Jan 1, 2017; Nashville, TN, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Tom Savage (3) drops back for a hand off against the Tennessee Titans during the first half during the NFL game at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean via USA TODAY Sports
The Houston Texans' future is intimately tied to the quarterback position and finding the right player may boil down to the 2017 NFL Draft.
The 2017 NFL Draft features plenty of quarterbacks who could develop into franchise signal callers for a number of teams. One of the top landing spots for the young quarterbacks is with the Houston Texans, a team ready to compete for a Super Bowl but lacking a quarterback.
While the Texans are quietly wooing quarterback Tony Romo away from the broadcast booth and retirement, head coach Bill O'Brien has ostensibly said that he and the Texans are willing to move forward with what they have at the position. What they have is Tom Savage at quarterback.
Yet, the fact that the former fourth-round quarterback from the 2014 NFL Draft headlines a depressingly shallow group of talent (fellow headliner Brandon Weeden is a definitive first-round bust) is damning. Everyone across the NFL knows that the Texans simply don't have a quarterback on the roster that can take them through the playoffs. O'Brien either does not respect the intelligence of his fans when he calls Savage and Weeden "exciting," per NFL.com, or he is simply so disconnected from reality that he's bought into their (severely lacking) hype.
All signs, except for O'Brien's poor attempt at smokescreens, point toward the Texans bringing in a new quarterback. The wait for Romo has gone on too long and most eyes are already looking to the 2017 NFL Draft. Here, some top candidates will be explored across different potential rounds.
Jan 9, 2017; Tampa, FL, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) throws the ball against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship Game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
1. Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Assuming that the Texans are at least moderately confident with Tom Savage under center, the team should wait and see if they can land Deshaun Watson without needing to use the 25th overall pick. Watson is an underrated talent that could go late in the first round all the way to the third round.
Unfortunately for the Texans, the team needs to make that determination early. If Watson holds less value than another player at 25th overall, then they can skip him then and pray he ends up making it to the bottom half of the second round. In a pass-happy NFL with quarterbacks at a premium, that may be wishful thinking.
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Watson's 41 touchdowns to 17 interceptions in 2016 has to have the Texans excited. He has been effective in scoring while keeping mistakes manageable. His overall skill set is workable for the NFL and can grow into better decision making while still maintaining some of the collegiate flair that helped turn 2016's Clemson squad into national champions.
While Watson will have to learn the pro offense, his quick release is promising. Coaches will not have to rebuild him from the ground up but focus on getting him ingrained quickly to the NFL style of play and being more of a pocket passer and less of a runner (1,934 rushing yards in three seasons).
Lance Zierlein's comparison to Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota is apt, per NFL.com. Coming out of college, Mariota was expected to take time to adjust to a pro-style offense and become a competent NFL-ready quarterback. But Mariota had the tight mechanics that translate well and didn't need to be wholly rebuilt. Naturally, his first NFL game resulted in a perfect 158.3 rating. If Watson can be anywhere near as good as quickly, the Texans will have found a quarterback that can capitalize on the team's playoff window.
The question for the Texans on Watson is to figure out when to take Watson. If the team feels he is the perfect fit, 25th overall is a small price to pay. However, if it's more about potential than being certain, waiting to see if Watson falls is the right play.
Sep 10, 2016; Tempe, AZ, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Patrick Mahomes II (5) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Sun Devil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
2. Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
Searching for the right quarterback in the 2017 NFL Draft is all about options for the Houston Texans. The team needs to have the right options on the board at the right time to find a quarterback that can supplant Tom Savage and Brandon Weeden.
Another one of those in-between options like Deshaun Watson is Patrick Mahomes of Texas Tech. He should still be on the board late in the first round when the Texans' first selection comes up and he could be on the board in the second round or, if he experiences a bit of a fall, the third. That kind of relative value gives the Texans the ability to pick and choose if a player like Mahomes is available when another like Watson is not.
While Mahomes played in a collegiate offense that was far from pro-ready, he played high-scoring football with limited mistakes. His 2016 season resulted in 41 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions.
More importantly, Mahomes has demonstrated growth as a passer. Starting with a completion percentage of just 56.8 percent as a freshman in 2014, Mahomes increased that percentage each year. In 2015, Mahomes managed a completion percentage of 63.5 and he completed 65.7 percent in 2016. His yards per attempt also topped out at a respectable 8.5 in 2016 and his 1.7 percent of passes resulting in an interception was his lowest of his collegiate career.
This isn't to say that Mahomes is a guaranteed growth prospect as an NFL quarterback, but he has shown he can put in the work to get better and produce. That is an important trait in the NFL where those who rely on their athleticism quickly fall by the side of the road.
The bottom line for Mahomes is that he has a high ceiling and could develop into one of the more exciting players in the NFL. Quoting an NFC executive from his NFL.com draft profile, "If it clicks for him and he's coachable, I think he could become a special quarterback."
The Texans just have to make sure that it clicks and clicks early.
Sep 24, 2016; Tempe, AZ, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Davis Webb (7) passes the ball against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Sun Devil Stadium. The Sun Devils won 51-41. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
3. Davis Webb, Cal
One of the less well-followed quarterbacks coming out in the 2017 NFL Draft, Davis Webb should not be overlooked. While other like Pat Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer, and Mitch Trubisky are widely touted as the top prospects, Webb has bit more relative value. Some teams may love him and others may let him pass, but someone will give him a chance and he will succeed in the NFL. That team should be the Houston Texans.
NFL.com's Lance Zierlein compares Davis Webb to Brock Osweiler, which isn't going to sit well with some Texans fans, but the team needs to look further than superficial comparisons. At a cerebral position like quarterback, Webb (a graduate student at Cal) has a bit of an edge. Graduating from Texas Tech before moving onto Cal, Webb is entering the NFL with a healthy dose of maturity that other quarterbacks entering after a couple of seasons or three simply don't have. It also helps that he's reportedly quite intelligent.
In today's NFL, intelligence matters. A player like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning is not made simply on football intelligence, but also by being able to understand the greater concepts of the game and how they apply immediately on the field. Intelligence makes a field general.
There's no guarantee that Webb is a field general in making, but he is a player with the raw ability to become one. His field vision is superior to a lot of other quarterbacks in his draft class and his development is further along after four years as a collegiate passer. If he can take coaching, which seems possible after a quick transfer from Texas Tech to California and his mental ability, Webb is a logical choice for a team that needs a quarterback who can ultimately lead the team from under center.
With completion percentages of 61.2 percent and above in his three seasons as the primary starter and just 12 interceptions to 37 touchdowns in 2016, Webb has shown he can develop in a new system and deliver high levels of production. As a second-to-fourth-round quarterback prospect, Webb could be great value and immediately improve the quarterback prospects for the Texans.
