Letting Casey Hayward walk this offseason was extremely out of character for Packers general manager Ted Thompson.
Just a few months later, the Packers are paying the price.
Thompson and the Packers are famous for eschewing free agency in favor of the NFL Draft. For that approach to work, though, Thompson needs to be able to do two things—select good players in the draft, and keep them in Green Bay beyond their rookie contracts.
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Historically, he’s done very well on both counts. When Hayward signed with San Diego this offseason, it marked one of the very few times that a talented young player and a high draft pick got out of Green Bay after his rookie deal.
Through four weeks of the young 2016 season, Hayward is making Thompson look foolish. He’s the second highest graded corner in the entire NFL according to Pro Football Focus with a mark of 88.4, second only to David Amerson.
The Packers’ young corners don’t stack up quite as well on the film review site. Ladarius Gunter is ranked 23rd among cornerbacks, Quentin Rollins is 61st, and Damarious Randall is 108th with a putrid ranking of 40.1.
PFF is far from Gospel. But in this case, the numbers match what we’re seeing on the field. While Hayward has elevated his play in San Diego, the Packers’ sophomores continue to struggle with technique and give up big plays to opposing receivers.
Letting Hayward walk would have made more sense if Thompson had had designs on selecting a corner in the draft this offseason. But despite the position being an under-the-radar need, Thompson didn’t draft a single defensive back.
Before the draft, I wrote the following:
“The truth is that the Packers are just a torn ACL here and a sophomore slump there away from potential disaster.”
And now, here we are. With Sam Shields suffering a concussion (thankfully not an ACL tear, but still a very concerning injury) and Randall going through a slump, the Packers’ pass defense has been an absolute disaster against the likes of Stefon Diggs and Marvin Jones.
Hayward hadn’t made as many plays in his last three years with the Packers as he did in his rookie season, when he broke up 21 passes and intercepted 6. But he had still been a reliable and productive cover man in the slot, and he’s already making plays in San Diego. He has 3 interceptions and 6 passes defended so far this year.
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At just 3 years and $15.3 million, Thompson could have easily afforded to keep Hayward on the team. For comparison, Julius Peppers counts $10.5 million against the cap for 2016 alone.
But letting the young playmaker walk wasn’t really about money. It was based on Thompson’s supreme confidence in Damarious Randall and Quentin Rollins.
So far, those two players haven’t done much to prove Thompson right. It’s still early in the season, but at this point, cornerback looks like it will be one of the team’s biggest offseason needs.
Perhaps things will change. Despite the inconsistency, Randall and Rollins have both shown athleticism and playmaking ability. Gunter has been solid, meanwhile, and undrafted rookie Josh Hawkins could very well develop into a quality player.
But notwithstanding the progress these young players may or may not make, Hayward should still be wearing green and gold. Cornerback is among the most important positions in the NFL, and quality ones are difficult to find.
When you have a proven young corner established in your scheme and available for a reasonable price, it makes little sense to let that player leave. Even a short term deal could have helped the Packers bridge the gap while the youngsters develop.
Randall, Rollins and Capers need to find a way to make #29’s absence insignificant, or else the Hayward decision could end up haunting Ted Thompson.
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