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Jason McIntyre's Mock Draft 10.0: Draft Day is upon us

Updated Apr. 29, 2021 2:31 p.m. ET

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By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

One year of mock drafts, over-analysis, risers and fallers, and it all comes down to this: Mock Draft 10.0.

There are only a few changes late in the game, based primarily on the Mac Jones news (and more importantly, his gambling odds). 

Happy Draft Day, everyone!

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

This has been a lock since Lawrence led Clemson to the Natty as a freshman. The Jaguars won’t finish in the basement of the AFC South because of this pick.

2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

The BYU star will become the highest-drafted player to have worked for Doordash, something Wilson did during the pandemic so he could afford to drive to Orange County, California, to work with his QB coach.

3. San Francisco 49ers – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

This wouldn’t be my selection, and there’s a reason sports-radio callers in the Bay Area have been freaking out all week. Kyle Shanahan is making a massive gamble on a former 3-star recruit who started just 17 games at Alabama. 

4. Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

Arthur Smith loved two tight-end sets in Tennessee – the Titans ran the most plays in the NFL out of the 1-2-2 set – and Pitts is just too perfect to pass up. 

5. Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

The Sewell/Chase debate will rage at Bengals HQ until the moment they hand in the draft card. But they drafted Jonah Williams in the first round in 2019 to play left tackle, and they picked up Riley Reiff in free agency. Chase/Boyd/Higgins are a dangerous trio of receivers.

6. Miami Dolphins – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

What if Tua’s problem wasn’t the receivers, but the protection? Given his injury history, you can understand his happy feet in the pocket. None of Miami's linemen graded out well last year, and Sewell probably starts instantly. You can get Tua receivers later.

7. Detroit Lions – Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern

They can always grab a QB next year when the Lions are drafting in the top five. For now, fortify the offensive line, because we know they’re going to run the ball a ton next year. 

8. Carolina Panthers – Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama

The Panthers spent every pick in the draft last year on defense, and the trend continues here with the top cornerback on the board.

9. Denver Broncos – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

Trey Lance or Justin Fields? There’s a scenario where Fields drops. The trade for Teddy Bridgewater, plus Drew Lock, along with Justin Fields, makes for a crowded quarterback room.

10. Dallas Cowboys – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

Defensive-minded head coach Matt Rhule helps an improving unit with a potential shutdown corner in Horn, who has some comparable measurements (vertical, 40) to Jalen Ramsey. I believe Rhule’s familiarity with Sam Darnold and the team picking up his fifth-year option removes them from a QB here.

11. New York Giants – Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan

Could the Giants have the second-best offense and defense in the division? Problem is, Dallas has no defense, and Washington no offense. If Paye can contribute to an improved defense (assuming Adoree Jackson can stay healthy), this is a playoff team.

12. Philadelphia Eagles – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

The Eagles have the most picks in the draft but it feels like their front office is on tilt after the Pederson firing and Wentz trade. Build for the future or get Jalen Hurts weapons to be effective? 

13. Los Angeles Chargers – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC

It’s between Vera-Tucker and Christian Darrisaw, the latter of whom is more of a pure left tackle. Vera-Tucker’s short arm length (32 1/8 inches) has some teams thinking he’s a guard. A better athlete than Darrisaw, this is a coin toss. 

14. Minnesota Vikings – Christian Darrisaw, OL, Virginia Tech

No change here with Minnesota grabbing Darrisaw. There’s a need for an edge rusher, but Mike Zimmer’s Vikings also had five free-agent signings, and four were on defense. Keep an eye on a trade down for safety Trevon Moehrig, whom they love.

15. New England Patriots – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Does Belichick have the patience for a QB who has thrown just 318 passes in his college career? I’ve had the Patriots going QB in virtually every mock draft. It reminds me – remember when they lost Gronkowski and everyone thought they’d draft a tight end? Belichick didn’t. 

16. Arizona Cardinals – DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Arizona could reach for a corner here, but that seems like a position to attack in the middle rounds. But you put DeVonta Smith in this offense, where there’s no pressure to deliver with DeAndre Hopkins and 32-year old A.J. Green carrying the load … Kyler Murray MVP futures, anyone?

17. Las Vegas Raiders – Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

A report this week claimed Gruden is out on players who opted out of the 2020 season. If true, that hurts Micah Parsons, whose game is on-brand for the Raiders. Enter Collins, who might be the best linebacker from this draft in three years.

18. Miami Dolphins – Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami

When the world says the Dolphins need weapons in the first round … let me peg them two players in the trenches so the Dolphins don’t get bullied again in December.

19. Washington Football Team – Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

Ron Rivera’s defense has one weakness: Safety. They get the best safety in the class, and there’s a strong case to be made they have the best defense in the NFC. 

20. Chicago Bears – Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss

Andy Dalton will have better weapons than Mitch Tribusky did last year, as Moore can line up anywhere and give the offense a speedy dimension.

21. Indianapolis Colts – Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn State

Chris Ballard replaces Denico Autry with one of the most athletic defenders in the draft. 

22. Tennessee Titans – Greg Newsome III, CB, Northwestern

They could go receiver, but their offseason has been all about defense. Denico Autry and Bud Dupree up front. Janoris Jenkins and now a cornerback in the secondary.

23. New York Jets – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

No change here.  As long as the medical checks out, the Jets get perhaps the steal of the first round if Farley – who was my No. 1 CB in the draft before the back surgery – falls this far.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

No change here, either. After ranking last in rushing yards and YPC, the Steelers moved on from their OC and OL coach, and Harris will be the best RB they’ve had since Le’Veon Bell.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

In Parsons, Joe Schobert, and Myles Jack, is there a better group of LBs in the AFC South?

26. Cleveland Browns – Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State

No change for Cleveland. The Jadeveon Clowney addition gives the Browns a fantastic DL. Samuel has been steadily rising during the draft process and provides depth between Denzel Ward, Troy Hill and Greedy Williams in a young-but-talented secondary.

27. Baltimore Ravens – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

Sammy Watkins + Hollywood Brown + Rashod Bateman … if Lamar Jackson is gonna make the leap in the playoffs, they need to add a receiver. Jackson: one TD, four INTs in his last three playoff games.

28. New Orleans Saints – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

The Saints projected LBs are 32-year old Demario Davis, the undrafted Andrew Dowell, and their third-rounder from 2020 Zack Baun, who has 12 career tackles. So yes, LB is a major need.

29. Green Bay Packers – Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

Visions of cornerback Kevin King getting picked on by Tom Brady in the NFC title game influenced this pick.

30. Buffalo Bills – Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

The weakness of the defense is the front, and Barmore adds depth to a leaky defense that was 17th against the run last season.

31. Baltimore Ravens (via KC) – Dillon Radunz, OL, North Dakota State

Trading Orlando Brown Jr. leaves a void up front, and the versatile Radunz can play multiple positions.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Teven Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma State

What do you give a team that has everything? More protection for their soon-to-be 44-year old quarterback.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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