National Football League

How the Chiefs are excelling at one specific strategy of the Patriots' dynasty

Updated Oct. 17, 2024 3:54 p.m. ET

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Henry McKenna

NFL Reporter

The Kansas City Chiefs' 5-0 start looks perfect. But their team is not. Their record doesn't tell the story of the difficulties they've experienced to get there. They are, after all, underdogs heading to San Francisco to play the 3-3 49ers on Sunday.

Patrick Mahomes, in particular, has had as slow a start to any season in his career, with six touchdowns to six interceptions. His interception percentage (3.8) is the highest it has ever been in a single season. His air yards per attempt (6.78) are lower than they've ever been. His passer rating is the lowest it has ever been (since his rookie year, when he played just one game). His sack rate (5.33) is the highest. His yards per game is the lowest.

It's the worst version of Mahomes that we've ever seen. And I'd argue it's not just the stats. It's the film, too, where Mahomes' work underwhelms compared to the high standard he set for himself in previous seasons.

Why?

It's complicated, obviously. The Chiefs haven't established a starter at left tackle, where rookie Kingsley Suamataia lost his job to Wanya Morris. Tight end Travis Kelce has picked up his production in the past two games, but on the season, he has just 24 catches for 228 yards and zero touchdowns because he had virtually no production over the first three games. He's had an uptick in targets over the past two games because Kansas City has dealt with injuries to receivers Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown, and running back Isiah Pacheco.

But again, the Chiefs are somehow undefeated.

How? How in the freaking world?!

It's the stuff of dynasties. 

It's the stuff that the New England Patriots used to do under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. 

"Bill always emphasized that football season starts after Thanksgiving. He would say that," said Brian Hoyer, former Patriots quarterback and current analyst on NBC Sports Boston. "And so I think the whole point was to figure out who you were, be in contention, and then after Thanksgiving, start to really climb that mountain to be the team that was going to compete for a championship."

In some ways, the Chiefs are exceeding what the Patriots once did. The Belichick Patriots started with a 2-2 record in the final four seasons in which they made the Super Bowl (and won three of them). The Chiefs have started slowly these past few years, but thanks in part to friendly schedules, they have never started a season worse than 2-2 (back in 2021). A slow start for the Patriots looked like a blowout at the hands of the Chiefs (like in 2014). A slow start for the Chiefs looks like a narrow defeat to the Lions (in 2023) — and a bad set of efficiency statistics for Mahomes (in 2024).

Should the undefeated Chiefs be underdogs against the 49ers?

This season, the Chiefs have an opportunity to definitively exceed the Patriots in one area, and that would be by completing the first three-peat of the Super Bowl era. 

Andy Reid and Mahomes have figured out how to win in this part of the season, whereas New England often took its biggest losses early in the year. But in both cases, it's all about peaking at the right time. And that's quite the luxury, because many quarterbacks and coaches are worried about simply keeping their jobs for another season.

"Everybody else builds it towards making the playoffs and all of that stuff," former Patriots safety Devin McCourty told FOX Sports. "The Kansas City Chiefs are saying, ‘How can we have the best team that we possibly can by January?' Because that's what we're going to need." 

That's why the Patriots started slow and finished strong in the late 2010s. It seemed intentional. Hoyer said he doesn't remember Belichick emphasizing that expression — "The football season starts after Thanksgiving" — before their second big run of Super Bowls. It became a core part of their identity from 2014 and beyond. At the beginning, back in 2014, when the Chiefs famously blew out the Patriots on Monday Night Football, the Patriots weren't exactly comfortable with the slow starts.

"It was miserable in there when we were 2-2 and we lost games. There was no, ‘We'll be OK,'" McCourty said. "It was a sense of urgency that it felt like people are gonna get cut. Moves are gonna get made."

Eventually, McCourty earned a captaincy role that provided him more access to Belichick, who explained that September — at least for New England — was an extension of the preseason. Because of the limited practice and on-field time due to league rule changes, Belichick was OK with settling the depth chart and the staples in the game plan.

There was this impression — at least from the outside — that Belichick was in the lab experimenting with his roster. And, perhaps, he was at peace with the experimentation leading to losses. That wasn't it.

