National Football League

Justin Herbert's brilliance might have Chargers poised to overtake Chiefs

Published Oct. 13, 2021 8:57 a.m. ET

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Success in the NFL, let alone sustained success, is never promised.

But if there was one team that appeared to be destined for a long run of consistent winning, it was the Kansas City Chiefs.

Led by a young, once-in-a-generation talent in Patrick Mahomes and one of the league's greatest offensive minds in Andy Reid, the Chiefs had the makings of a team that would continue to add to the Super Bowl appearances they made the past two seasons.

But after a 2-3 start to this season, Kansas City is currently in last place in the AFC West.

And the dilemma for the Chiefs is not just that they are struggling, but that there is also an upstart team and quarterback in the AFC West threatening to take the division crown the Chiefs have worn over the past five seasons.

That team is the Los Angeles Chargers, led by Justin Herbert.

Herbert, the reigning 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year, has taken his game to even higher levels in 2021, ranking fourth in the league in passing yards (1,576) and third in passing touchdowns (13).

His individual dominance has translated into team success, too, as the Chargers are 4-1 and rank sixth in scoring offense (28.4 PPG) and third in passing yards (303.0 YPG).

The Chargers' high-powered aerial attack mirrors what the Chiefs accomplished with Mahomes the past three seasons. As a result, Colin Cowherd believes that Herbert has closed the gap between himself and the Chiefs' MVP quarterback.

He detailed why on "The Herd."

"Remember, Herbert is bigger, stronger, and he is athletic, too," said Cowherd. "So I don't see the gap that everybody else does. At this point saying Mahomes is better than Herbert is fair. I think Patrick Mahomes today is better than Justin Herbert. I just don't see this gap that everybody else does."

When you compare the past 20 regular-season games for both Mahomes and Herbert, you can see how Cowherd came to his conclusion.

In his past 20 starts, Herbert has completed 66.7% of his passes for 5,912 yards, 44 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and a 99.9 passer rating.

Mahomes, in his past 20 starts, has completed 67.1% of his passes for 6,230 yards, 54 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a 107.7 passer rating.

The big difference between the two is wins, as the Chargers have gone 10-10 in those 20 games, while the Chiefs are 16-4. 

When shrinking the sample size to the past nine starts, however, Herbert has actually performed better, going 8-1 and becoming the first Chargers quarterback to throw at least three touchdown passes in three straight games.

Mahomes, on the other hand, has gone 6-3 while throwing an interception in four consecutive starts for just the second time in his career.

For the first time in his career, Mahomes appears "human," while Herbert is reaching superstar status.

For Herbert and the Chargers to truly take over the AFC West, they need to not only win the division, but produce the same type of playoff success that the Chiefs have become known for in the Mahomes era.

The Chiefs have hosted three consecutive AFC championship games and have played in consecutive Super Bowls, winning one.

The Chargers have a lot of work to do in that regard, but with Herbert at the helm, L.A. might be signaling a new era out west.

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National Football League

Patrick Mahomes

Justin Herbert

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Colin Cowherd

The Herd with Colin Cowherd