National Football League

Football odds: Bet on the Saints to crush the Falcons (and more)

Updated Nov. 4, 2021 7:03 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Closing line value trophies absolutely suck.

Grabbing the Minnesota Vikings at +2.5 last Tuesday and seeing the betting market close Vikings -4.5 by kickoff on Sunday had me feeling all jubilant. Then Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush carved up Minnesota for 325 passing yards and two touchdowns in Dallas' 20-16 road victory.

Alrighty then.

Our best bets finished 2-3 and are now 21-16-1 YTD. Here are some early wagers for this coming weekend with betting lines via FOX Bet.

Wake Forest (+2.5 at FOX Bet) at North Carolina

There's no way I can pass up Wake Forest catching points.

Bookmakers are basically admitting that the Demon Deacons are a better team by opening North Carolina at -2. The Heels are slight favorites because the game is in Chapel Hill, which isn't exactly a tough place to play a football game. Just ask Florida State and Miami.

Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman has been electric this season, and it's going to be extremely tough for UNC's defense to stop the Deacs' aerial attack.

Carolina's gas light has been on for a while, and this feels like the game where the car finally stalls on the side of the road.

Take Wake.

PICK: Wake Forest (+2.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)

Ohio State at Nebraska (Over 64.5 points at FOX Bet)

I wanted to make sure the weather was peachy before firing on this one.

The forecast calls for 70 degrees and light clouds Saturday afternoon in Lincoln with low winds and no precipitation. That's a very good sign because now there's nothing that should stop the Buckeyes' offense.

Ohio State has scored 205 points over its last four games despite "only" getting to 33 in last weekend's victory over Penn State. OSU struggled in the red zone against a solid Nittany Lions defense and wound up kicking three short field goals — 23, 25 and 26 yards — which was very unlike Ryan Day.

Those threes will be sevens against Nebraska and I expect the Buckeyes to get close to 50 points here. Especially considering that OSU was left outside the first College Football Playoff Rankings and will need style points the rest of the way.

PICK: OVER 64.5 points combined by both teams at FOX Bet

For more, click here for your full NFL odds for Week 6, and check out the all-new "NFL Odds" section on FOXSports.com and the FOX Sports app for everything you need in the sports betting world.

New Orleans Saints (-6 at FOX Bet) vs. Atlanta Falcons

The market clearly isn't phased by Jameis Winston's knee injury. Despite Winston being out for the season with a torn ACL in his left knee, sharp money moved the Saints from -4 to -6.

I'm told it's a combination of respect for New Orleans' defense and disrespect for Atlanta's offense, which is now without Calvin Ridley for the foreseeable future.

I'm making this pick assuming that Trevor Siemian will start under center and Taysom Hill will remain in concussion protocol. Head coach Sean Payton told reporters he's satisfied with his quarterback room and that the Saints don't plan to bring somebody in from the outside.

That decision will likely hinder the Saints down the stretch, but it shouldn't matter one bit against the lowly Falcons.

PICK: New Orleans (-6 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6 points

Six-point teaser:

If you are not familiar with a two-team teaser, it allows you to move a side or total six points. But, you must win both legs of the teaser to cash in.

To maximize our betting math, let's tease the Rams down from -7.5 through the 7, 6 and 3 and the 49ers up from +1.5 through 3, 6 and 7.

The Titans are in a world of trouble without Derrick Henry, and this line has already moved from Rams -4 on the lookahead to -7.5. I don't want to lay more than a touchdown in this spot, but Los Angeles is very enticing at -1.5.

I also like San Francisco in this situation, but I want more points. This game should be extremely tight as these two teams always seem to be separated by a field goal in the fourth quarter. The Niners are a great teaser option at +7.5.

PICK: Rams teased to -1.5; 49ers teased to +7.5 (-122 at FOX Bet)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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