National Football League

From No. 1 draft pick to Super Bowl pick: 10 Bold Predictions for NFL 2023

Updated Feb. 17, 2023 9:57 a.m. ET

The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles closed out the 2022 season in an epic Super Bowl LVII, with the Chiefs overcoming a 10-point halftime deficit for a 38-35 victory.

So now it's time to look forward to the upcoming year.

Of course, that conversation has already started, with NFL observers offering opinions on several hotly debated topics nationally, including potential new homes for quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo.

Along with that, pressing league issues like the potential sale of the Washington Commanders, which player will go No. 1 overall in this year's draft and an eventual replacement for Tom Brady remain front and center.

So, let's dive into those topics and others here, peering into our crystal ball for our Top 10 Bold Predictions for 2023. We'll start from the bottom and work our way to who will play in next year's big game.

10. C.J. Stroud goes No. 1 overall in the draft — to the Texans

Several draft analysts have Bryce Young rated as the top quarterback in this year's draft. After all, Young is a Heisman Trophy winner and led Alabama to a national title during his time with the Crimson Tide. He's an accurate passer and has proven clutch in critical moments.

But at 6-foot and 194 pounds, Young is similar in stature to another former Alabama QB in Tua Tagovailoa, and durability is a concern. To be fair, Young missed just one game last season, due a shoulder sprain. But at 6-foot-3 and 218 pounds, Stroud has a bigger frame and seems built for the punishment quarterbacks have to endure in the NFL. Stroud did not miss a game in two seasons as a starter at Ohio State and still has room for growth at the next level.

The Texans own the No. 2 overall selection. With quarterback-needy teams like the Indianapolis Colts and the Carolina Panthers as potential trade partners with the Chicago Bears, who own the No. 1 pick, the Texans might have to move up to make sure they get their guy. But new head coach DeMeco Ryans understands the importance of durability at that quarterback position. The former 49ers defensive coordinator watched his team go through four signal-callers last season.

9. Sean Payton orchestrates bounce-back year for Broncos, Russell Wilson

Yes, Wilson had the worst season of his NFL career after the blockbuster trade from the Seattle Seahawks and his lucrative contract extension in 2022.

The addition of Payton as Broncos head coach should help bring out Wilson's best, making him accountable for how he operates Denver's offense and putting the Wisconsin product in the best scheme for his success.

Are Russell Wilson and Sean Payton a good match?

Saints DE Cam Jordan joins Colin Cowherd to discuss how his former head coach will fare with Russell Wilson in Denver.

That means play-action passes, taking what the defense gives him and leaning on the running game. Payton made the playoffs during nine of his 15 seasons with the New Orleans Saints, including a Super Bowl title. Expect the fledging Broncos to return to their winning ways in 2023, including returning the playoffs for the first time since 2015.

8. Jimmy Garoppolo replaces Tom Brady in Tampa Bay

The Eastern Illinois product was once projected to replace Brady with the New England Patriots. Now a decade later Garoppolo will get his opportunity in Tampa, and with a pretty good defense for head coach Todd Bowles and the Bucs.

Yes, Tampa Bay certainly could go with Kyle Trask as the heir apparent to Brady. Former head coach Bruce Arians liked the Florida's product's skill set, and Trask could develop into a franchise quarterback with some seasoning. But there will be immense pressure on Bowles to reach the postseason next season in a very winnable division. Tampa Bay needs competent play at quarterback to do that, and Garoppolo has proven he is a solid game manager.

7. Aaron Rodgers emerges from darkness to Big Apple

Can Rodgers go through another year of offseason drama and still return to Green Bay? As Rodgers starts his much-publicized darkness retreat, it seems like he and the Packers have reached a natural breaking point in their relationship.

Aaron Jones on Aaron Rodgers' future in Green Bay

Packers RB Aaron Jones joins Skip Bayless and Shannon Sharpe to discuss Aaron Rodgers' future with the Packers.

Green Bay has a replacement for Rodgers already on the roster in Jordan Love. And much like Brett Favre 15 years ago, Rodgers will wind up in New York City playing for the Jets, where good friend and fired Denver coach Nathaniel Hackett landed as the team's offensive coordinator.

6. Baker Mayfield subs for injured Kyler Murray in Arizona

Mayfield played better than expected in the final five games for the Los Angeles Rams subbing for an injured Matthew Stafford. He gets another opportunity to audition for a starting job somewhere by filling in for his former Oklahoma teammate, Kyler Murray, who is recovering from a torn ACL.

The Cardinals need help along the offensive line but have enough playmakers for Mayfield to come in and be a solid distributor until Murray is healthy enough to return to the field.

5. Bijan Robinson wins Offensive Rookie of the Year

Robinson is a beast of a runner and will be a true workhorse running back in the NFL. He totaled 4,215 scrimmage yards and scored 41 total touchdowns during his college career for the Texas Longhorns.

4. Derek Carr takes on the Big Easy

Carr already has taken a visit to New Orleans, where he would reunite with his former Raiders head coach in Dennis Allen. The Raiders are expected to release Carr on Tuesday to avoid paying him a $40 million guarantee in the contract he signed last season in head coach Josh McDaniel's first year with the team.

According to reports, Carr isn't willing to accept a trade to any team, meaning he'll join the list of free-agent QBs. The Saints need a solid decision maker at quarterback to compete in a very winnable NFC South. Paired with a good defense and talented runner in Alvin Kamara, Carr could do much worse than the Saints as he moves on from Las Vegas.

3. Buffalo Bills will miss 2023 postseason

Josh Allen's turnover issues were a revelation in the postseason, as the Cincinnati Bengals thoroughly handled the Bills on the road in the AFC divisional round. And the AFC East will be better next season: Bill O'Brien returns to New England as the Patriots' offensive coordinator, defensive guru Vic Fangio takes over as DC for the Miami Dolphins, and Rodgers potentially lands with the Jets.

Done with the Josh Allen hype

After the Bills lost to the Bengals in the playoffs, Nick Wright said Buffalo's Josh Allen is not a top-five NFL QB.

After reaching the playoffs four straight years, it seems like the Bills may have missed their window of opportunity to reach a Super Bowl, at least in the near term.

2. Dan Snyder done in Washington?

Two years ago, an independent investigation authorized by the NFL found a toxic workplace culture in the Commanders organization. The NFL fined the team $10 million, and owner Dan Snyder was asked to step away from daily operations.

The team is currently under investigation again. Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay publicly expressed his frustration with what is happening in Washington last October. And Snyder has begun exploratory discussions to potentially sell the team. Perhaps Washington will have a new owner in 2023.

1. Super Bowl LVIII: Bengals vs. Cowboys

Even though Patrick Mahomes just earned his second Super Bowl MVP, it's hard to pick against Joe Burrow and the Bengals reaching the NFL title game next season. The Bengals have defeated the Chiefs in three of the past four meetings.

And we'll go with the Cowboys finally finding a way to get back in the Super Bowl, now that Mike McCarthy is returning to calling plays on offense and Dan Quinn is staying as the team's defensive coordinator.

So the Cowboys return to the big game for the first time since 1996. Just don't expect them to win it.

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.

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