Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson is headed to IR. What do the Vikings do now?

Updated Oct. 12, 2023 2:21 p.m. ET

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Carmen Vitali

NFC North Reporter

Superstar Vikings receiver and 2022 Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson is headed to injured reserve with a hamstring injury, meaning he'll be out for at least four weeks.

For 1-4 Minnesota, this couldn't be worse news.

"Yeah, with hamstrings, I don't want to speculate on exactly when [his return will] be," head coach Kevin O'Connell said. "But I know he feels pretty good considering where some guys feel at this point in the process, having [suffered the injury] just this past Sunday."

O'Connell mentioned later in the press conference that he is hopeful to open Jefferson's 21-day practice window after the minimum of four games.

Jefferson has been responsible for over 25% of the Vikings' target share through the first five games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins targeted him 53 times, and Jefferson came down with 36 catches. He has 571 yards this season, which ranks third in the NFL through five weeks, behind only Tyreek Hill and Los Angeles Rams rookie phenom Puka Nacua. Jefferson is averaging a career-high 114.2 yards per game this season, but he was held to three catches for 28 yards on six targets before leaving Sunday's loss to Kansas City in the fourth quarter.

It's the result of Cousins trusting Jefferson implicitly — a trust that was built during these two years under O'Connell, thanks to what the Vikings call "opportunity balls." That basically translates to throwing Jefferson the ball even when he's not open because Jefferson can make the play.

Cousins is a measured quarterback, though you wouldn't know it from his uncharacteristically turnover-heavy start to the season. He's thrown four interceptions so far this season and fumbled the ball five times. It took time to build the trust Cousins has in Jefferson; who takes over now and how soon will that trust come? 

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Rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison is off to a good start. He's caught 19 passes for 249 yards and three touchdowns. But he's been targeted just 29 times. Addison is supposed to be the complement, not the guy. Is he ready for the larger role?

Then there's tight end T.J. Hockenson, who has been one of the Vikings' most clutch players since arriving at last year's trade deadline. Hockenson has 90 catches for 773 yards in 15 games for Minnesota and plenty of them have resulted in extended drives or extra chances. Hockenson has been targeted 10 times on third down this year, and he's caught eight of them for 82 yards, according to StatsBomb. This season, Hockenson has a 76.9% catch rate, which would be a career high for him. Maybe that's where Cousins can place his trust.

But these numbers for both Addison and Hockenson have been with Jefferson on the field. Jefferson is a ‘field-tilting' player, he forces defenses to pay a lot of attention to him. Jefferson routinely draws double- and in some cases triple-teams that leave other players on the field with favorable one-on-one matchups, if not uncovered entirely. 

Without Jefferson's presence, the entire offense will need to adapt.

"The fact of the matter is we have to change the way we game-plan when we do have Justin available just because of the way the breakdowns work, and you think you're going to get all these coverages that have shown up, and then we show up to the game and we get kind of a J.J. program consistently," O'Connell told SiriusXM NFL Radio this week. "Really dive into it from a standpoint of anticipating how he might be taken away and how that affects everybody else and where we require Jordan [Addison] or K.J. [Osborn] or T.J. Hockenson or Josh [Oliver] to go win in the pass game versus premier looks when so much coverage is dedicated to Justin."

That change could come with a lot more involvement for the last two players O'Connell talked about. The Vikings are pretty balanced in their personnel groupings so far this season. They run 11 personnel (1 running back, 1 tight end, 3 wide receivers) at the 19th-highest rate, meaning they spend 45.2% of the time in other alignments.

Others in the same Shanahan-McVay system that O'Connell comes from have incorporated a lot of multiple-tight-end sets. In the case of the Green Bay Packers under Matt LaFleur last year, they used 12 personnel at the second-highest rate in the league. Minnesota is already 13th in the league in 12 personnel usage this season, putting two tight ends on the field 20.5% of the time. I'd expect that to go up during Jefferson's absence, especially considering Cousins' trust in Hockenson.

Vikings expected to be sellers at the NFL Trade Deadline

The Vikings have been competitive in every game they've played this year. Each loss has come by eight points or less. All they needed to do was stop making critical mistakes; they are dead last in turnover margin this season at minus-9, and they could still finish with a respectable record. Jefferson's injury throws a wrench into that and has left Minnesota between a rock and a hard place.

How are they supposed to get things going with their best player off the field?

Then there was this from ESPN's Adam Schefter, which makes it sound like the fact that Jefferson doesn't have a long-term contract with the Vikings is actually a point of contention, despite what other reports have indicated.

Jefferson, or likely his agent, have to know the Vikings likely won't do as well without Jefferson on the field, which now gives Jefferson leverage when it comes to his negotiation. As if that price tag wasn't already going up.

The fact that Minnesota didn't lock in Jefferson at this year's receiver price was a miss. Jefferson is going to expect the richest contract in NFL history at his position, and he'd be justified in that expectation. That number only figures to increase — especially if any other No. 1 receiver deals get signed before Jefferson's. CeeDee Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase come to mind as players who could up the asking price in the near future.

If Jefferson has the added tangible consequences of not being on the field to help his case, the Vikings have done themselves no favors. But if they were already planning to make him the highest-paid receiver, perhaps the point is moot. And maybe they can use this absence to hammer out some more contract talks to get Jefferson his deal before the next offseason (and before the next receiver signs).

Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.

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Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson

Kirk Cousins

Jordan Addison

T.J. Hockenson

Carmen Vitali