National Football League

Grading the nine Bills we thought would determine their playoff run

Published Jan. 23, 2023 1:24 p.m. ET

The Buffalo Bills didn’t get the job done. They’re out of the Super Bowl hunt — and far earlier than they expected. For the second consecutive year, the Bills lost in the AFC divisional round.

Buffalo beat the Miami Dolphins in the wild-card round in sloppy fashion. And the Bills couldn’t clean up their act against the Cincinnati Bengals, who took complete control of the game on Sunday and won 27-10.

It’s going to be a tough offseason for Buffalo, which will have to make tough coaching and player-personnel decisions. But before the Bills do that, let’s take a look at what went wrong — and who went wrong — in the team's failed championship pursuit.

Bills exposed in loss to Bengals

The Bengals once again stamped their ticket to the AFC Championship Game after defeating Josh Allen and the Bills 27-10. Craig Carton lays out what this loss says about the Bills and whether they've been overrated all season.

Entering the playoffs, I wrote about which Bills would dictate their postseason. So let’s revisit that list of nine players and coaches to see how they performed.

Head coach Sean McDermott

What we wrote: "It has to start with McDermott, the head coach and leader of this team. In the wake of Damar Hamlin’s cardiac arrest and the trauma that surrounded it, McDermott has demonstrated a strong moral compass. … McDermott will have to manage his team schematically and strategically in the coming weeks. Every fourth-down decision, every substitution, every timeout call — it all matters in this immensely intense playoff atmosphere."

What we saw: Following Sunday's game, linebacker Matt Milano told reporters, "There was no real energy, juice. No momentum." How is it possible to go through a playoff game without any juice? But that matches what we saw, with the Bills falling into an early hole and never looking dangerous.

That’s on the coaches for failing to build confidence in the team. Maybe they didn’t believe they could pull off the comeback. I also didn’t love McDermott’s decision to take a field goal in the third quarter Sunday. On the whole, the team looked completely out of sorts in both of its playoff games. Buffalo looked completely discombobulated, and perhaps that’s because of the emotions from Hamlin’s situation. That’s why I’ll give McDermott the benefit of the doubt — he was managing an intense and adverse set of circumstances.

Grade: B-

QB Josh Allen

What we wrote: "Allen had his issues with turnovers, but insanely enough, he is so darn good that he can often overcome those major mistakes and pull off a win. In the postseason, he can't risk it. He'll need to keep his interceptions at a minimum — his risk-taking mindset will need to change."

What we saw: In the game against the Dolphins, Allen took too many risks, resulting in two interceptions and a lost fumble (that went for a touchdown). Those three turnovers allowed Miami to stay in the game, even with third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson at the helm. The 34-31 game should not have been close. But like I wrote in the preview, Allen was so good that he managed to pull out the win. That's typical for Buffalo.

But the narrative went askew against the Bengals. Allen didn’t throw an interception until the 59th minute, when the Bills were already out of it. So Allen’s game was fairly clean, though he missed a number of open receivers on short or intermediate routes because he was trying to push the ball down the field. It was a cyclical problem for Allen and his pass-catchers. They weren’t good enough, struggling with separation issues. He wasn’t good enough at finding them when they were open. (And to make matters worse, the offensive line struggled to pass-protect, so Allen was constantly on the run.)

At this point, we've come to expect greatness from Allen. And this wasn't it.

Grade: C

WR Stefon Diggs

What we wrote: "He's HIM. What else is there to say?"

What we saw: Diggs finished the postseason with seven catches for 114 yards against the Dolphins and four catches for 35 yards against the Bengals. Those numbers against Cincy are a big problem. It didn’t help that he let his emotions get the better of him by apparently calling out Allen on the sideline in a bout of frustration. Allen said postgame that Diggs was upset about not getting the ball more. And that’s fair — Diggs should’ve gotten the ball more. The most egregious miss came on the team’s opening drive in the divisional round.

Grade: B

CB Tre’Davious White

What we wrote: "Their secondary has been the weakest link on the defense, with cornerbacks Taron Johnson (slot), Dane Jackson, Christian Benford and Kaiir Elam struggling with injuries and overall performance. … If White can get back to shutting down true WR1s — or even limiting them — then this defense will be truly special."

What we saw: It’s fair to say Buffalo's coverage was an abject disaster against the Bengals. The Bills started Jackson, only to bench him for Elam. The linebackers looked completely lost and a pair of busted coverages led to Bengals touchdowns. Near the end of the game, Jordan Poyer and White ran into each other and bonked heads, which forced them both to miss time. A comedy of errors.

