Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers: Ty Montgomery puts Eddie Lacy's future in doubt

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 9:03 p.m. ET

Fansided, Kevin Culligan/FanSided via Lombardi Ave

Before the season began, I wrote a series ranking the Green Bay Packers’ top priority free agents in 2017 and predicting who would return and who would leave. Eddie Lacy was the player I ranked as the Packers’ top priority. I predicted he would return to the Packers.

“It would be a bold move for Ted Thompson to allow Lacy to get away this off season when there are no suitable replacements on the roster. Thompson also doesn’t have a stellar track record of drafting running backs, so he shouldn’t count on picking up Lacy 2.0 in the draft.”

That was the key reason that I thought Lacy would return: the lack of capable replacements. Despite Lacy’s injury history and inconsistency, he was still far and away the most talented back on the Packers’ roster.

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That has changed, and it’s not good news for Lacy.

Formerly a receiver whose biggest strength was gaining yardage after the catch, Ty Montgomery bas been a revelation at running back. He’s shown the power that was Lacy’s biggest asset, breaking 16 tackles in 50 carries in the five games that he’s carried the ball at least five times, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s also far faster than Lacy, which has obvious advantages when runs get to the second level of the defense.

Most impressive, though, has been Montgomery’s vision. On plays where James Starks would sprint to the sideline for a gain of 0, Montgomery has been like a seasoned running back waiting patiently for the hole to develop.

This is just silly https://t.co/VAlwm33dKJ

— Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) December 20, 2016

To top it off, Montgomery is obviously comfortable as a receiver, and his pass blocking grade of 78.8 beats Lacy’s mark of 75.9 this season, according to PFF.

All of this means that Eddie Lacy may not be wearing the green and gold in 2017 after all.

Lacy is still a very good NFL running back when he’s healthy and at the correct weight, with his vision and tackle-breaking ability being his biggest strengths. He was bouncing back in 2016 with a 5.1 yards per carry average after a disappointing 2015 campaign. The issue is that far too often, he’s injured or overweight.

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Adding to Lacy’s predicament is the emergence of Christine Michael, selected just one spot after Lacy by the Seattle Seahawks in the 2013 NFL Draft. Michael is a physical freak, and he’s picked up 104 yards in 24 carries so far with the Packers.

Lacy’s departure is far from guaranteed. His injuries and weight issues will drive his price tag down and make other teams reluctant to commit to a long-term deal, so Ted Thompson might be able to bring him back for relatively little money.

Meanwhile, Michael’s contract expires after this season as well, and Montgomery hasn’t been an exemplar of availability himself, playing only six games in 2015 due to a severe ankle injury. James Starks is a solid bet to be released this offseason.

Still, I would only put Lacy’s chances of returning to the Packers at about 50/50 at this point. Even if he does come back, he’ll split carries with Montgomery.

Coming into this season, Lacy held the fate of his Packers career in his hands. Now, all he can do is watch and wait.