Kansas City Chiefs offense is peaking at the right time
The Kansas City Chiefs are the AFC West champions and the number two seed in the AFC. It’s been a little bit of a roller coaster ride during the 2016 season, but the end result is a 12-4 record (which is the third best record in all of the NFL) and a first round bye in the playoffs. Everything went KC’s way on Sunday as they defeated the San Diego Chargers 37-27 and got the help they needed as the Denver Broncos beat the quarterbackless Oakland Raiders 24-6. While the Chiefs have found creative ways to win all season it was often a necessity to do so because their offense was struggling. That hasn’t been the case down the stretch with the offense finally seeming to find its stride. That is very good news as the Chiefs head into the playoffs.
Through fourteen games the Kansas City Chiefs were averaging 22.8 points per game and converting a miserable 34.8% of their third downs. In their final two games of the season the Chiefs scored 35 points per game and converted 58.6% of their third downs. The Chiefs defense is good, but I don’t know that they are elite enough to win a Super Bowl if the offense is only scoring 23 points and converting 35% of their third downs. However, if you pair KC’s defense (and special teams for that matter) with an offense that is putting up 35 points and converting over 50% of their third downs then I truly believe that the Chiefs can play with any team in the NFL.
If the Chiefs put up these numbers against two terrible defenses then there might be reason for doubt, but the Chiefs biggest offensive outburst of the season came last week against the Denver Broncos who have one of the best defenses in all of the NFL. The Chiefs actually put up numbers against Denver that no team had in years as they racked up 33 points and 484 yards against the defending Super Bowl champs. If they can produce against that defense they have the potential to produce against any defense they will see in the playoffs.
The three best defenses in the playoffs this year are probably Houston’s, New England’s, and Seattle’s. Here are how their numbers this season compare to Denver’s.
Denver: 18.6 PPG, 316.1 YPG, 4.7 YPP, 36% third downs allowed
Houston: 20.5 PPG, 301.3 YPG, 5.1 YPP, 38% third downs allowed
New England: 15.6 PPG, 326.4 YPG, 5.2 YPP, 37% third downs allowed
Seattle: 18.2 PPG, 318.7 YPG, 5.0 YPP, 39% third downs allowed
As you can see, none of the potential top defenses that the Chiefs may face in the playoffs are better than Denver’s. New England has a clear advantage in points allowed, but the rest of their numbers are actually worse than Denver’s. So I’ll say it again, if the offense that has shown up the past two weeks shows up in the playoffs the Chiefs can compete with anyone.
So what is the key to Kansas City maintaining their offensive success? To me it comes down to two key things.
1. Get the ball into the hands of the playmakers.
After the loss to the Titans I wrote (or ranted) about how KC’s biggest problem was not utilizing their best weapons, particularly Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. While Kelce may not have had a big day against the Chargers, it wasn’t really needed and overall KC has done a MUCH better job of utilizing their best players the past two weeks. The triple threat of Travis Kelce, Jeremy Maclin, and Tyreek Hill give the Chiefs enough offensive firepower to threaten even the elite defenses of the NFL. While you don’t want to ignore an open target just to force the ball to these three, too often earlier in the season the Chiefs seemed to be giving guys like Albert Wilson and Demetrius Harris as many designed targets as they did their far superior teammates.
Look, kudos to Albert Wilson on his big play this week, but that doesn’t mean the Chiefs should game plan an equal amount of touches for him as Tyreek Hill. Harris has had a couple of key plays this season but the plan should be to get Kelce the ball early and often and Harris is a fallback option if the defense takes Kelce away. I also feel its safe to say that the Chiefs are now clearly a passing team. While I wasn’t sure I could get behind that even just six weeks ago, I think its clearly who they are now.
Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West can give the Chiefs enough balance in the run game to compliment the trio of elite weapons in the pass game but I don’t feel confident that the Chiefs can put the game on Ware and West’s shoulders and ride them to victory. The Chiefs now pass to open up the run game as opposed to the other way around. So yes, the Chiefs need enough touches for the running backs to keep the defense honest, but the number one goal has to be to utilize the abilities of Kelce, Maclin, and Hill. They are the guys that make this offense explosive and hard to handle.
2. Alex Smith has to be a threat to run.
I think one of the underrated aspects of the Chiefs offense the past two weeks has been the return of Alex Smith the running quarterback. Through 14 games Smith had just 67 yards rushing on the season (after almost 500 yards rushing in 2015). In the final two games Smith matched his total from the first 14 games with exactly 67 yards rushing. While a little over 30 yards a game may not seem like a huge deal, it really makes a massive difference in KC’s offense. I feel it is one of the biggest reasons we’ve seen such a dramatic jump in KC’s third down conversion percentage. It’s not just when Smith can take off and pick up a third down either. It’s when he takes off on second down instead of throwing the ball away and changes a 3rd and 10 to a 3rd and 4. He’s also come through with a rushing touchdown in each of the last two games. If linebackers and safeties have to hesitate for just a split second to account for Smith’s potential to run it allows guys like Maclin and Kelce that extra foot of separation they need to get the ball in their hands.
Alex Smith has been incredibly accurate the past two weeks completing 71.9% of his passes. While he will never strike fear into a defense with his passing prowess, if he completes around 70% of his passes AND is a threat to take off and run then KC’s offense becomes very hard to stop. If the majority of those passes are going to playmakers like Kelce, Maclin, and Hill then the Chiefs are going to score some points on offense. Period.
I don’t know what the playoffs will bring for this Chiefs team. I know I love their playmaking defense (especially if Houston is back). I know they have one of the best special teams units in all of the NFL. The only question mark has been the offense and the past two weeks leading into the playoffs that offense has looked MUCH better. Andy Reid now has an extra week to get them ready and if the results are anything like they’ve been to end the season I like Kansas City’s chances.
So what do you think Addicts? Do you believe this offense can get the job done in the playoffs? Are you worried the offense that we saw against the Titans may rear its ugly head again at the worst possible time? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below. Until next week, take a moment and enjoy the fact that your team is 12-4, are the AFC West division champs, and have earned a first round bye and a home playoff game at Arrowhead.
As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!
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