White was one of many Bills defenders unable to handle Cincinnati's pass-catchers, who ran free and wild in the first half. In the second half, the Bengals offense quieted down. But in my mind, that was largely because they knew they had the game in control. If they had wanted to score more, they probably could have been more aggressive and put up a higher point total. It’s just that the BIlls offense didn’t put any pressure on Cincy.

Grade: C

RB James Cook

What we wrote: "Rookie running back James Cook has been the efficient and explosive playmaker that the offense seemingly lacked. With 22 touches in the past two weeks, Cook has taken on a role in the passing and rushing game. As a jittery option out of the backfield, he has been a boon to the Bills offense late in the regular season."

What we saw: Cooks was neither explosive nor efficient. Against the Dolphins, he had 12 carries for 39 yards (3.3 ypc) and a touchdown. Then he had five carries for 13 yards (2.6 ypc) against the Bengals. He recorded zero receptions on zero targets.

I don’t see this as his problem. It’s on offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to get Cook the ball in the passing game. And it’s on the offensive line to create more space for their runner. That makes for a tough grade.

Grade: C+

DE Gregory Rousseau

What we wrote: "Rousseau has taken over the mantle as the team's big-time playmaker on the defensive line."

What we saw: Rousseau has not taken over the mantle as the team's big-time playmaker on the defensive line. He was the team’s best pass rusher during the postseason, but he recorded zero sacks and nine pressures. It would be an overstatement to call him a big-time playmaker after those two postseason performances. He was good not great.

Grade: B-

DC Leslie Frazier

What we wrote: "Frazier has led one hell of a defense this year, with the unit finishing second in points per game allowed (17.9), sixth in yards allowed per game (319.1) and fourth in DVOA (-10%). It's pretty simple: Frazier's no-nonsense approach has helped put supremely talented players in positions where — as a unit of 11 players — the Bills defense is one of the NFL's best."

What we saw: A mess — that’s what we saw. In both games, Frazier’s unit looked surprisingly unprepared. I get that the defense didn’t have edge Von Miller, Hamlin or safety Micah Hyde. I also get that White has not been 100 percent this season. But the Bills defense let Skylar Thompson play at a stunningly high level. And then Buffalo looked like it was staging a walkthrough against Cincinnati's offense. The Bills looked like they were at half-speed. I don’t think Frazier deserves to be fired. I do think he and McDermott should be extremely disappointed with how their defense looked in this game.

Grade: F

OC Ken Dorsey

What we wrote: "The Bills' passing attack doesn't look as dynamic as it should. There's reason to question why Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox haven't had bigger years. And there's reason to question why Allen has had to lead the team in rushing in nine of its 16 regular-season games. Dorsey can silence that skepticism during this playoff run."

What we saw: The offense’s season-long problems reared their ugly head in the postseason. In the first game, we saw Allen’s turnover problems keep Miami in the game. That’s more on Allen than Dorsey. But then against the Bengals, we saw the offense go dark as soon as Cincinnati shut down Diggs. No one else could step up.

There’s a lack of creativity in Dorsey’s play-designing and calling. There’s a lack of foresight and, perhaps, communication with Allen. The offense looked broken at a number of points this season, and while you could see Dorsey trying to fix it — with a heightened emphasis on Cook, Knox and Davis on rare occasions — those solutions didn’t come into play during the postseason. Allen couldn't get the ball to Diggs. Allen wasn't running for first downs. And because those two things weren't working, the Bills offense sputtered.

Grade: C-

LB Matt Milano

What we wrote: "Milano doesn't get nearly enough love. But make no mistake: He is one of the team's most important defenders. He's also one of the best linebackers in the league."

What we saw: Finally, here’s a Bill I can praise. Milano had a solid game with 10 tackles, one sack and two tackles for loss against the Bengals. Milano tackled Joe Mixon for a loss near the goal line and set up the Bengals for a third-and-long that they didn’t convert. So Milano’s TFL helped force a field-goal attempt. Then he logged a third-down sack in the first quarter to force Cincinnati's first punt of the game.

His biggest issues were in coverage, where he allowed three catches 32 yards — mostly check-downs where he struggled to get the running back to the ground in space. But at least Milano made some big plays early in the game to try to keep his team in contention. That’s more than most of the Buffalo roster can say.

Grade: B

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @McKennAnalysis.

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