National Football League

How to beat the Chiefs: 4 key vulnerabilities that could stop a perfect season

Published Nov. 7, 2024 4:16 p.m. ET

The Chiefs, as you may have heard, are the NFL's last unbeaten team, now 8-0 and almost halfway to the elusive perfect regular season.

The 1972 Dolphins, the only team to pull off an undefeated full season, opened that year with a win against the Chiefs, having beaten them in the playoffs the previous season. So any Chiefs run at perfection is ultimately a slow-burn revenge mission, and a difficult one at that.

Do the Chiefs even want to stay perfect? Kansas City has had two teams open 9-0, and both lost the 10th game. The 2003 Chiefs finished 13-3 and lost in their first playoff game; the 2013 Chiefs dropped five of seven to finish 11-5 and lost in the wild-card round.

So we're here to remind you how remarkably unlikely a perfect season will be, no matter how good the Chiefs might be. They can be the best team in the NFL and win an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl and still fall well short of perfection. There's no shame in that. Here are a few vulnerabilities to watch, relative weak spots that could be exposed in an eventual loss to spoil that bid at 20-0.

Turnover margin

The Chiefs are not a good turnover team. They have forced exactly eight takeaways in eight games, and on turnover margin, they're tied for 24th this season at minus-4. This is not a new development: Kansas City won a Super Bowl last year despite finishing 28th in turnover margin, and did the same in 2022 while ranking 22nd in turnover margin. Last year's champs forced 17 takeaways in 17 regular-season games.

They're good enough that they don't need to win on turnovers. Since Patrick Mahomes took over as starter in 2018, they're 37-2 when they simply force more turnovers than they commit. Dead even on turnovers? They're 24-6, winning 80 percent of the time. Even when they're minus-1, as they were in Monday's overtime win over the Bucs, they're 17-9, winning almost two out of three times.

But get them to minus-2, and it's a conversation you can have. When the Chiefs are minus-2 or worse under Mahomes, they're 5-7. That's actually really good under the circumstances, as NFL teams that are minus-2 or worse are 9-41 this year, winning just 18 percent of the time.

Why we bring this up: The Chiefs' remaining schedule includes three of the NFL's best teams in turnover margin. In two weeks, they face the Bills, tied for the league's best at plus-11 in turnovers, and later they'll face the Chargers (plus-9) and Steelers (plus-10). All three are leading their divisions right now, and the net turnover differential between the Chiefs and those teams is enough to bring those rare minus-2 scenarios into play.

Mahomes' interceptions are up this year, enough that he was tied for the league lead with nine before this past weekend. It's rare he has more than one in a game — it's happened only 14 times in his seven-year career, but the Chiefs are just 8-6 in those games. So if a team can pick him off a couple times, there's a chance.

Keep them under 20 points

Much has been written about how the Chiefs have won as much with their defense this year. Before Monday night, they'd won 13 games in a row and had scored 28 points or fewer in all 13 games, the only such streak in NFL history. They scored 30 points on Monday, but needed overtime to do it.

All this is to say that these Chiefs have not been a dominant team offensively over the past two years. At their scoring peak, from the start of 2020 to their Week 8 bye in 2022, Kansas City scored 40 or more points 11 times in 46 games, but since then, they've scored 40 or more just once in their past 42 games.

"Hey, get them to score less" is not an innovative strategy, but the key number to aim for is 20 points or fewer. When the Chiefs scored 20 or fewer last year, they were just 4-6. Only one team has held them under 20 this year, and it's the Chargers, who have the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense and lost 17-10 in their first meeting.

The Chiefs' remaining schedule includes four games against the NFL's top three scoring defenses — a rematch with the Chargers, a Week 17 showdown with the Steelers and two against the Broncos, this week and the season finale. That game at Buffalo next weekend — a rematch of last year's playoff showdown — would also put Kansas City against the league's No. 8 scoring defense.

Kickoff return concerns

The Bucs' Bucky Irving had a 46-yard kickoff return Monday night, the second-longest the Chiefs have allowed over the past three seasons. Special teams coordinator Dave Toub is one of the best in the league, and Kansas City has an 80 percent touchback rate with Harrison Butker, so the team's opponents have only returned nine kickoffs all season.

But on those returns, they're averaging 30 yards per return, the eighth-highest average in the league. The Saints' Rashid Shaheed had a 38-yard return against the Chiefs and the 49ers' Isaac Guerendo had a 35-yarder. The entire league has given up only three kickoff return touchdowns all season, and Kansas City hasn't allowed one since 2020, but it's something to watch. Keep an eye out for Bills rookie Brandon Codrington in two weeks.

The threat of a Mahomes injury

It's almost cheating to have an undefeated season end because of a quarterback injury, but Mahomes had a scare early in the fourth quarter Monday night when he scrambled to his right, then pulled up and tossed a touchdown to Samaje Perine. He was down on the field with an ankle injury and initially had to be helped to the sideline before finishing the walk on his own. He ended up not missing a snap, but the concern was enough to have TV showing backup Carson Wentz throwing on the sideline.

Mahomes has been remarkably healthy in his NFL career, missing only two starts in seven seasons due to injury — in 2019 with a dislocated kneecap. He sat out the regular-season finales in 2020 and 2023 because the Chiefs had clinched everything they could, but otherwise, he's been able to play every game.

Could the Chiefs win with Wentz? He's 3-5 as a starter since the start of 2022 in stints with the Commanders and Rams. The Chiefs split the two games Mahomes missed in 2019, and that was with Matt Moore filling in at quarterback. Mahomes' current ankle injury won't sideline him, but it might limit his scrambling ability and the elusiveness that allows him to extend plays and improvise as few quarterbacks can.

Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

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