National Football League

Football odds: Why now's the time to bet on Notre Dame and the Jaguars (seriously)

Updated Sep. 17, 2021 4:31 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Football is back! There's simply absolutely nothing like being able to watch and wager on games all weekend long, across both the pro and amateur ranks. It's the best.

Now, we're back with Week 2 of the NFL slate and Week 3 of the college football card, so let's jump in. I’ve been selective with my picks so far this season (3-3-1), but here are my early best bets for this weekend, with lines courtesy of FOX Bet:

Notre Dame (-7 at FOX Bet) vs. Purdue

This game is a great buy-low opportunity on the Irish, who persevered through two tough spots in back-to-back weeks. Opening the season at Florida State in a primetime, standalone game is never easy. Then there was a surefire letdown spot at home against MAC favorites Toledo as 17-point chalk.

The Irish did what they had to do, and now they'll play their first game without travel and a whole week of rest. Don't underestimate that for one second.

The Boilermakers will also be without starting tailback Zander Horvath, who broke his fibula and underwent surgery on Monday.

I expect Notre Dame to play its first complete game of the season and beat Purdue by two touchdowns.

PICK: Notre Dame (-7) to win by more than 7 points at FOX Bet

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Dallas Cowboys (+3 at FOX Bet) at Los Angeles Chargers

Betting against the Chargers when they're a home favorite has been a professional angle for some time. I know guys that have made lots of money over the years fading coaches Norv Turner, Mike McCoy, and Anthony Lynn as short California chalk.

The truth is, I do like new Bolts head coach Brandon Staley a lot, so this isn't just a straight fade. It's more about taking that explosive Dallas offense with three extra days of rest.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense showed me a lot on opening night in Tampa, and I'll gladly take the full field goal in what should be a coin flip game.

The total steaming up from over/under 50 to 55 tells you everything you need to know about the expected fireworks.

PICK: Cowboys (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright) at FOX Bet

Denver Broncos (-6 at FOX BET) at Jacksonville Jaguars

That’s right, we’re doing this.

It’s time to jump on the Jacksonville train that the betting public couldn’t wait to ride last week. Over 75% of the spread tickets showed up for the Jaguars and they absolutely sucked against the Houston Texans.

And now that everybody is off the bandwagon, but I’m ready to drive it. I loved the brilliance that Trevor Lawrence showed in the second half and think he’s in for a much better performance at home in the heat.

The Denver Broncos are playing their second straight game a long way from home and their stock is too high right now. They were a 3-point favorite on the lookahead line and now the market is painted with sixes.

Denver is also without their best receiver Jerry Jeudy. A three-point move is not justified.

Let's go Jaguars!

PICK: Jaguars (+6) to lose by fewer than 6 points (or win outright) at FOX Bet

Northern Illinois at Michigan: Under 54.5 at FOX Bet

Don’t let the score of the Huskies' last game fool you.

NIU and Wyoming played to a 50-43 shootout last Saturday with almost 900 combined yards of total offense. If you think NIU-Michigan will be anywhere close to that, I’ve got some oceanfront property to sell you right outside Ann Arbor. It’s beautiful, I swear.

If Washington scored 10 points at the Big House, how many do you think Northern Illinois is going to score? Those Huskies rushed for 50 yards on the ground and I don’t expect these Huskies to have much more success.

On the other side of the field, Michigan will do enough to jump ahead early and coast. This one has all the makings of a 37-10 Michigan winner.

Under it is.

PICK: Northern Illinois and Michigan to score less than 54.5 points at FOX Bet

LEANS

Tulsa at Ohio State: "Over" 61.5 total points scored

I want to see how this number moves over the next couple of days. We already see some 59.5s in the betting market. That alone is enough to wait.

I feel for the Golden Hurricane, who have to face an Ohio State team that was just embarrassed at home by Oregon as a 14-point favorite. Ryan Day is going to score and score and score some more. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Buckeyes put up 50+ here.

They will not let up, and Tulane will have no answer for the skill and speed of OSU's offensive attack.

LEAN: Tulsa-Ohio State to score more than 61.5 points combined

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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