National Football League

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints: Prediction, odds, picks

Updated Oct. 19, 2023 10:44 a.m. ET

The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) are slight favorites (-1) over the New Orleans Saints (3-3) in this Week 7 AFC South vs. NFC South showdown.

The Jaguars have won three games straight, including a 37-20 win over the Indianapolis Colts last weekend. The Saints were defeated 20-13 by the Houston Texans.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Jaguars and Saints — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from Sam Panayotovich.

Jaguars vs. Saints Odds & Betting Lines

Jaguars vs Saints Betting Information updated as of October 15, 2023, 10:33 PM ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Jaguars	-1	-105	-115	41.5	-110	-110

Jaguars vs. Saints Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Jacksonville (-1)
Pick OU: Under (41.5)
Prediction: Jacksonville 23 - New Orleans 16

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Expert Sam Panayotovich

We all know Trevor Lawrence isn’t healthy.

Jacksonville’s quarterback is "optimistic" he’ll be able to play Thursday night in Louisiana, but I’m "realistic" about his limitations if he goes. A knee injury with short rest isn’t ideal for mobility purposes, and it’ll be much easier to contain the Jags offense if Lawrence is playing around 70%.

Then there’s the Saints.

New Orleans has cracked 20 points once in six games, the lone time being a 34-0 pummeling of a Patriots team that basically gift wrapped the Saints two touchdowns via Mac Jones interceptions. Points are almost optional in New Orleans games and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon.

Take the "Under."

PICK: Under 40 points scored by both teams combined

How to Watch Jacksonville vs. New Orleans

Game Date: Thursday, October 19, 2023
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: Watch on Amazon Prime Video

Jaguars vs. Saints Recent Matchups

Over their last five meetings, New Orleans has four wins against Jacksonville.
In their last five head-to-head matchups, New Orleans has compiled 134 points against Jacksonville, while allowing only 87 points.

Jacksonville Betting Info

Jacksonville is 4-2-0 against the spread this year.
When playing as at least 1-point favorites this season, the Jaguars have an ATS record of 3-1.
Jacksonville contests this year have eclipsed the over/under 50% of the time (three times in six games with a set point total).
When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Jaguars are 3-1, picking up a win 75% of the time.
Jacksonville has a 3-1 record (winning 75% of its games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -110 or shorter.
Looking at this matchup's moneyline, the Jaguars' implied win probability is 52.4%.

Jaguars Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	223.8 (1,343)	12
Rush yards	113.5 (681)	16
Points scored	23.7 (142)	7
Pass yards against	270.3 (1,622)	31
Rush yards against	75.3 (452)	3
Points allowed	20.3 (122)	15

Jacksonville's Key Players

Offense

On the ground, Travis Etienne averages 4.0 yards per attempt (22nd in the NFL) and 75.2 yards per game for 451 total rushing yards (sixth in the NFL). He has scored five rushing touchdowns this season.
He has also caught 21 passes (on 24 targets) for 172 receiving yards with zero touchdowns. He's averaging 28.7 receving yards and 3.5 catches per game.
Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 1,439 yards (ninth in the NFL), seven touchdowns and three interceptions this year. He is averaging 239.8 yards per game and 6.9 per attempt, while completing 67.1%.
He's also rushed for 147 yards (second on the Jaguars) without scoring a touchdown on the ground, while averaging 24.5 rushing yards per game.
In six games played, Christian Kirk is averaging 64.0 yards and 5.5 receptions per game on the way to 384 receiving yards and 33 catches. He's been targeted 49 times, and has two receiving touchdowns.
Calvin Ridley has 26 catches for 363 yards and two touchdowns. He's been targeted 44 times in the air attack, and averages 4.3 receptions and 60.5 yards through six games played.

Defense

Over on the defensive side, Foyesade Oluokun has 67 tackles and 4.0 TFL in 2023. His tackle total leads the Jaguars and is third in the NFL.
Josh Allen has 21 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and seven sacks this season.
Darious Williams has totaled 23 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and three interceptions this year.
So far this season, Andre Cisco has 32 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and three interceptions. He's third on the Jaguars in tackles.

New Orleans Betting Info

New Orleans has covered the spread one time over six games with a set spread.
This season, the Saints won ATS in their only game as an underdog of 1 point or more.
Games involving New Orleans have yet to hit the over once this year.
The Saints won the only game they've played as the underdog this season.
New Orleans has played as an underdog of -110 or more once this season and won that game.
The Saints have a 52.4% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Saints Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	216.7 (1,300)	15
Rush yards	95.8 (575)	22
Points scored	18.2 (109)	23
Pass yards against	182.0 (1,092)	5
Rush yards against	96.3 (578)	9
Points allowed	16.0 (96)	5

New Orleans' Key Players

Offense

Derek Carr is averaging 6.5 passing yards per attempt (25th in the NFL) and 216.5 yards per game this year, completing 65.0% of his passes on the way to 1,299 total yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions through six games.
Rashid Shaheed has put together a 2023 stat sheet that includes 16 catches for 298 yards and two receiving touchdowns in six games played. He has been on the receiving end of 27 targets and is averaging 2.7 receptions per game.
In six games played this season, Chris Olave has 32 catches (5.3 receptions per game on 8.8 targets per game) for 414 yards and one receiving touchdown.
Alvin Kamara puts up 66.3 rushing yards per game through three games (199 total yards), with one rushing touchdown.
Kamara also has 86 receiving yards (28.7 per game) on 23 catches (7.7 per game). He has been targeted 25 times while he is still trying for his first receiving touchdown.

Defense

In 2023, Carl Granderson has put up 4.5 sacks to go with 7.0 TFL and 23 tackles over six games.
Demario Davis' stat sheet includes 38 tackles, 4.0 TFL, two sacks, and two passes defended.
Alontae Taylor has 1.0 sack (fourth on the Saints) as well as 4.0 TFL and 27 tackles in the 2023 season.
Pete Werner has put up 0.5 sacks to go with 43 tackles and one interception over six games.