National Football League

How Bucs, Chiefs, Rams, more prepare for wild-card rematches

Published Jan. 13, 2022 10:04 a.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Welcome to NFL Super Wild Card Weekend, in which five of the six games are rematches of matchups from the regular season.

If you’ve played long enough in the NFL, you understand how preparation for rematches unfolds inside the building, and I want to give you some insight into that process.

When scouting an opponent, it’s typical to focus on the previous four weeks of film, but always with an eye toward season-long tendencies in certain situations. So as we look back at some of these rematches, it’s good to assess individual matchups and identify areas of strength or weakness, but also realize how many of these teams are completely different now.

The Bengals beat the Raiders 32-13 in Week 11. Are the Raiders the same team today? Absolutely not. They’ve won four in a row with their defense harassing quarterbacks and Derek Carr playing some of the best ball of his career.

As a result, it’s important for the Bengals to review that game's film for individual matchup purposes, but I’d imagine there isn’t much the staff and players can take from the Raiders' scheme in that game and apply to this one.

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The Eagles and Bucs played way back in Week 6. The Bucs won 28-22. Three of the four leading receivers for Tampa Bay in that win were Antonio Brown (released), Leonard Fournette (injured) and Chris Godwin (injured). The Eagles' leading receiver, Zach Ertz, isn’t on the team anymore. Plus, with injuries to the Bucs and improvement in the overall play of the Eagles, it’s difficult to identify information from that matchup that will help us look at this game.

As division opponents, the Rams and Cardinals faced each other twice this season, in Week 4 and Week 14. Today, these two teams are nothing like the Week 4 versions. The Cardinals started 7-0 and finished 3-7. Their passing game blitzed the Rams' pass defense early and often in the first matchup. The run defense and passing attack are not as potent now.

That said, the Rams' Week 14 win over the Cardinals could give us some insight into the matchup this weekend, as it happened just outside that four-week mark, and the teams appear to still be playing close to how they did in that matchup.

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Of course, there’s no set policy in football about four weeks of film review. It could be five or six depending on the team, but four weeks is the general practice because that tends to be the time frame in which adjustments are made to scheme and personnel.

For example, let’s say you’re proficient at four verticals on third-and-long against cover-2. In one week, you might get two opportunities to run this play, and let's say it works. Because you ran it only twice, entering the next week, the opposing defense is aware of it, but there are a variety of other schemes for them to defend.

Then let's say that in the second week, you have two or three opportunities to run four verticals, and it hits two of those three times. Entering week three, you’ve hit on four of five attempts in the previous two games.

In the third game, you have the attention of the defense. Your opponent will focus on it more in preparation, but again, we're talking about only five plays out of 120 from the previous two games. In that third game, you get three opportunities to call four verticals, and it works once. That’s not enough failure for you to stop calling the play, as it’s still efficient on third-and-long.

Now, entering the fourth week, it’s very clear to the opposing defense what your plan is on third-and-long. The defense adjusts, but you continue to call four verticals because it’s working. Well, this time you go 0-for-2, making you 1-for-5 the previous two weeks.

It's time to figure out another scheme in those situations.

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Now let’s look at how teams prepare for rematches with attention on scheme design and individual player preparation. The Patriots and Bills play this weekend for the third time in seven weeks. The Chiefs beat the Steelers just a month ago.

I have some experience with this, as I’ve played division opponents multiple times within a month, and, specific to the playoffs, my 2012 Vikings squad played the Packers in Week 17 at home, and then six days later, we traveled to Green Bay for a wild-card game. In 2013, my Chiefs team played the Colts in Week 16 in Kansas City before heading to Indianapolis to face the Colts again on wild-card weekend.

The first order of business when preparing for a rematch (particularly within that four-week or so period) is understanding why your team won or lost the previous game. Was it scheme-related? Individual matchup issues? Injuries? Weather (see: the first Bills-Patriots game)? Something else?

If you properly identify the key factors in the outcome, then tweaks and changes can be made. Granted, the winning team is unlikely to make significant changes because why would they? Things worked the first time around. However, your opponent also knows what worked the first time, so should you add wrinkles? If so, how many wrinkles? You don’t want to change so much that you get away from what worked the first time.

This is why identifying the reasons behind a victory is also important. Did you win because of your scheme or was it more individual matchups? If you’re the Chiefs, and you beat the Steelers 36-10 in your first matchup, it seems to me that the answer is both. Your scheme was good, and your players were outstanding.

But the Chiefs didn’t have Travis Kelce in that game, and Tyreek Hill had only two receptions. So going into the rematch and knowing that the Steelers understand how the Chiefs attacked them, there doesn’t seem to be much incentive to make changes because Kansas City won the individual matchups the first time around.

Now, the losing team is the one we would expect to make more changes. Your game plan did not work. Your players did not win their matchups. But alas, your opponent knows this also. They should be able to anticipate how you’re going to adjust.

And we go around in a circle again.

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A great example of this comes from the College Football Playoff championship on Monday. In the first matchup, Alabama’s offense had its way with Georgia's defense, as the Bulldogs didn’t win individual matchups and played too soft in the back end. The adjustment for Georgia was to generate more pressure on Alabama’s quarterback with pressure packages and movement up front.

It worked! On offense, the Bulldogs slogged through most of the game, but they found better run plays, and of course, their QB made some big throws. Georgia made the key adjustments in just one month.

Now, of course, all of this is moot if players don’t execute or can’t win one-on-one matchups. You might just get beaten at the line of scrimmage or turn the ball over or any of the other random things that can happen in a game.

But from a player perspective, you prepare the same way for your opponent. You watch the film, gather tendencies, and practice with those in mind.

In 2013, my Chiefs squad lost to the Colts in Week 16. I allowed a sack on a pass-rush move called a push-pull, on which the defender pushes me backward, and when I go to anchor, he pulls me forward if my weight is not balanced. That was then on film as a weakness, and I had to fix that weakness before opponents would stop using it against me.

When I prepared to face the same defensive line a second time, I spent the entire week working on stopping this pass-rush move. And I didn’t get beaten on it until the final play of the game (ugh). Luckily, Alex Smith was still able to throw the ball on time.

It’s worth noting here that there’s a slight difference between the four-week cycle of scheme and individual matchups. Players have favorite go-to moves, whether that's a pass rush or style of route-running, and those often do not change all season. Players do what they're comfortable with, no matter if their opponent knows it's coming. And the best players win either way.

In the end, it’s difficult to be definitive in breaking down how a previous game might matter for a rematch. But I hope I was able to enlighten you just a bit about what goes into NFL rematch preparation.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.