National Football League

Kansas City Chiefs struggling: Five biggest issues for the AFC champs

Updated Oct. 25, 2021 10:24 a.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

The Kansas City Chiefs suffered their worst defeat in their four seasons with Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback, losing to the Tennessee Titans 27-3 on Sunday. Panic is setting in around Chiefs Kingdom.

How did the two-time defending AFC champions get here? Let's take a look at the Chiefs' five biggest issues.

1. Winning consistently is hard

We need to acknowledge that great teams have down seasons. Winning each week is tough in the NFL, let alone for multiple years in a row.

The Chiefs have been elite. They have made three straight AFC Championship Games and two straight Super Bowls, one of which they won to snap a 50-year title drought.

They’ve won games with a high-powered offense that has finished first, third and second the last three seasons in Offensive DVOA.

The Kansas City defense was bad in 2018, improved considerably in 2019 (especially in the second half of the season) and then regressed a bit last season.

Whatever warts the Chiefs had, Mahomes always has made up the difference. He won the league MVP in his first full season in 2018 and hadn’t shown any signs of regression heading into 2021.

The Chiefs entered this season having won 24 of the past 26 games Mahomes had started, with the two losses coming in a shootout to the Raiders last season and the Super Bowl defeat to Tampa Bay in which their offensive line was ravaged by injuries.

They deserved to be the AFC favorite heading into this season and the expectations were rightfully high. But this season has been a mess. Nothing has gone correctly against quality opponents. They take one step forward and two steps back. It’s just one of those seasons. But we need to explore why.

2. Mistakes in player development and acquisition

I have a deep amount of respect for the Chiefs organization. I played for Andy Reid in 2013, his first season at the helm for the Chiefs. My brother played in Kansas City for five seasons, including the Super Bowl championship season.

While it’s difficult to speak poorly of the organization, it’s also hard to ignore the Chiefs' draft picks and player additions since taking Mahomes with their first pick in 2017. Since the Mahomes pick, Kansas City has largely struck out in the draft, and its roster is suffering.

Here are a few highlights:

2017: Tanoh Kpassagnon was a second-round defensive end who had seven sacks in four seasons with the Chiefs and is now In New Orleans. He clearly didn’t develop into the pass rusher they expected. Kareem Hunt was an excellent find in the third round, but he was rightfully released by the Chiefs after video surfaced of him physically assaulting a woman. The rest of the class didn’t provide much.

2018: Without a first-round pick, the Chiefs went heavy on defense, taking four defensive players in rounds 2-4. Only Derrick Nnadi is left from those picks. The rest have washed out or found other teams.

2019: The Chiefs added Mecole Hardman in the second round to be the "Robin" to Tyreek Hill’s "Batman." Hardman has been underwhelming for his draft slot and can’t be relied upon to be the second receiving option. Juan Thornhill has been up and down, but the coaching staff doesn’t seem to trust him at safety. The rest of the draft class doesn't play meaningful minutes.

2020: It's hard to judge this class as it has only been two seasons, but I can say that drafting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the final pick of the first round is a bust. Even if Edwards-Helaire returns healthy and ready to roll next season, I can't see how the Chiefs get the value from this selection. Other players in this draft class look promising with Willie Gay Jr., Lucas Niang and L'Jarius Sneed starting to get more playing time. We have time to judge them.

2021: This draft class has been the Chiefs' best since 2017. They added Creed Humphrey at center and guard Trey Smith in the sixth round. They are studs and outstanding picks. Linebacker Nick Bolton has started all seven games this season, and tight end Noah Gray is a backup learning his role.

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Free agency and trades: The Chiefs' addition of Tyrann Mathieu before the 2019 season was impactful, a great fit for the defense and one of the team leaders. Home run.

The same can't be said for Frank Clark, the biggest liability on the team. The Chiefs traded a first-, second- and third-round pick for Clark in 2019 and then gave him a monster extension — guaranteeing him $63 million — before he ever played a down for the team.

