Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans: 'Friday' Fact or Fiction
Nov 19, 2015; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Antonio Andrews (26) is tackled by Jacksonville Jaguars middle linebacker Paul Posluszny (51) and strong safety Johnathan Cyprien (37), Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackle Abry Jones (right) and Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackle Tyson Alualu (right) at EverBank Field. The Jacksonville Jaguars won 19-13. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports
With hope all but lost, the Jacksonville Jaguars are just trying to avoid a nationally televised disaster tonight against the Tennessee Titans.
It’s a tried and true tradition over the last 5 years for fans of the Jacksonville Jaguars – the week 8 audible sigh that indicates yet another lost season.
It might sound dramatic, but the Jacksonville Jaguars have shown nothing to indicate they can turn around the season. Sitting at 2-4, the Jaguars have looked bad in essentially every game, including the debacle last week at home against the Oakland Raiders. In a measuring stick matchup against their AFC West rebuild counterpart, the Jaguars looked outcoached and outmatched. Midway through his 4th season, head coach Gus Bradley has lost virtually all support from the fans and rightfully so – he’s the worst coach in the modern era of the NFL.
You could say this has nothing to do with tonight’s matchup against the Tennessee Titans, but as fans we put everything in context. The Titans were the worst team in the NFL last season. They had the number one overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. The Jaguars are in the 4th year of a complete rebuild with a completely revamped roster.
And yet, I have absolutely no confidence in the Jaguars heading into this Thursday night game. I’d wager the game is more likely a blowout in the Titans’ favor than a win for the Jaguars.
The Titans are far from a great team, but they have a quarterback who is finding his way after a rough start to the year and plenty of other things to hang their hat on. They have one of the top running backs in the league, a very good tight end, a terrific offensive line, and a defense that has kept them in games into the 4th quarter every week.
The Jaguars don’t have anything to hang their hat on right now. Mike Mularkey is going to smile from ear to ear along the sidelines tonight as he takes on his former team who opted to hire an inferior coach.
So what’s going to actually happen tonight when the Jaguars take the field on the road against a more composed Titans squad? Can they play well enough to help Gus Bradley keep his job another week? Click ahead to see my “rock solid” predictions:
Dec 6, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) is sacked by Tennessee Titans defensive end Jurrell Casey (99) during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Blake Bortles will throw an interception in the first half: FACT
Five.
That’s how many games over the last 22 that Blake Bortles has made it through without throwing an interception. In those games, the Jaguars are 3-2, but quite frankly it’s too small a sample size to really draw a conclusion on.
The fact that Bortles has played 36 games but doesn’t have enough performances without an interception to draw a statistically significant conclusion is not at all encouraging.
The narrative on Bortles has been a fairly consistent one – he’s downright awful early in games, but plays much better when he’s fast and loose in the second half. It’s one of the few narratives in the NFL that’s backed up by tape and stats:
The excuse in 2014 and 2015 was that the Jaguars had one of the worst defenses in the league and Bortles was forced to play from behind early. That’s not the case this year – the Jaguars have been within reach of every game except the pathetic blowout against the San Diego Chargers. The other 3 losses are squarely on the shoulders of Bortles for failing to produce.
At this point, it’s more shocking for Bortles to make it through a half of football without an interception. He’s thrown a career 44 interceptions, a mark that indicates he’s almost certainly going to throw the ball to the other team tonight. I’m going out on a very strong limb and saying it’ll happen early on in the contest.
Dec 6, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) carrie the ball during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Nissan Stadium. The Titans won 42-39. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Marcus Mariota will have 50+ yards rushing: FACT
Marcus Mariota has rushed for 50+ yards twice this season. The Titans won both of those games (2 of the last 3).
Last year, Mariota had success running the ball against the Jaguars. He had 29 yards on the ground and a touchdown in the Thursday night loss in 2015, followed by a whopping 112 yards rushing in a big win that included a 87 yarder that should’ve resulted in the entire Jacksonville defense sitting in a corner contemplating their existence.
The point being that the Jaguars are not good at stopping mobile quarterbacks, and Mariota in particular had the defense’s number last year. The Titans have a significantly better overall rushing attack this season thanks to DeMarco Murray and an improved offensive line, but I expect Mike Mularkey to do something that every opponent has done to Gus Bradley – outcoach him.
With the Jaguars likely gameplanning to stop Murray, I expect the Titans to heavily implement the read-option and get Mariota running quite a bit. The Jaguars added speed to the defense this offseason, but they still lack the athleticism in the linebacker corps to stop a good running quarterback.
If only they had drafted one of the top linebackers with blazing speed or something. Perhaps in the second round. Surely they would use him to try and help bolster the defense.
Whoops.
Nov 19, 2015; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Tennessee Titans tight end Delanie Walker (82) is defended by Jacksonville Jaguars middle linebacker Paul Posluszny (51) during an NFL football game at EverBank Field. The Jaguars defeated the Titans 19-13. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Delanie Walker will have a touchdown: FACT
While the Jaguars have had trouble stopping running quarterbacks, they’ve had even more trouble keeping opposing tight ends in check. That’s unfortunate, because Delanie Walker is one of the better ones in the league and he is a favorite target of Mariota.
Walker is averaging roughly 14 yards per catch and his 3 touchdowns put him around the same pace he’s had for his career. Mariota was objectively awful early this year, but he’s gotten better which means Walker should get more shots to produce. As the picture above indicates, that should be pretty easy to do if he’s going to be covered by Paul Posluszny. Schematically, it would be prudent for the Jaguars to try and prevent such a mismatch, but obvious and standard logic has not been the theme historically for this staff.
This prediction article has been heavily skewed in the negative arena, but can you really blame me? Or any of the fans?
Last year, the Jaguars had an explosive and exciting offense, but the defense was a dumpster fire. This year, the defense looks vastly improved, but Blake Bortles has regressed mightily and the pieces around him have failed to play at a high level. If it’s not one thing holding the team back, it’s something else. At this point, I’m directing the blame all the way to the top. The head coach has not done enough to prepare this team to win.
And it’s culminating tonight as Mike Mularkey chuckles through a decisive win with the Titans.
PREDICTION: Jaguars 13 – Titans 27
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