few in-season adjustments to their lineups and/or call sheets. Although the coaching staff must convince each player on the squad to believe in the plan while accepting their designated role on the squad, the team committed to playing the right way have a chance to make a playoff push down the stretch.

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Surveying the current NFL landscape, it is not a coincidence that we are seeing more activity on the trade market and waiver wire. Team builders have conducted thorough evaluations of their squads and are willing to make moves to upgrade their lineups or sell off assets to acquire draft capital for their rebuilding efforts.

Coaches are also in evaluation mode as they huddle with their coaching staff to determine whether their game plans are maximizing the potential of the team. In addition, coaches are peppering assistants with questions regarding the depth chart and player rotations to ensure the best players on the field at key times.

With film study and analytical data driving some of those decisions, we will see a handful of teams separate from the pack to emerge as playoff contenders down the stretch.

Given some time to study a little tape while assessing their rosters and depth charts, here are five middling teams who should re-emerge as contenders down the stretch:

San Francisco 49ers

Credit John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan for making a blockbuster move to jumpstart an underachieving offense that was failing to perform to the championship standard. The offense, in particular, needed a spark after averaging just 20.3 points per game despite having five-star playmakers such as Deebo Samuel and George Kittle in the lineup.

Enter Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers should have enough star power to light up the scoreboard. The fastest player in league history to reach 3,000 rushing yards and 3,000 receiving yards is a dynamic playmaker with elite skill as a runner-receiver.

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With CMC becoming the featured back in the backfield, defensive coordinators will be forced to change their defensive tactics against the 49ers or the superstar running back will go bonkers and exploit matchups against lumbering linebackers and safeties.

If the offense can put a few more points on the board to give the 49ers' stifling defense a little more breathing room, Shanahan's squad will not only re-emerge as playoff contenders, but they could make another deep postseason run that culminates in a title game appearance at the end of the tournament.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow and Co. have been trying to shake off a Super Bowl hangover that has contributed to the team's slow start. The Bengals have been unable to find their offensive rhythm while dealing with an assortment of "bend, but don't break" tactics that have eliminated the deep ball and neutralized the offense's big play potential.

The umbrella tactics not only frustrated the Bengals' high-octane attack, but it prompted Burrow to play out of character as he forced too many throws into traffic, as evidenced by his five interceptions against zone coverage in 2022, per Next Gen Stats.

Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins have also been forced to change their games with opponents sitting back in umbrella coverage. Chase, in particular, has snagged just one deep pass reception in 2022 after leading the league with seven deep pass touchdown receptions a season ago.

With the deep ball off the table early in the season, the Bengals' wideouts have been challenged to pick up their yards on an assortment of "catch-and-run" plays at short and intermediate range.

Zac Taylor has subtly retooled the offense to feature more RPOs (run-pass option plays) to incorporate Joe Mixon into the equation while giving Chase, Boyd, and Higgins opportunities on the complementary quick passes and bubble screens. As a result, the Bengals are the only team in the league with three receivers with 300-plus receiving yards this season.

With the Bengals reeling off three wins in their last four contests with a red-hot quarterback (68.3% completion rate, 9-1 TD-INT, and 110.0 passer rating since Week 3) who is finding his groove against the soft coverage tactics, the defending AFC champions are poised to make another run after a slow start this season.

Green Bay Packers

Despite being left for dead after a 3-3 start, the Packers are too talented to fall off the radar as a playoff contender.

Aaron Rodgers is a four-time MVP with the capacity to put the offense on his back when he is on his game. Although he is playing with a new cast of pass catchers on the perimeter, the collection of young wideouts has the potential to develop into trusty playmakers if they can master the nuances of the playbook.

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Matt LaFleur should listen to his quarterback's pleas to simplify the offense and tweak the scheme to enable the youngsters to play fast and free on the perimeter. While an expansive call sheet provides the coach with enough answers to counter any defensive tactic, the play sheet is useless if the players are unable to execute it at a high level.

By cutting down the number of plays and concepts that the young wideouts are expected to know, the Packers might be able to get performance and production from a group that has not played up to expectations to this point.

The simplification could also help the Packers offensive line play better against the stunts and games that they are facing at the line of scrimmage. As David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins work to regain their all-star form, the reduction in calls could help the veterans focus on technique instead of calls and adjustments.

After watching the New York Jets beat Rodgers to a pulp with a myriad of stunts and games, the Packers should consider scaling back the pass play calls and pass protection package to improve their effectiveness and efficiency on offense.

On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Joe Barry has to get his unit back on track. The unit is stockpiled with elite homegrown talent, but they have not played their best football to date.

The missed tackles and shoddy execution has enabled teams to whip a talented Packers' defense that should rank as an elite unit. If Barry can get his unit to play to their potential as a blue-chip defense with superior talent, the Packers can chalk up wins with a complementary football approach that meshes well with the ingredients on their roster.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have looked like a heavyweight contender at times this season but the late-game mishaps have prevented the team from putting more W's in the win column. John Harbaugh has leaned into the analytical data to make some questionable decisions on two-point tries and fourth-down conversions, but the Ravens' issues extend beyond the educated gambles.

Lamar Jackson has flashed MVP-like skills as a dual-threat playmaker with a pair of 100-yard rushing games to complement his 13 passing touchdowns. But the former MVP has thrown an interception in four straight games. In addition, Jackson has faltered as a passer in key situations, as evidenced by his 56.3 passer rating in the fourth quarter and his 51.1% completion rate on third down.

Given those numbers and the repeated struggles that show up on tape when evaluating Jackson, the Ravens need to double down on the run-heavy tactics with the ultra-explosive quarterback featured as the primary. With more rushing attempts enabling the Ravens to put their best player in a position to do what he does best while protecting a leaky defense, the Ravens can win games utilizing "keep away" tactics (ball control/time of possession) that limit the number of total possessions in the game.

While defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is still adjusting to the pro game and his personnel, the offense must shoulder a little more of the load until Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey and others are ready to dominate down the stretch.

The Ravens certainly possess the talent, toughness, and blue-collar spirit needed to capture the crown, but Harbaugh will need to coach them up to help the team reach its potential.

New England Patriots

Bill Belichick is the master of tweaking his lineup and game plans to match the talent of his roster. The six-time Super Bowl champ has routinely taken the first month of the season to evaluate and assess his squad before making changes to the game plan to accentuate the strengths of the team.

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After studying the Patriots before and after Bailey Zappe's insertion into the lineup, the team should certainly consider rolling with the rookie as the starter while the team is playing well under his direction.

Although the Patriots' improved offensive production is partially a byproduct of Matt Patricia and the offensive staff finding a handful of concepts that work well for their personnel. The quick rhythm passing game, in particular, suits the rookie's game as a quick-rhythm passer with a fast release.

The combination of the highly efficient passing game with a punishing running game has not only given the Patriots an offensive identity, but it has helped the team climb back into the playoff hunt in an ultra-competitive division.

That said, Mac Jones could also return and spark the team with his talents, but he needs to buy into the team's offensive approach. The second-year pro was too careless with the football during the early part of the season and his turnovers compromised the Patriots' chances of winning.

As a high-end game manager with a high IQ and solid diagnostic skills, Jones knows how to play winning football. He just needs to stay in his lane and help the Patriots win utilizing a complementary football game plan that could help this team re-emerge as a playoff contender.

Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He regularly appears on "Speak For Yourself" and also breaks down the game for NFL Network and as a cohost of the "Moving the Sticks" podcast. Follow him on Twitter @BuckyBrooks.