Clark currently has the seventh-highest cap charge in the NFL and the most for a defensive player. In 2019, Clark was ranked 40th by Pro Football Focus and had an impactful postseason as the Chiefs won the Super Bowl. But last season, he ranked 57th out of 61 edge rushers with at least 50% of snaps. And this season he’s ranked 100th. The trade and extension have been a long-term failure.

Who's to blame for the misses in the draft and free agency? I’m not a scout, and outside of Humphrey and Smith I did not study these players enough to answer that question. Is the blame for these failures on the front office? Did they draft poor football players? Or are they good players who the coaching staff has failed to develop? The answer to questions like these is always something in the middle. Until the Chiefs start stacking classes as they did in 2020-2021, they will continue to be short on talent.

3. Way too many mistakes

The Chiefs have simply made too many errors. They lead the NFL with 17 turnovers, already more than they committed in 2020 (16) and 2019 (15), and only one less than the entire 2018 season. The turnovers are partly bad luck, but also a product of poor play — fumbles, dropped passes and Mahomes being too loose with the ball.

Mahomes has far fewer turnover-worthy plays than some on social media would have you believe, but it appears most of them are actually ending up as turnovers. It’s doubtful to continue this way, but they've been a killer.

What has been impressive is the offense's production despite the turnovers. The Chiefs entered Sunday second in two efficiency rankings. They were first in points per drive, scoring opportunities per drive and more. All of this while leading the league in percentage of drives ending in a turnover.

The closest comparison is the Kurt Warner-led Rams, who from 1999-2001 led the league in offense but also in drives ending with a turnover. Until this season, it hadn’t mattered.

Lastly, the Chiefs have had other issues, like untimely penalties and poor coaching decisions. These are just self-inflicted wounds that haven’t been covered up by No. 15.

4. A porous defense

This is a by-product of point No. 2 above. Outside of Chris Jones, who was moved from defensive tackle to end, the Chiefs have no pass rush. They are ranked 32nd in pass rush by Pro Football Focus.

The Chiefs' run defense is also ranked 32nd. They are ranked 18th in coverage and 16th in tackling. They started the season blowing assignments at an alarming rate, but they’ve cleaned that up lately. The defense allowed one second-half touchdown to the Bills and only 13 points to Washington. It allowed 27 to the Titans in the first half, but to be fair some of that was a result of short fields after turnovers.

The Chiefs don’t need their defense to be elite. They just need it to get stops and force some turnovers. Just don’t stink.

5. Mahomes and the offense can't cover all the issues

Let me make this extremely clear: Mahomes is the last reason the Chiefs are in this position.

For years now, Mahomes has carried this franchise as his surrounding talent has been depleted. He has covered up for poor roster decisions, no doubt about it. But he has not played up to his standard for parts of this season.

Once again, it typically does not hurt the Chiefs. But when he’s not able to cover them in quite the same way, the light gets shined more brightly on him.

Mahomes has pressed this season as the team (defense) hasn’t performed as it did the previous three seasons. Defenses are playing a bunch of Cover-2 and 2-Man, daring the Chiefs to dink and dunk down the field.

Mahomes also has reverted to escaping the pocket before it’s needed and not trusting his blocking unit. It’s something he discussed being a point of emphasis for him in the offseason, and I praised him for improvement in this area earlier this year. But it’s becoming a concern again.

When the defense isn’t able to stop the opponent, it becomes more difficult for Mahomes to remain patient. Every time the Chiefs punt and the defense immediately allows a score, the pressure on the offense mounts. Rinse and repeat.

On Sunday in Nashville, the offense looked broken. Everyone, including the offensive line, had breakdowns. It was ugly. But the offense is not what got the Chiefs in this mess, and some of these issues are a quick fix away from changing.

While it might feel like the Chiefs' season is over, that's not the case.

It’s as simple as fixing things the Chiefs have control over. Play smart. Take what is there on offense. No more blown assignments. And the bad luck with turnovers is bound to change.

If the Chiefs stay positive and eliminate mistakes, they can get right back in the mix in an AFC in which every team has at least two losses.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.