How the Broncos can upset the Patriots in Sunday's must-win showdown
The New England Patriots have established themselves as the best team in the AFC, and possibly in all of football. They’ve done so without Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis and Rob Ninkovich at different points in the season, proving that not even their own absences can derail their impressive 2016 campaign.
Now, they pay the defending Super Bowl champions a visit in what’s undoubtedly a pivotal game – albeit more so for the Denver Broncos. The Patriots can clinch the AFC East and a first-round bye with a win, but those are near-certainties to happen at some point in the next three weeks regardless.
For the Broncos, on the other hand, a playoff berth hangs in the balance, making Sunday’s AFC Championship rematch a must-win. A loss would drop them to 8-6, with the Chiefs and Broncos on the schedule to close out the year. A win would allow them to keep pace with the Dolphins and possibly the Texans and Titans, keeping them in the postseason hunt.
Needless to say, playing the Patriots in a must-win game isn’t ideal. However, the Broncos can send the Pats home to New England with a loss – just as they did last year in the postseason. The key is stopping Tom Brady and the offense, which is easier said than done.
The most obvious aspect of this game that the Broncos have to take advantage of is Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware getting pressure on Brady. The Patriots’ offensive line is much-improved since the last time they met, which should make generating pressure more difficult. Brady was sacked four times in the AFC title game – 2.5 by Von Miller – and it’s a huge reason the Broncos were able to win.
If Miller, who’s almost guaranteed to be chipped by LeGarrette Blount and tight ends, is able to hit Brady a handful of times this week, it’ll establish the tempo of the game. Brady won’t be able to hold the ball, he’ll get rid of it quicker than he’d like, and he won’t feel comfortable in the pocket. Ware, meanwhile, has to take advantage of one-on-one matchups when New England sends help to Miller’s side.
This all sounds great and easy to do, but it’s not. It’s especially difficult when the Patriots figure to run the ball plenty, essentially minimizing the impact Miller, Ware and Shane Ray can have on the game. The Patriots are notorious for changing up their game plan dramatically from week to week, throwing it 50 times one game and 25 the next.
As a result, the Broncos will need to stuff the run. Derek Wolfe, Sylvester Williams and Jared Crick will need to get off their blocks and close up running lanes, forcing the Patriots to throw the ball when behind the sticks. That may sound counter-intuitive, seeing as Brady plays quarterback, but the Patriots don’t excel in generating big plays. They throw short passes and rely on yards after the catch, especially with Gronkowski out. That sort of game plan doesn’t translate when facing third-and-8.
Knowing how the Patriots move the ball on offense, the Broncos should feel comfortable playing man-to-man with bump-and-run coverage on the outside. Chris Harris Jr. matches up perfectly with Julian Edelman, Aqib Talib can handle the bigger Malcolm Mitchell and Bradley Roby has the speed to stay with Chris Hogan. The Patriots won’t beat you over the top, so playing Cover 1-Robber should be a staple on Sunday.
The biggest issue for the Broncos comes when they’re on offense. Trevor Siemian isn’t a great quarterback, but he has played well in recent weeks. In his past four starts, Siemian has eight touchdowns and three interceptions with a passer rating of 93.2. those are certainly good enough numbers to win football games, but the Broncos went 1-3. He got little help from his running backs in most of those games, which is a huge problem for Denver.
Not having C.J. Anderson hurts their offense greatly. In their last six games, the Broncos have rushed for 439 yards – or 73 yards per game. Against the Titans, they had 18 yards on the ground. That’s abysmal and forced the Broncos to get one-dimensional, which doesn’t make Siemian any better, obviously.
The Broncos will need to hit a couple of big plays to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, which is difficult against the Patriots’ bend-don’t-break defense. Malcolm Butler has looked pedestrian at times this season, particularly against bigger receivers like Brandon Marshall.
Denver can win on defense – I actually expect them to. Their corners match up extremely well with New England’s receivers, and the absence of Gronk will be felt in this one more than any others. It’s on offense that the Broncos need to succeed. They can’t afford to become reliant on the passing game, particularly if they get behind early. Hit Brady early and often and establish the tone for the rest of the game – that’s Denver’s key to winning at home.
