National Football League

Jets' Zach Wilson doing little to quiet concerns; AFC East analysis

Updated Oct. 25, 2022 7:13 p.m. ET

By Henry McKenna
FOX Sports AFC East Writer

It is getting harder and harder to imagine Zach Wilson as the New York Jets' quarterback of the future. The present? Sure. His record has shown that he is a game manager this season.

But in a Week 7 win over the Denver Broncos, he struggled with that side-car role. Yes, the Broncos defense has that effect on quarterbacks. It was uglier than that. Wilson made a number of unforced errors on simple throws that NFL quarterbacks must make. He finished with the second-lowest PFF grade on the team (45) last week.

In earnest, Wilson has just one strong quarter of quarterback play. His most impressive performance came in the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers when he helped the Jets win. During those 15 minutes, he was excellent: 10-of-12 for 128 yards and a touchdown. The problem? The Steelers are clearly one of the worst teams in the league. New York probably shouldn’t have been in a position where they needed to stage a comeback. And then there’s the matter of Pittsburgh’s defense, ranked third-worst in passing yards allowed (1,928).

But when you look at his greater body of work this year, you will see the Jets have actively avoided leaning on him.

His game against the Denver Broncos was the most egregious. He did not complete a single pass that traveled 10 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage. His average depth of target was 4.4 yards. He had a -7.7 EPA (expected points added) — meaning he cost his team 7.7 points per that metric.

It's not the time to make a final decision about whether Wilson was or was not a draft bust. There's still time for him to develop. But it's abundantly clear that — right now — he's not executing the offense at a high level. He remains a single-read quarterback, and one who isn't getting the protection he needs to make good decisions. He's overly reliant on his legs and his scrambling leads to turnovers and near-fumbles.

"It's why he's a No. 2 pick, that's why we're excited about his future, but at the same time, he does have to learn when enough is enough," coach Robert Saleh said Tuesday.

At times, Wilson seems to think he can pull off a Patrick Mahomes impression. He can't.

During the pre-draft process, Wilson was touted as a uniquely talented thrower — but his accuracy issues are making his arm strength irrelevant. All this adds up to an acute problem in New York.

They're looking at a daunting upcoming schedule:

Week 8: vs. New England Patriots

Week 9: vs. Buffalo Bills

Week 10: at Patriots

Week 11: vs. Chicago Bears

Week 12: at Minnesota Vikings

Week 13: at Bills

So I suppose I should restate that they are 5-2. This is not your average Jets team — not the kind that finds ways to lose. To the contrary, New York is finding ways to win.

But with the Jets offense needing its running game for explosive plays and general yardage, New York will have to make quick adjustments to help out Wilson. Because he sure as heck hasn’t proven he can get it done himself. And the Jets can’t afford a midseason collapse in an AFC East that appears extremely crowded, with — maybe — three of the NFL’s best teams (including the Jets).

Let’s jump into the other AFC East takeaways.

The Jets make a trade

What the Jets gave up: A conditional 6th-round pick

What the Jaguars gave up: James Robinson

Just hours after the Jets confirmed they would not have Hall for the rest of the season, they added James Robinson, who will be a great fit in the offense, with impressive play as a pass-protector and a between-the-tackles runner. And he's not irrelevant in the passing game as a receiver. He does a number of the things that Hall did for New York.

So GM Joe Douglas is betting that the Jets can have more offensive success with another feature running back. And given what we've seen from Wilson, Douglas is probably smart to stock up at running back in hopes the offense can continue to lean on that ground game. It's a one-year rental for Robinson, whose contract expires in 2023. But he will enter a deep pool of free-agent running backs. Maybe if the Jets want to give Hall a substantial cushion for recovery, they will retain Robinson this offseason, particularly if they find him a good fit on the team this year.

The conditional pick is likely to end up a fifth-rounder. If the Jets make the playoffs on a team based around their running game, then this move will make a ton of sense.

Why did Bill Belichick pull Mac Jones so quickly?

There will be time to examine what's next for the Patriots and Mac Jones in the coming days. Belichick has so far declined to name a starter for Week 8.

So let's discuss the strangeness of when and why Belichick pulled Jones on Monday night.

In the Patriots' 33-14 loss to the Chicago Bears, Belichick yanked Jones after three series, with Jones' final pass being an interception. Now, the Patriots coach has — in his murky way — said the situation isn't as simple as a benching. But on face value, that's what it looked like: the Patriots benched Jones for Bailey Zappe after three series.

"[Jones is] not happy about it and I understand it," quarterback Peyton Manning said on the ESPN2 broadcast of the game, via MassLive.com. "That’s a hard way to play quarterback, if you’re hesitant to make a play, knowing you’re gonna come out. That’s tough. My guess is that he didn’t know that was the deal. They have confidence in Zappe. He’s made some good decisions.

"But I hate that for a quarterback, to throw an interception — we’ve all thrown them. You don’t usually come out in the second quarter after that."

Bailey Zappe leads Patriots in embarrassing loss

Monday night proved to be a tough one for Mac Jones, who was benched in the New England Patriots' loss against the Chicago Bears. Bailey Zappe led the Patriots on two TD drives before struggling for the rest of the game. Craig Carton shares his thoughts.

Strangely, Belichick told ESPN at halftime that he planned for Jones to go back in the game. Jones didn’t, Belichick explained, because the game turned into a blowout. After the game, Belichick said Jones’ removal from the game had nothing to do with his interception — and was not a medical decision.

It seems Jones was on a snap count because of the ankle injury — or is in an open competition with Zappe.

Zappe finished the game and was OK until the fourth quarter when his two interceptions nose-dived New England’s already slim chances.

Jones handled his postgame media session with grace.

"Coach Belichick obviously did a really, really good job explaining it to me. And I knew what the plan was and the timing is the timing," Jones said. "We were on the same page. There's no hard feelings."

New England has given no indication about whether Jones will start in Week 8. Belchick wouldn't even commit to Jones as the starter when healthy.

"That's a hypothetical question so let's see where that is and what that is," Belichick said Tuesday.

Not only did Belichick provide confusing context for Jones' removal, but he has done nothing to stabilize the narrative around his two quarterbacks. Last week, there was the sense they had two solid options. Now, it's more complicated than that. And those complications arose when Belichick ended Jones' night on an interception.

Jones' ankle injury is what created this controversy. But Belichick has done nothing to manage it.

AFC Beast?

Bills: 5-1

Jets: 5-2

Dolphins: 4-3

Patriots: 3-4

Earlier in these takeaways, I touched on a point that probably requires greater exploration.

Is it crazy to think that three of these four teams are among the NFL's best? OK, it's a little crazy. But so far, these teams look very good.

The Jets defense is outstanding, fast and young. They've been so good that they've helped the offense overcome rough performances. While I think Wilson is sputtering and failing to prove himself, the Jets remain 5-2. They're winning.

The Dolphins may have suffered a three-game skid without Tua Tagovailoa, but it's clear that with their starting quarterback in the lineup, they are among the best teams in the league. They beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Tagovailoa's return. With Tua, the Dolphins beat the Buffalo Bills — and the New England Patriots.

And we can all agree the Bills are one of the NFL’s best teams, right? They’re the best, in my opinion.

Then there are the Patriots. They are the most suspect team in this division. But they have Bill Belichick, who finds a way to manufacture winning teams, even when they seemingly lack talent. Belichick has accidentally created a quarterback controversy by mishandling Mac Jones’ return from his ankle injury against the Chicago Bears. New England’s season could get messier. But Belichick will always be dangerous.

This division is very good. It will be fascinating to see how many of these teams make the playoffs.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @McKennAnalysis.