"I don't think you're losing because you're trying to experiment too much, and I don't think you use that as a time to just go ahead and throw something on the wall so it sticks right," said Joe Judge, former Patriots assistant head coach. "But at the same time, when you're working through something you think is going to work, you find out throughout the process that, OK, we have to adjust this, tweak that. And it kind of naturally changes itself and evolves."

It never hurt that Belichick, a defensive guru, could lean on Brady to keep the ship steady when everything seemed to be coming undone.

"It's like the Bulls having Michael Jordan. Like, yeah, obviously it helps," Judge said.

And that's where things connect back to Reid and Mahomes, the foundational pieces at the base of everything the Chiefs have done and will do in this dynasty. It's about the quarterback as much as anything. 

That's why Mahomes would be the natural first pick among current players for anyone starting a franchise. 

"How could you not pick Mahomes?" Judge said. "Who else would it be? This guy, he just wins, and he improvises. He's done it different ways over the years. He's a tremendous competitor. He's a great teammate. Everyone loves him and respects him. And, I mean, how could you pick against this guy?"

Nick Wright: 'Patrick Mahomes is the best QB ever and Tom Brady is the GOAT'

That's the same confidence the Patriots had in Brady.

"Having Tom Brady was always so similar to Mahomes," Hoyer said. "Like you knew that he was going to have a certain standard for himself and the team that eventually you would get to."

Kelce will be a big part of what the Chiefs do going forward. It seems like the Chiefs were trying to rest him to start the season. And they will probably try to do that for as long as possible. But it's only a matter of time before he and Mahomes flip the switch.

"What [Mahomes] is able to do is what Tom Brady was able to do in never being out of any game," Hoyer said. "I think it's also the accountability, like both sides of the ball — and I'll include special teams — of making sure you keep the right coaches there, and then making sure each side holds each other accountable." 

No one is alarmed at the way Mahomes is playing.

Not in Kansas City. Not in New England. Not anywhere, really, given the Chiefs' outstanding record. 

There wasn't panic when Kelce didn't look like himself to start the season.

There won't be panic, even if the Chiefs lose to the 49ers on Sunday in blowout fashion.

The scary thing about the Chiefs is that they can get away with playing their worst offensive football and still manage to win on any given Sunday. That's a credit to defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who is sort of the Josh McDaniels of the Chiefs. (McDaniels, of course, led the Patriots offense for Belichick for the better part of a decade and Spags has been the equivalent on defense for Reid since 2019.) Spagnuolo's elite defensive unit has given the Chiefs plenty of runway to figure out how to get their offensive plan together.

And the tricky thing for Kansas City has been that, most weeks, its offensive plan has actually come further undone by injuries. That's why the Chiefs have resorted to bringing back familiar faces in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kareem Hunt. They know Reid's system and can step in. But it's not 2018 or even 2022 anymore — those two playmakers are hardly in their prime.

"When I watch him, he just doesn't look comfortable," Hoyer said of Mahomes. "You know, the timing's off. Some of their off-schedule plays aren't working, and so you know you're trying to get that fixed. You got a rookie in [Xavier] Worthy you're trying to incorporate. And now you got some injuries. There's a lot of moving parts."

The Patriots were famous for taking away what their opponent does best. Double team Calvin Johnson or Aaron Donald. Load the box for Derrick Henry. That's Belichick's defensive way of thinking: Make the opponent fight with their left hand. 

But Reid is an offensive-minded coach. He spends his time figuring out how to cut off his opponents' right hand. He wants to attack, attack, attack. And maybe that's what these slow starts have been about. Reid is sharpening his sword and circling. He's shuffling his feet and getting ready to strike. And most importantly, he's waiting for the right moment.

"The Chiefs — they kind of update who they are and go along and then figure it out along the way," Hoyer said.

It sounds familiar. It sounds like what the Patriots used to do. 

But you might even argue — right now — the Chiefs are better at it. In fact, they're so good at it that it's hard to see them not making history by winning a third consecutive Super Bowl.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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NFL - Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers - 10/20/2024

Henry McKenna