National Football League

Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson? Debating the MVP front-runners ahead of Ravens-Bills

Updated Jan. 15, 2025 6:25 p.m. ET

The careers of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are inextricably linked. Both taken in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, the two quarterbacks arrived in the NFL facing serious, albeit very different, questions about their pro prospects. Seven years later, they're neck and neck in the league's QB hierarchy. And the next chapter in their playoff journeys will come against each other.

So, who will come out on top?

Allen's Bills host Jackson's Ravens in an AFC divisional-round showdown Sunday night, the marquee matchup of the weekend. Buffalo and Baltimore breezed through the wild card, beating Denver and Pittsburgh by double digits, respectively.

Allen and Jackson, the MVP front-runners, are both incidentally aiming for their second AFC championship game appearances. In their lone previous postseason matchup against each other, in the 2020 divisional round, Allen and Buffalo came out on top.

FOX Sports writers Ben Arthur and Henry McKenna got together to compare and contrast the careers of both superstar quarterbacks through the lens of this season, their upcoming bout and their respective legacies.

Moderator: Henry, you had a story earlier this week examining the MVP cases of both QBs. It was really insightful — except for the part where you didn't pick a winner. We're not letting you off the hook here. Who'd get your vote?

McKenna: Well, shoot. I did, indeed, avoid picking an MVP — because I'd pick someone and regret not voting for the other. I'd go with Josh Allen. By a hair.

I've seen all the numbers. Lamar Jackson has more touchdowns, higher expected points added (EPA) and fewer interceptions. Lamar has been more valuable on the stat sheet.

But when you entrench yourself in the film, there's so much to love about Allen's season. It's not just the remarkable throws or runs. It's the way he consistently dragged a roster filled with disappointing pass-catchers to the No. 2 seed in the AFC — while beating the king, Patrick Mahomes.

Arthur: I get the Josh Allen argument, and he's certainly had some all-time games and moments this season. But I think we should all be cautious of potential fatigue when it comes to Lamar Jackson winning a possible third MVP.

Let's look at the facts: He's been significantly better than he was last year, when he won his second league MVP. He had a 41-4 passing touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio, which is the highest by a quarterback in a season with 30-plus passing touchdowns in NFL history. He also surpassed Michael Vick for the most career rushing yards by a quarterback. Jackson is not only the gold standard when it comes to being a dual-threat quarterback, but he also somehow takes significant steps forward every season.

My vote (if I had one) would go to Jackson.

McKenna: See, there's an interesting question in there. Is Lamar the golden standard for dual-threat quarterbacking? I'm genuinely not sure. Because you can contend that Allen is just as dangerous — and maybe even more dangerous as a runner.

I brought up the Bills' win over the Chiefs. How did Allen close the door on Kansas City? With a 26-yard run on a fourth-down conversion. Mind-blowingly clutch. And he did it with his legs.

He's a bash brother. He throws his 250 pounds around in a way that will make defenders hesitant to hit him by the fourth quarter. And even though the Bills have clearly asked him to reduce his carry total (which has reduced his yardage total), he still puts up TDs. He had 12 rushing touchdowns this year (and he has 27 over the last two regular seasons).

Arthur: When I say gold standard, I mean raw stats. But I think we can agree that both guys are PHENOMENAL at dual-threat quarterbacking. It really just comes down to the style you prefer.

Allen (as you mentioned, Henry), is more of a bruiser. Jackson, at 205 pounds, is more elusive and shifty. I'm more in favor of the latter — fewer hits on the quarterback — but I think you can argue that Allen's style instills more fear in the defense, and probably galvanizes an offense to a higher degree.

There truly isn't a wrong answer between them this season, as both QBs appear to be peaking. But which of them do you think ultimately has a higher ceiling?

Arthur: I'd have to go with Jackson.

I think his dual-threat style is more sustainable over time (Jackson's shiftiness tends to lead to fewer hits) and his growth as a passer has been significant over the past couple of years with Todd Monken calling plays. His passing touchdowns have increased four years in a row. His yards per attempt has gone up five consecutive years. It feels like Jackson hasn't hit his apex — even if that's crazy to say.

McKenna: Ben, I'm with you there. We haven't seen a guy like Allen since Cam Newton. And my goodness, Newton's production declined quickly. He played only 11 seasons and his production was elite for a fraction of that.

I'm not saying that's exactly where Allen's career is headed. But I think there's legit concern about attrition. It's sort of hard to imagine that these guys are still ascending, but you're right, there's more potential to tap in with Lamar.

OK, so with the Bills about to host the Ravens, which QB do you guys expect to play better this weekend?

McKenna: Well, it'll again be in the eye of the beholder.

I think the Bills will win because of Allen's game management. He might not rack up the most yards or even the most touchdowns. But he'll get the first downs and touchdowns at the game's most crucial moments. Jackson will have a better stat line. He might even play better. But the Bills will be heading to the AFC title game.

Arthur: I'm going to say Jackson plays better and the Ravens get the win.

I'm sure he's well aware of the narrative about him; that he's just a regular-season performer, considering his 3-4 playoff record. I think the AFC Championship Game loss last season should be a motivator, too. I imagine he'll put a lot of pressure on himself on this stage while competing against a quarterback of Josh Allen's caliber — and succeed having a backfield mate like Derrick Henry at his side.

Which QB do you trust more with the game on the line?

Arthur: Allen is the easy answer for me. The Bills have constantly fallen short in the playoffs over the past few years, but it hasn't been because of Allen's inability to meet the moment. We've seen the epic duels he's had with Mahomes, for example.

Jackson, meanwhile, just hasn't played to his standard in the postseason. I think there's a good chance of that changing this year with more help, but he just doesn't have the résumé of proof yet.

McKenna: I'm with you, Ben. I like the way Allen has performed in the clutch this year. I know it's convenient for me to bring up stats when I largely discounted them earlier. But I'm going to do it anyway.

On third and fourth downs this year, Allen has a total EPA of 42.7 with .28 EPA per dropback. In the same situations, Lamar's total EPA is 30.1 with .21 EPA per dropback.

If his All-Pro first-team selection is any indication, Jackson is on track for his third MVP award. But neither has won a Super Bowl, of course. Who do you predict will be regarded as the greater quarterback when it's all said and done?

McKenna: It's a really tough one. I've been headstrong on Allen's chances to win it all this year. He's had slightly more success against Mahomes. And if either of these QBs are to build "greatness," they'll have to do it with a Super Bowl. (Or many.)

But I can't shake our conversation about the length of each QB's career. About Lamar's upside. It helps, too, that John Harbaugh has won a Super Bowl and might even hold off retiring until Lamar is done. That means something. (Compare that to Allen and coach Sean McDermott, who has no Super Bowls to his name — and might someday lose his job if he can't deliver.)

I'll take Lamar.

Arthur: I'm going to say Jackson, as well.

He already has three first-team All-Pro selections and is expected to get his third MVP, too. Allen doesn't have any of either — and as we've pointed out, Jackson seems to have more long-term upside. I think Allen is going to have to edge Jackson substantially in the ring count to be considered "greater" by the end of their careers, and it's hard to imagine that given Mahomes' presence in the AFC.

Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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