Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars: What Kind Of Market Will Johnathan Cyprien Have?

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 7:52 p.m. ET

Fansided, Joe Soriano/FanSided via NFL Spin Zone

Jacksonville Jaguars strong safety Johnathan Cyprien made a name for himself a year before free agency, despite his team’s struggles.

Johnathan Cyprien was the 33rd overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, but he looked like yet another Jacksonville Jaguars bust through his first three seasons. Although Cyprien managed more than 100 tackles, he didn’t look like a starting free safety. He rarely made plays on the ball and became known for being torched frequently. Cyprien had just two interceptions in his first three seasons, and he averaged less than four passes defended per season.

The Jaguars failed to win more than three games in the 2016 season, but one of their offseason strategies paid off. General manager Dave Caldwell made a concentrated effort to improve the defense. Prior to drafting two of the best prospects in the draft class, Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack, Caldwell signed Tashaun Gipson, Malik Jackson, and Prince Amukamara in free agency.

All three of those players were unsurprisingly successful in their first season in Jacksonville. Signing Gipson proved to be the biggest boost to Cyprien’s career to this point, because it allowed the former Florida International phenom to move to strong safety.

When Cyprien was a draft prospect, many analysts viewed him as a rangy centerfielder who could become an instinctive, ball-hawking mainstay at the free safety position in the NFL. Instead, Cyprien slotted in naturally at strong safety in 2016, becoming one of the Jaguars biggest standouts in what was otherwise a nightmare of a season.

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Cyprien’s breakout season comes before he’s due for a payday, but it’s not quite that straightforward. Most strong safeties don’t make big bucks, and it’s hard to say just how much other teams value Cyprien. This may seem unfair, but good players on bad defenses fail to generate much recognition, which hurts their value on the market. We’ve seen this in the past with edge rushers like Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett, and they play a position that is held in higher regard around the league than strong safety.

When asked about the chances of Cyprien re-signing with the Jaguars, ESPN.com’s Michael DiRocco responded that the team will likely allow the safety to test free agency, but could re-sign him. DiRocco added that if Cyprien stays in Jacksonville, he won’t sign a “big-money” contract.

At 26 years old, Cyprien is certainly in the prime of his career, but I’m sure there’s a fear that he was a one-hit wonder. Cyprien posted a career-high 127 tackles but none of the other basic box score stats stood out. Stats count for less these days, but an interception-machine like, say, Jairus Byrd is more likely to score a significant payday than someone like Cyprien who still sits at just two career interceptions.

Aug 11, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Brandon Marshall (15) is tackled by Jacksonville Jaguars strong safety Johnathan Cyprien (37) during the preseason game at MetLife Stadium. The Jets won, 17-13. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Furthermore, there are only three “in-the-box” safeties that make more than $6 million per year: Reshad Jones, Kam Chancellor, and Morgan Burnett. Not coincidentally, they are the three best strong safeties in the NFL.

Eric Berry can also play at strong safety, but the only other impending free agent safety who exclusively excels inside the box is Barry Church. ESPN Dallas’s Todd Archer sees Church as being one of the Cowboys three priorities to re-sign, with Darren McFadden and Brandon Carr being the other two. As far as I’m concerned, Church is better than those two players, and he and Carr are key players to re-sign for the Cowboys.

Assuming the Kansas City Chiefs re-sign or franchise Berry, who could be the best impending free agent, Cyprien would be one of the top draws on the market. The problem is that the marketplace may still be a little crowded if other young talents like Duron Harmon, TJ McDonald, and Tony Jefferson do not stay with their teams.

When Ward signed with the Denver Broncos in 2014, some saw him as the league’s premier strong safety. He ended up being one of the steals of the offseason, signing a contract worth just $22.5 million over four years that locked him up through the prime of his career. Ward also played on a not-so-great defense (Cleveland Browns), but he was also a better and more established player than Cyprien.

Based on last season’s performance only, Cyprien is the second-best impending free agent safety behind Berry, which theoretically makes him valuable. However, not only is he a huge risk given that he’s performed at a high level just once in his career, he also plays a position that is among the least valuable financially in the league right now. In a passing league, teams don’t seem to value safeties who can’t cover, and Cyprien’s biggest asset is his run defense. Additionally, teams will have to wonder if his precipitous decrease in missed tackles was his own doing or sheer luck, and this can be difficult to predict.

There may be a fear among some Jaguars fans that Cyprien will receive too much money from a team in free agency. That’s what Cyprien’s camp should be going for, and it wouldn’t make sense for them to a take a deal from the Jags before then. I get the sense that Tom Coughlin won’t want to make a decision on Cyprien before the market values him, and the Jaguars would be willing to let him walk if he does get overpaid.

The question is, who overpays him? I don’t see it happening. Nobody will pay Cyprien more than $6 million per year, because there just won’t be a huge market for a strong safety who had one big season. His best bet at a big payday in the future might be to sign a short-term deal and latch onto a team that will replicate his 2016 role with the Jaguars. What could work in his favor is a smaller bidding war among a few interested teams who initially saw Cyprien as a bargain-value star for their below-average defense.

A contract between $5 and $6 million per year is reasonable, but the percent guarantee, which is more interesting, will depend on how many years he’d like to sign for. That, of course, depends on how much he believes in his ability to capitalize on a strong 2017 (and perhaps 2018), and young players tend to bet on themselves.